May 12, 2024

Ramirez’s Discipline

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Jose Ramirez drew a walk and scored a run Sunday afternoon, helping the Guardians to a 7-0 win over the White Sox. That was just his tenth walk of year at the quarter mark of the season. Note that Ramirez often draws over 70 walks a year. His lack of walks is a big reason both his batting average and OBP are down this year, now standing at .235/280.

FansGraphs shows that Ramirez is swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone. He’s at about 33% for this season versus 24% for his career. He’s making contact at the same rate, but that means he’s putting balls in play that don’t have much of a chance at success.

I wonder if this is an eye problem. Many great hitters have excellent vision, but vision can worsen with age. Suddenly swinging at more pitches outside the zone strikes me as an eye problem, and I wonder if anyone in the Guardians organization suggest Ramriez get his vision checked.

May 12, 2024

Games of the Day

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The Diamondbacks and Orioles start the days games in Baltimore as Zac Gallen takes on Dean Kremer. Gallen stands send in wins in the majors since the start of the 2023 season. His 3.02 ERA in that time goes along with an outstanding set of three-true outcome rates. Kremer managed to limit line drives this season to 12.5% of batted balls, which seems like a very tough number to maintain.

The Nationals play at Fenway with MacKenzie Gore facing Brayan Bello. Gore makes just his third road start of the season. He allowed two runs in ten innings away from Washington with 18 K and just two walks. Bello abandoned the four-seam fastball this season, using his change up and slider more.

The Reds and Giants match-up on the west coast as Frankie Montas battles Kyle Harrison. Montas is averaging a little over four innings per game as he works his way back from shoulder surgery. Harrison cuts his ERA by almost a run compared to his first MLB season in 2023. Last year he gave up eight home runs in 34 2/3 innings, this year he allowed five home runs in 45 innings.

Enjoy!

May 12, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

It looks like a good day to double down on Brewers. Contreras owns a .409 BABIP for the season and a .348 mark for his career. The opposition has a .343 BABIP against Mikolas this season, which is very bad when a pitcher doesn’t strike out many batters.

Contreras is four for nine against Mikolas but with three strikeouts. Yelich has a long history here, and is 5 for 40.

The NN produces these batters with a high probability of getting a hit:

  • 0.314, 0.748 — Luis Arraez batting against Walker Buehler.
  • 0.341, 0.727 — William Contreras batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.297, 0.713 — Jose Altuve batting against Jack Flaherty.
  • 0.297, 0.704 — Jeremy Pena batting against Jack Flaherty.
  • 0.287, 0.703 — Alec Bohm batting against Braxton Garrett.
  • 0.289, 0.691 — Marcus Semien batting against Ty Blach.
  • 0.283, 0.690 — Ezequiel Duran batting against Ty Blach.
  • 0.267, 0.687 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Yu Darvish.
  • 0.282, 0.686 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Patrick Sandoval.
  • 0.286, 0.684 — Jonah Heim batting against Ty Blach.
  • 0.254, 0.684 — Freddie Freeman batting against Yu Darvish.

The NN is more bullish on the Texas teams than the Brewers. Arraez and Contreas tie for the top consensus pick. Ohtani left Saturday night’s game with back tightness and may not play.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 12, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Two players rise into the top five in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. William Contreras of the Brewers drew two walks and doubled in a 5-3 win over the Cardinals to move into fourth place. The Cardinals lost seven games in a row. Josh Naylor of the Guardians homered in a 3-1 White Sox win to take fifth place. The White Sox won their fourth game in a row.

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers drew a walk in a 5-0 win over the Padres to stay in second place. He did come out of the game with back tightness and is likely to miss Sunday’s game.

Juan Soto and Aaron Judge of the Yankees stand first and third respectively. Soto went 0 for 4 and Judge was hit by a pitch in a 7-2 Rays win. Meanwhile, Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena of the Rays posted the two highest game scores of the day, a 76 and 74 respectively. Diaz collect two doubles and a home run, while Arozarena doubled, homered, and walked. Both hitters are off to slow starts, Diaz showing little power and Arozarena doing a poor job of getting on base. Maybe they are starting to turn things around.

May 12, 2024

May 11, 2024

Doubles and Triples

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The Orioles beat the visiting Diamondbacks 5-4 in eleven innings. The box score showed Kevin Newman of Arizona and Ryan Mountcastle of Baltimore each hit a double and a triple in the game. I wondered how unusual this is. The Day by Day Database goes back to 1920, and in that time, this was the 601st game with at least two players having a double and a triple. It was also the third this season. In that same time frame, at least three players accomplish this in the same game 20 times.

One of those games was above three. On May 16, 1921, Washington visited Detroit, the Tigers taking the game 17-11. Five hitters in that game hit both a double and a triple, including Ty Cobb. Chick Shorten and Bert Cole joined Cobb on the Detroit side, while Duffy Lewis and Joe Judge delivered for Washington.

May 11, 2024

No-No Braves

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Braves pitchers just finished eight no-hit innings against the Mets. Max Fried started and went seven innings, walking three and striking out five. Joe Jimenez pitched the eighth, walking two and striking out two. The Braves come to bat in the ninth leading 3-0.

Update: It’s been 30 years since Kent Mercker threw the last Braves no-hitter. The team has one combined no hitter.

Update: The Braves score a run in the ninth to make the score 4-0. The Mets are scheduled to send Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and J.D. Martinez to the plate in the ninth. Raisel Iglesias comes on to pitch.

Update: Lindor gets ahead 2-0. On a full count, he swings and misses for the first out.

Update: Alonso falls behind 0-2. Fouling off a number of pitches, he evens the count, then grounds out to shortstop. Two down.

Update: Martinez hits the first pitch over the rightfield wall for a home run, ending the no-hitter and the shutout. The Braves lead 4-1.

Update: The Mets get two more hits, but the Braves win 4-1.

May 11, 2024

Skenes in the Game

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Paul Skenes strikes out the first two batters he faces in his Pittsburgh debut, hitting 101 and 102 on the radar gun. He does walk Cody Bellinger of the Cubs, but gets a long fly out to center to end the inning. The crowd, which does not appear to be a sell out, loved it.

Update: Skenes has control problems in the second inning, loading the bases on a hit by pitch, walk and single with one out. He gets a strikeout and ground out, however, to end the inning with no score in the game. Four of the first ten batters did reach against him.

Update: Connor Joe hits a three-run homer in the bottom of the third inning to put the Pirates up 3-0. Oneil Cruz goes back to back to make it 4-0. Excellent home run calls by the Pirates announcer.

Update: Nico Hoerner homers off Skenes in the top of the fourth inning, the first run off the rookie. The Pirates lead the Cubs 4-1.

Update: Skenes comes out for the fifth, but gives up a double and an infield single to put men on first and second with none out. He’s pulled from the game.

It was a good start. He missed a lot of edges, and because of that did not get some edge calls. The Cubs managed six hits seven though they struck out seven times. The one jam Skenes saw, he pitched out of well.

May 11, 2024

Letting Jeffers Hit

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Ryan Jeffers of the Twins leads the AL in slugging percentage at .609. In his first few seasons in the majors, Jeffers shared catching duties, but was seldom the main starter. Last season, his age 26 year, he greatly increased his OBP and BA, and that raised his slugging percentage to a respectable .491. This season, the Twins decided to keep Jeffers bat in the lineup by having him DH when he’s not catching, and playing nearly everyday improved everything, especially is power. He is among the AL leaders in doubles and extra-base hits, and owns eight home runs as well. It’s good Minnesota finally let this fine hitter play to his potential.

May 11, 2024

Games of the Day

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Justin Steele pitches in the Steel City as the Cubs face the Pirates, Paul Skenes making his major league debut. Steele allowed six hits and two walks in his first two starts covering 9 1/3 innings, leading to just one run. You can’t swing a dead cat without running into a story about Skenes potential greatness. At seasonal age 22, Skenes gets called up after 34 minor league innings in which he posted a 2.12 ERA. 27 1/3 of those innings coming at AAA. If we focus on AAA, he struck out 45 batters, walked eight, and allowed just one home run. Batters managed 17 hits against him.

A big caveat in my opinion is that Skenes was not allowed to go deep in games. He made seven starts at triple A, averaging not quite four inning per start. So he never got the chance to tire in a game. The Pirates addressed this in the ESPN article:

“We’d rather have the majority of the volume available to him be in the major leagues and not the minor leagues,” Cherington said. “Managing the volume progression early so it’s building more slowly than an established major league starter’s would, but in a way where we’re not using an unnecessary number of innings in the minor leagues.”

ESPN.com

This is the most anticipated debut since Stephen Strasburg made his first start against the Pirates 14 years ago.

Undefeated pitchers battle in Detroit as Cristian Javier of the Astros takes on Tarik Skubal of the Tigers. Javier stands 2-0 in four starts with a 1.54 ERA. His Ks are low and his walks high, but he avoided base hits with just 15 allowed in 23 1/3 innings. Skubal is also tough to hit, but blows away batters with few walks, helping him to a 1.90 ERA. Different methods, similar results.

The Royals battle in the heat of an excellent AL Central race as they send Cole Ragans against the Angels and Tyler Anderson. Ragans’ ERA improved just a little despite better rates in all three-true outcomes. That suggests a bit of bad luck, so look for his ERA to come down a bit if he can keep that up. Anderson is way at the opposite end of the spectrum, with an ERA two runs below his FIP.

Enjoy!

May 11, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

There are some hitters on this list one doesn’t normally see because they draw a decent number of walks. The Yankees are facing a pitching in Littell who doesn’t issue many walks, and the Dodgers are facing a pitcher in Waldron who owns relatively low K rate.

The NN provides this list of batters with a high probability of getting a hit:

  • 0.281, 0.730 — Luis Arraez batting against James Paxton.
  • 0.312, 0.712 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Matt Waldron.
  • 0.301, 0.702 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Waldron.
  • 0.288, 0.701 — Freddie Freeman batting against Matt Waldron.
  • 0.306, 0.698 — Adley Rutschman batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.280, 0.697 — William Contreras batting against Kyle Gibson.
  • 0.291, 0.693 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.263, 0.691 — Harold Ramirez batting against Nestor Cortes.
  • 0.272, 0.689 — Alec Bohm batting against Jesus Luzardo.
  • 0.299, 0.688 — Marcus Semien batting against Ryan Feltner.

The Dodgers big three do very well here, as does Arraez. You should be able to find a double down pair from the game at PETCO Park. Ohtani and Betts are the consensus 1-2 picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 11, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Juan Soto of the Yankees remains atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after an 0 for 4 in a 2-0 win over the Rays. His teammate, Aaron Judge, drew two walks in the game to rank third. Judge is 19 points behind Soto. The pair lead the AL in walks, Judge with 30 and Soto with 28.

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers sits between the Yankees, six points behind Soto. Ohtani singled and doubled in a 2-1 Padres win to close the gap. His teammate, Mookie Betts, drew a walk in four trips to rank fifth.

Bryce Harper of the Phillies went two for four with a double and a walk in an 8-2 win over the Marlins for fourth place. The Phillies generated 15 hits in the game.

Cody Bellinger of the Cubs posted the highest game score of Friday, an 80. He went four for five with two doubles and a home run as the Cubs beat the Pirates 7-2. He’s seven for thirteen since returning from the illjured list.

May 11, 2024

May 10, 2024

Burroughs Passes

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Former third baseman Sean Burroughs, star of little league, college and Major League Baseball, died this week:

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

To correct the tweet, Burroughs would be 44 in September. Yardbarker has more:

He was out of baseball entirely for several years after that and had since candidly spoken about a subsequent spiral of drug addiction and alcoholism. In a heart-wrenching interview with ESPN’s Jim Caple in 2011, Burroughs described the harrowing experience of spending years living in cheap Las Vegas motels, eating out of trash cans and abusing virtually any substance he could find. “I would just try to fill myself with as much substances as I could, legally or illegally,” he acknowledged.

Despite that low point – which Burroughs likened to the Nicolas Cage film “Leaving Las Vegas” – Burroughs’ baseball career had a second act. 

YardBarker.com

Burroughs never hit for much power, but early in his career did an excellent job of getting on base. His best season came in 2004 at age 23 when he slashed .298/.348/.365. He was two years away from his peak at that point, so without the substance abuse he might have turned into an outstanding player.

His father, MLB star Jeff Burroughs, is still with us and faces the heartbreaking task of burying a child.

May 10, 2024

Games of the Day

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The Cubs travel to Pittsburgh as Javier Assad takes on Jared Jones. Assad’s 1.66 ERA ranks third in the NL and second on the Cubs to the 1.08 mark of Shota Imanaga. Jones is off to a great start in his rookie season, with 52 strikeouts and just five walks in 41 innings.

Joe Ryan leads the hot Twins agains the Blue Jays and Yusei Kikuchi. Ryan pitched better than his 3.54 ERA, with 10.2 K per 9 IP and 1.3 BB per 9 IP. Three of the five home runs he allowed came with men on base. Kikuchi lowered his walk rate last year, and now with a lower home run rate to go with it brought his ERA under 3.00.

Andrew Abbott faces Logan Webb as the Reds play in San Francisco. Batters are finding it tougher to hit line drives against Abbott this season, leading to nearly a 50 point drop in his BABIP. Webb’s low K rate and high BABIP have not hurt him much this season as he greatly reduced his home runs allowed.

Enjoy!

May 10, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

The Red Sox get to face Corbin at Fenway Park. Wong hardly walks. He does strikeout a lot, but owns a .407 BABIP this season and a .350 BABIP for his career. This looks like a good matchup in a good park for hitters.

The NN produces these batters with a high probability of a hit:

  • 0.320, 0.719 — Alec Bohm batting against Trevor Rogers.
  • 0.304, 0.716 — Jose Altuve batting against Casey Mize.
  • 0.289, 0.711 — Harold Ramirez batting against Clarke Schmidt.
  • 0.246, 0.710 — Luis Arraez batting against Tyler Glasnow.
  • 0.332, 0.706 — Connor Wong batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.320, 0.703 — Jarren Duran batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.284, 0.698 — William Contreras batting against Lance Lynn.
  • 0.316, 0.698 — Rafael Devers batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.301, 0.694 — Adley Rutschman batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
  • 0.293, 0.692 — Jeremy Pena batting against Casey Mize.

Rogers saw his K rate drop and his opposition BABIP rise this season. Bohm ranks as one of the best hitters in the majors this season thanks to improved plate discipline.

Bohm ranks as the consensus top pick, with Wong the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 10, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Juan Soto of the Yankees remains at the top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after drawing two walks in a 4-3 Astros win. His teammate, Aaron Judge, homered in four trips to the plate for third place. The Dodgers and Phillies were idle on Thursday, so Shohei Ohtani holds second place, Mookie Betts remains fourth, and Bryce Harper sits in fifth place.

The best game score of the day belonged to Dairon Blanco of the Royals, a 79. The outfielder collected three hits and a walk, including a double and his first home run of the season. The Cuban came to the majors in his late 20s, and performed solidly with a .267/.333/.453 career slash line.

May 10, 2024

May 9, 2024

Reading the Defense

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Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune discusses the hitting talents of Luis Arraez. I was impressed to learn this:

“I watch the positioning when I go hit,” he said. “I look at third, short, second, the outfielders. If I see a hole, I want to hit the ball to the hole. Sometimes I hit, sometimes I don’t because I’m not perfect. But I just want to hit the hole every time.”

SanDiegoUnionTribune.com

That is a very Ty Cobb approach to the game. In the book Ty and the Babe, Cobb initially didn’t think much of Ruth as a hitter because Ruth didn’t study the field and try to find holes. Ruth just hit the ball hard. Cobb looked for holes, and his split hand grip allowed him the bat control to do just that.

May 9, 2024

Game of the Day

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Ronel Blanco of the Astros takes on Marcus Stroman of the Yankees in a late afternoon game in The Bronx. Blanco owns a 2.09 ERA in six starts, holding the opposition to just 21 hits in 38 2/3 innings. Six of the nine runs he allowed came off the four home runs batters hit against him. Stroman continues to be great with runners in scoring position, allowing a .143 BA in the situation this season. That makes his ERA reasonable despite an overall .342 OBP allowed.

Enjoy!

May 9, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Rengifo missed the last few games with an illness, so be sure the check the starting lineup for the Angels. He started 2024 well above his norms, reducing his walk and strikeout rates while smashing the ball to the tune of a .378 BABIP.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of a hit:

  • 0.274, 0.700 — Jose Altuve batting against Marcus Stroman.
  • 0.267, 0.679 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Reid Detmers.
  • 0.287, 0.679 — Luis Rengifo batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.251, 0.670 — William Contreras batting against Sonny Gray.
  • 0.260, 0.669 — Jeremy Pena batting against Marcus Stroman.
  • 0.260, 0.666 — Salvador Perez batting against Reid Detmers.
  • 0.273, 0.655 — Taylor Ward batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.243, 0.655 — Josh Naylor batting against Erick Fedde.
  • 0.246, 0.654 — Julio Rodriguez batting against Pablo Lopez.
  • 0.248, 0.652 — Nolan Arenado batting against Tobias Myers.
  • 0.250, 0.652 — Josh Rojas batting against Pablo Lopez.

Altuve is five for 15 with no walks and four strikeouts career against Stroman. He is the consensus top pick, with Rengifo second. With a limited schedule today, there are few high probability picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 9, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Wednesday’s games shake up the order of the top five in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings a bit. Juan Soto of the Yankees remains on top after a three for five with a home run in a 9-4 win over the Astros. His OBP stands at .437. Soto’s teammate, Aaron Judge, also went three for five in the game with two doubles and a home run to move up to third place. They posted the third and sixth highest games scores of the day, Judge with a 74 and and Soto with a 73.

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers remains in second place after an 0 for 4 in a 3-1 win over the Marlins. His teammate, Mookie Betts, now stands fourth as he singled in four trips to the plate in that game.

Bryce Harper of the Phillies rounds out the top five. He also went 0 for 4 and the Blue Jays took the game 5-3.

Shea Langeliers of the Athletics missed the cycle by a single as he goes three for four with five RBI for a game score of 80 in game one of the double header against the Rangers. Oakland won 9-4 as they split the day with Texas. Langeliers had a great day overall, five for nine, adding another home run in the nightcap. He and his teammate, Brent Rooker, are tied for fourth in the AL with nine home runs each, part of the reason Oakland is playing above expectations so far this season. The Oakland catcher is all power, with a .209 BA and a .513 slugging percentage as 15 of his 24 hits went for extra bases.

May 9, 2024

May 8, 2024

May 8, 2024

May 8, 2024

Games of the Day

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The Padres battle the Cubs in Chicago with Dylan Cease and Hayden Wesneski on the mound. Cease owns a 2.55 ERA with only two home runs allowed in 42 1/3 innings. That raised him to tenth place in the Bill James Starting Pitcher Rankings. After giving up 20 home runs in 89 1/3 innings in 2023, Wesneski kept the ball in the park for his first 16 2/3 innings of 2024.

The Orioles and Nationals offer another compelling pitching matchup as Kyle Bradish faces Mitchell Parker. The Nationals moved one game over .500 with the win on Tuesday, and are tied for the third Wild Card slot in the NL. Bradish makes his second start since returning from a UCL sprain. He allowed one run in 4 1/3 innings in his debut, following on nicely from his 2023 season. The rookie Parker keeps hits to singles as the opposition slugs just .275 against him.

Finally, the Red Sox send Nick Pivetta against a pitcher they let go, Chris Sale. Pivetta pitched just eleven innings in 2024, but they were high quality as he allowed just eight hits and one run, walking one and striking out 13. Sale seems healthy again, 4-1 in six starts with a 3.44 ERA. Most telling, he struck out 42 batters in 36 2/3 innings

Enjoy!

May 8, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Note that Rengifo is ill, but active. Bohm received a day off on Tuesday after his hit streak ended on Monday.

Note that the Rangers and Athletics play a doubleheader today, so be careful picking from those games.

The NN produced this list of players with a high probability of a hit:

  • 0.269, 0.722 — Luis Arraez batting against Hayden Wesneski.
  • 0.292, 0.714 — Harold Ramirez batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.291, 0.705 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Ryan Weathers.
  • 0.302, 0.704 — Alec Bohm batting against Chris Bassitt.
  • 0.288, 0.699 — Amed Rosario batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.274, 0.698 — Jose Altuve batting against Carlos Rodon.
  • 0.281, 0.693 — Mookie Betts batting against Ryan Weathers.
  • 0.286, 0.688 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Joe Ross.
  • 0.266, 0.688 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ryan Weathers.
  • 0.253, 0.682 — William Contreras batting against Brady Singer.

We’re starting to see more batters with probabilities over .700 as the 2024 season gets regressed less to the .213 MLB hit average (hits/PA). Arraez did not start on Tuesday, but did get a hit in a pinch.

As the two systems continue to disagree on Arraez, Ramirez stands as the consensus top pick, with Bohm the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 8, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Juan Soto of the Yankees retakes the top slot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a three for four in a 10-3 rout of the Astros. His teammate, Aaron Judge, singled and walked twice to rank fifth.

Dodgers Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts rank second and fourth respectively. Ohtani walked twice in an 8-2 win over the Marlins, while Betts posted an 0 for 3.

Bryce Harper of the Phillies finds himself sandwiched between the big city pairs after a perfect night at the plate. He went three for three with a walk and a home run in a 10-1 win against the Blue Jays. New York and Philadelphia were two of fives teams to score at least ten runs on Tuesday. After a slow start, Harper hit .333/.481/.667 from 4/15 to 5/7. His game score of 79 on Tuesday proved the fourth best of the night.

Andy Ibanez of the Tigers won the highest game score of Tuesday, a 93. He went four for four from the lead-off slot with a walk, a double, and two home runs as Detroit beat Cleveland 11-7. Those were his first three extra-base hits of the season, although he did spend a lot of time on the illjured list.

The game score of 93 ties him with Max Muncy of the Dodgers for highest game score of the season. They come three days apart.

May 8, 2024

May 7, 2024

Your Best Pitch

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David Schoenfield at ESPN.com takes a long look at the new Red Sox pitching philosophy. They seem to be de-emphasizing the fastball, but it’s really about throwing the best pitch:

The Red Sox are throwing the fewest fastballs of any team in MLB in 2024. Just 31.8% of their pitches have been fastballs (either four-seamers or sinkers), well below the MLB average of 47%. Just one other team is under 40%, and no team was below that last season.

“I know a lot has been made of this,” Breslow said, “but if you were to take a step back and say, ‘OK, we can rank all of your pitches and what we’re asking you to do is take your best pitch and throw it more and take your worst pitches and throw them less,’ I don’t think anyone would be like, ‘You’ve reinvented the game.’

“I think what we have done is refuse to be beholden to traditional baseball thought, which says you have to be able to throw a fastball down and away. I would argue you have to be able to throw a pitch over the plate. I have no idea why that has to be a fastball.”

ESPN.com

I also like that that see this in terms of economics:

“I think every pitch we make is a business decision,” Bailey said. “These guys are competing to provide income and to obviously play a game at the end of the day, but this is their livelihood, and if they do well, the Red Sox do well, and we win and get to the playoffs. So every pitch we throw is a business decision to make a bet to suppress damage or induce swing-and-miss.”

The Red Sox starters came into the day with the third highest average game score in the majors. Note that compared to the teams around them, their positives are low. They are great at avoiding the negative outcomes of hits and walks, which lead to fewer runs. Instead of accentuating the positives, the Red Sox are thriving by eliminating the negative.*

*Bing did own a piece of a baseball team.