April 24, 2024

Best Batter Today

Juan Soto of the Yankees remains atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after he singled in four trips in a 4-3 win over the Athletics. His lead is down to six points as Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers homered and walked in a 4-1 win over the Nationals. His teammate, Mookie Betts, posted a one for five in the game and drops to fourth place.

Josh Naylor of the Guardians shows up in third place as he singled in four trips in a 4-1 win over the Red Sox. Marcell Ozuna rounds out the top five after a one for three with a walk in a 5-0 victory over the Marlins.

Two hitters tie for best game score of the day, a 78. Mike Tauchman of the Cubs and Riley Greene of the Tigers each went two for three with two home runs and a walk. Detroit downed Tampa Bay 4-2, Greene’s two-run homer in the eighth inning pivotal in the win. He is a good example of why one should not look exclusively at batting average. While he is only hitting .247, his OBP stands at .402 and his slugging at .502.

Tauchman’s first home run, a three-run shot, capped a five run first inning. He is batting down in the order, but his .397 OBP might make the Cubs consider moving him higher. For his career, his OBP stands at .343.

April 24, 2024

Wednesday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

April 23, 2024

Fried Fish

Max Fried pitched a masterful game against the Marlins, earning a shutout. Fried walked none and stuck out six, allowing just three hits. All the hits were singles. Fried got off to a slow start this season, coming into this game with a 7.71 ERA, with poor K and BB rates. He turned that around tonight.

April 23, 2024

Two Hits an Inning

Diamondbacks collect ten hits in the first five innings against the Cardinals to take a 10-1 lead in the game. Each of the Diamondbacks nine batters collected a hit. The team added three walks and a six for nine with runners in scoring position to bring home the runs.

April 23, 2024

Quite a Lively Pitcher

Ben Lively of the Guardians gave the team a great start against the Red Sox. He walked none and struck out seven in 6 1/3 innings, although he left trailing 1-0. The Guardians scored four runs after that as the team took the game 4-1. Lively lowers his ERA to 2.38 in 11 1/3 innings. He’s walked just one batter this year.

Maybe he should meet Tessie:

April 23, 2024

Games of the Day

Tanner Houck and the Red Sox face the Guardians and Ben Lively in Cleveland. Houck stands near the top of the Tom Tango Cy Young Tracker Points list. He walked just two batters in 26 2/3 innings, and allowed just one home run. Lively pitched well in his first start, striking out seven and walking one in five innings.

Another pitcher doing well with Cy Young Points, Paul Blackburn, leads the Athletics against the Yankees and Marcus Stroman. Blackburn, with a high .315 BABIP for his career, held opponents to a .239 mark so far in 2024. Stroman owns a .250 opposition BABIP, important for him since he does not strikeout a ton of batters.

Finally, Luis Severino of the Mets battles Logan Webb of the Giants. A good number of batters reached base against Severino (.319 OBP allowed), but his ERA is good as opponents hit just .130 against him with runners in scoring position. Webb continues to be good at keeping the ball in park, as he allowed just one home run in 30 2/3 innings this year.

April 23, 2024

Lots of Shutouts?

It feels like the number of shutouts are high this season, but early in the year offense tends to be low. The majors saw 46 shutouts in 682 games, 6.74%. That’s lower than each of the previous three seasons through 26 days. The 2021 season was the highest of the 30 team era, with 59 shutouts in 658 games, 8.97%. The 2022 season came in a 7.21%, with 2023 at 7.89%. The 2024 season ranks ninth in the 30 team ERA, high, but not terribly so.

April 23, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.343 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.335 — Mookie Betts batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.329 — Freddie Freeman batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.320 — Will Smith batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.303 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.295 — Luis Arraez batting against Max Fried.
0.291 — Michael Harris II batting against Trevor Rogers.
0.287 — Miguel Rojas batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.287 — Amed Rosario batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.285 — Jose Altuve batting against Jordan Wicks.

Corbin tends to bring out the best in hitters. Of the top three, however, Betts owns the best record against Corbin, seven for fourteen with two strikes and four extra-base hits. Freeman faced Corbin a lot, and is 9 for 44 with a .314 OBP, so I get the feeling Corbin pitches around the slugger. Ohtani is 1 for 6.

Here are the NN picks:

0.329, 0.730 — Freddie Freeman batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.343, 0.729 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.295, 0.725 — Luis Arraez batting against Max Fried.
0.335, 0.722 — Mookie Betts batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.291, 0.707 — Michael Harris II batting against Trevor Rogers.
0.285, 0.703 — Jose Altuve batting against Jordan Wicks.
0.287, 0.695 — Amed Rosario batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.320, 0.695 — Will Smith batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.278, 0.692 — Ronald Acuna batting against Trevor Rogers.
0.272, 0.688 — William Contreras batting against Bailey Falter.

The consensus puts Ohtani and Freeman as the top two picks against the lefty. Ohtani owns a seven game hits streak during which he’s hitting .440. A tough choice today.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 23, 2024

Best Batter Today

Juan Soto of the Yankees sees his lead in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings shrink to ten points after he posted an 0 for 4 with two strikeouts in a 2-0 Athletics win. The Dodgers did not play on Monday, so Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts remain second and third respectively. Josh Naylor and the Guardians did not play as well, and Naylor remains fourth.

The Braves did play, and Marcell Ozuna drew a walk in four plate appearances in the 3-0 win over the Marlins, One of four shutouts on the day. Ozuna ranks fifth.

The best game score of the day belonged to Mark Canha of the Tigers. He collected two singles and a home run, helping Detroit beat Tampa Bay 7-1. That was good for a score of 75. Canha upped his strong OBP game this season, currently holding a .396 mark versus a .351 career average. He also added some power as nine of his 18 hits went for extra bases.

April 23, 2024

Tuesday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

April 22, 2024

Games of the Day

The Tigers visit the Rays with Tarik Skubal facing Zack Littell. Skubal sports a deadly combination of a high strikeout rate with a low BABIP of .207. Littell’s BABIP comes in at .361, but most of the hits against him came without runners in scoring position.

Yusei Kikuchi and Brady Singer square off in Kansas City as the Blue Jays play the Royals. Kikuchi appears to have added a curve ball to his pitches, throwing the slider less. He’s only allowed one home run as his groundball rate went up. Singer’s BABIP early in the season stands at .182, a big reason he allowed just 13 hits in 23 1/3 innings. He’s throwing more four-seam fastballs this season, giving his opponents a new look.

Enjoy!

April 22, 2024

Weekly Look at Offense

Every Monday Baseball Musings compares offense to the same point in the previous season. Through three full weeks, the 2024 season produced 8.89 runs per game compared to 9.14 runs per game in 2023. All three-true-outcome events are down. Home runs are down from 2.3 per game to 2.0 per game. Walks are down ever so slightly, by 0.01 per game. K’s are down from 17.5 per game to 17.1 per game. With strikeouts down, other hits are up, the ball in play in BABIP! The increase is small, 0.03 per game. We are getting lower scoring with more action.

The week was a poor one for offense, with only 8.16 runs per game. That’s the worst week three in the study that started in 2015. Both strikeouts and home runs collapsed, K’s coming in at 16.6 per game and HRs at 1.64 per game.

April 22, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.281 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Zack Littell.
0.278 — Nolan Arenado batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
0.277 — Luis Campusano batting against Austin Gomber.
0.272 — Manny Machado batting against Austin Gomber.
0.270 — Luis Arraez batting against Bryce Elder.
0.268 — Michael Harris II batting against Ryan Weathers.
0.268 — Jackson Merrill batting against Austin Gomber.
0.265 — Eloy Jimenez batting against Chris Paddack.
0.262 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Austin Gomber.
0.262 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Austin Gomber.

Carpenter doesn’t walk much but generates a high BABIP. That makes him a high BA, low OBP hitter, they who should be good at extending a hit streak.

Here are the NN picks:

0.270, 0.713 — Luis Arraez batting against Bryce Elder.
0.268, 0.693 — Michael Harris II batting against Ryan Weathers.
0.260, 0.683 — Ronald Acuna batting against Ryan Weathers.
0.281, 0.683 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Zack Littell.
0.277, 0.679 — Luis Campusano batting against Austin Gomber.
0.278, 0.679 — Nolan Arenado batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
0.258, 0.676 — Trea Turner batting against Hunter Greene.
0.244, 0.673 — Bo Bichette batting against Brady Singer.
0.272, 0.672 — Manny Machado batting against Austin Gomber.
0.250, 0.670 — William Contreras batting against Jared Jones.

A similar list, but ordered differently. The probabilities are remaining stubbornly low this year. Carpenter is the consensus top pick, with Arraez the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 22, 2024

Best Batter Today

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers moves into second place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings ahead of his teammate Mookie Betts. Ohtani collects two hits and a walk, including a home run in the 10-0 win over the Mets. Betts has a 1 for 3 day to drop to third place.

Juan Soto of the Yankees remains in first after drawing a walk in five plate appearances in a 5-4 victory over the Rays. Josh Naylor of the Guardians ranks fourth after collecting a double in the 6-2 win over the Athletics. Marcell Ozuna of the Braves drops to fifth as he hits his ninth home run of the season and draws a walk in the 6-4 Rangers win.

The best game score of the day belonged to Jordan Westburg of the Orioles, a 73. Westburg’s game is discussed here.

April 22, 2024

Monday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

April 21, 2024

Schwab Passes

I just heard on the Sunday Night broadcast that Howie Schwab died on Saturday. I worked with Howie for many years at ESPN. While I looked everything up on a computer, Howie would just try to know everything he could, so he could just pull out a fact as fast as possible. He would take media guides home and study them. He was a savant of statistics.

My thoughts go out to his family, friends, and all his colleague at ESPN.

April 21, 2024

Ohtani Record

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers hit the 176th home run of his MLB career. That’s the new record for a player born in Japan, passing Hideki Matsui. I’ll note that Matsui came to the majors in his age 29 season, at the end of his prime. Ohtani arrived at seasonal age 23, so he got to spend his entire prime in the major leagues.

The Dodgers beat the Mets 10-0.

April 21, 2024

Rocky Review

With two out in the bottom of the ninth in a game between the Mariners and the Rockies in Denver, catcher Jacob Stallings launched a ball to the wall in leftfield. At first, it looked like Seattle leftfielder Dylan Moore knocked the ball back into the park, Stallings reaching second on a double. There was some question, however, and it’s not clear if Bud Black asked for the review or the umpires took it upon themselves.

The replay showed that the ball hit a fan first, but the fan was reaching over and seemed to make contact with Moore. After a long review, the fan was called for interference, and Stallings was out. I think it was a good call.

The Mariners scored the first run of the game as they bat in the top of the tenth. Opponents shutout the Rockies in three of their last five games.

Update: Rockies score two runs in the bottom of the tenth to win game one of the doubleheader. No word if Gideon’s Bible had any hand in the Rockies revival.

April 21, 2024

Go Westburg, Young Bird

Jordan Westburg of the Orioles continues to impress as he gathered the hard half of the cycle in a 5-0 win over the Royals. His fifth home run and first triple of the season brings his slugging percentage up to .639. Eleven of his 24 hits went for extra bases. That gives him three triples for his career in 87 games.

April 21, 2024

No Starter, No Problem

Reds staring pitcher Frankie Montas left the game after three batters due to a line drive striking him. Six Reds relievers then shutdown the Angels for 8 2/3 innings to give Cincinnati a 3-0 win. Brent Suter took the long relief role, going 3 1/3 innings. Overall, the pen gave up six hits and four walks while striking out six.

Jose Soriano starter for the Angels, and took a no-hitter into the sixth inning. He fell apart, however, allowing three runs, two more than the Reds needed.

April 21, 2024

No Blow

The Nationals fail to blow a 6-0 lead and beat the Astros by that score on Sunday afternoon. Mitchell Parker made his second career start and shutout the Houston dynasty for seven innings. He allowed three hits and no walks while he struck out eight, gaining his second win.

The offense picked up eleven hits, ten of them singles. Even Nick Senzel‘s home run was a solo shot.

Washington is now just one game under.500, and the starting pitching is coming around. They own a 2.66 ERA in their last nine starts, and that includes three against the Dodgers and three against the Astros.

April 21, 2024

O’Hoppe to the Ballpark

Logan O’Hoppe of the Angels explores and keeps a journal about the ballparks he visits. Last week, on a off day in Boston, he bought a bleacher seat to Fenway!

April 21, 2024

Games of the Day

The Rays finish their series at the Yankees with Aaron Civale facing Luis Gil. He’s done a good job of keeping opponents off base with four walks and 17 hits allowed in 23 innings. That helped mitigate the five home runs he allowed. Gil is a bit of an opposite. He walked a batter an inning this season (14), but only allowed six hits and no home runs for a reasonable 3.86 ERA.

The Diamondbacks and Giants send Merrill Kelly and Jordan Hicks to the mound. Kelly ranks eighth in the majors in ERA since the start of the 2023 season. His high strikeout rate helps him limit hits. Hicks adjusted to the starting role well, with a 1.57 ERA after four starts in 2024. His K rate dropped, but his walk and HR rates also dropped to compensate. He is using a split finger pitch more while reducing the use of his sinker.

The Sunday night game features Michael Lorenzen of the Rangers taking on Darius Vines of the Braves. Lorenzen make his second start of the season after five shutout innings in his first appearance. Vines, in 25 MLB innings, owns a 3.60 ERA despite rather poor three-true outcomes. FanGraphs puts his xFIP at 5.51 and his FIP at 4.69. He held opponents to a 3 for 20 with runners in scoring position.

Enjoy!

April 21, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.327 — Steven Kwan batting against Ross Stripling.
0.323 — Luis Arraez batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.308 — Josh Naylor batting against Ross Stripling.
0.294 — Bryan De La Cruz batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.293 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Louie Varland.
0.286 — Andres Gimenez batting against Ross Stripling.
0.286 — Tim Anderson batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.284 — Jose Ramirez batting against Ross Stripling.
0.283 — Salvador Perez batting against Cole Irvin.
0.280 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Cole Irvin.

Kwan leads the majors in hits with 34. Naylor owns an eight game hit streak in which he struck out just five times in 33 at bats.

Here are the NN picks:

0.323, 0.742 — Luis Arraez batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.327, 0.721 — Steven Kwan batting against Ross Stripling.
0.308, 0.708 — Josh Naylor batting against Ross Stripling.
0.275, 0.703 — Jose Altuve batting against Mitchell Parker.
0.293, 0.690 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Louie Varland.
0.259, 0.688 — Michael Harris II batting against Michael Lorenzen.
0.258, 0.682 — Freddie Freeman batting against Adrian Houser.
0.271, 0.682 — Bo Bichette batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.269, 0.681 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Adrian Houser.
0.280, 0.681 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Cole Irvin.

The .742 probability for Arraez is highest seen so far this season. A lot of that has to do with Hendrick’s struggles. In a three-season span, he profiles as a low walk, low strikeout pitcher who allows a higher BA. This season, he is simply getting hammered, and even a lot of regression to the mean his season hit average is estimated to be .275 in a .215 league.

Arraez and Kwan tie for the double down picks for today.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 21, 2024

Best Batter Today

Josh Naylor of the Guardians moves back into the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He went two for four with a home run, his sixth, in a 6-3 win over the Athletics. Naylor ranks fifth.

Still in the top slot sits Juan Soto of the Yankees. He picked up half the New York hits as he posted a two for four with a double in a 2-0, ten innings Rays win. Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers rank two and four respectively. Betts doubled and drew three walks in a 6-4 Mets win, while Ohtani singled and drew three walks.

Including Freddie Freeman the Mets walked the three most dangerous hitters in the Dodgers lineup eight times. There was clearly a defensive purpose to these walks. The rest of the lineup went two for 24 with two walks. New York took advantage of a Dodgers batting order that is not as deep as in recent years.

William Contreras of the Brewers rounds out the top five as he ranks fourth after a three for six game in a 12-5 win over the Cardinals.

Patrick Bailey of the Giants posted the highest game score of the day, an 84. The catcher went four for four with two doubles and a home run in the 7-3 win over the Diamondbacks. Bailey is doing a pretty good Buster Posey impression, with a .340/.397/.560 slash line. His minor league numbers indicate that level is not sustainable for him.

April 21, 2024

Sunday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

April 20, 2024

Wheeler Dealing

Zack Wheeler of the Phillies just finished six no-hit innings against the White Sox. He walked a batter and hit a batter, and the Phillies are up 5-0 in the middle of the sixth. So far, in this turn through the rotation, Phillies starters allowed 17 hits and two runs, one earned, in 35 1/3 innings.

Update: Wheeler walks the lead-off hitter in the seventh, but gets the next three to keep the no-hitter intact. He is now at 101 pitches for the game, and the Phillies extended their lead to 7-0. We’ll see if Wheeler emerges for the eighth.

Update: With one out in the seventh inning, Korey Lee of the White Sox singles past Bryce Harper for the first Chicago hit of the game. Wheeler leaves, leading 9-0. The starters have now allowed 18 hits in 36 2/3 innings this time through the rotation.

Update: The runner doesn’t score, so the two runs, one earned, stands.

April 20, 2024

Better Beer

I started the season under the impression that the Brewers decided to take a step back. The architect of the team went to the Mets. The manager, one of the best in the game, moved to the Cubs. They trade their best starting pitcher to the Orioles, and another fine starter was lost for the year to injury.

Yet after beating the Cardinals 12-5 on Saturday, the Brewers are 13-6, first place in the NL Central. On offense they are among the highest scoring teams in the NL, while on the defensive side, the pitchers and fielders are among the best teams at keeping runs off the board.

Saturday, they fell behind 3-0 early. The bullpen took over and pitched brilliantly, allowing one hit in 5 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, eight hitters in the lineup posted multi-hit games. There are a number of outstanding OBPs in the lineup early in the season. We’ll see if that lasts, but most teams wish they could take a step back like this.

April 20, 2024

The Hurt Hurt

Eight and two thirds innings into his major league career, Kyle Hurt* of the Dodgers goes on the illjured list.

*No relation to Frank Thomas.

The Los Angeles Dodgers placed right-hander Kyle Hurt on the 15-day injured list Saturday because of right shoulder inflammation.

The move is retroactive to Wednesday. In a corresponding move, the Dodgers recalled left-hander Nick Ramirez from Triple-A Oklahoma City.

Hurt, 25, made his first start in the major leagues on Tuesday, and in three games this season is 0-1 with a 1.35 ERA, one walk and three strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings.
ESPN.com

I hope he’s not hurt too long, even though he’s Hurt for life.

April 20, 2024

Games of the Day

The Astros take on the Nationals with Ronel Blanco facing Trevor Williams. Blanco allowed just six hits in 21 innings, and he’s not blowing away batters with strikeouts. Note the big change for his this season is a reduced dependency on the slider in favor of the change up. His better mix of these two pitches made each more effective. Williams has yet to allow a home run this season in 15 2/3 innings. Home runs were one of his weaknesses.

Aces square off in Kansas City as the Orioles send Corbin Burnes against Cole Ragans. Burnes fooled a lot of batters this season as he struck out 25 and walked only four in 23 2/3 innings. Ragans has yet to win a game despite his 1.93 ERA. Twice he pitched at least six shutout innings only to get a no-decision. One of those game was against Burnes. Ragans left with a 3-0 lead only to see the Royals bullpen allow four runs for the loss.

Enjoy!