Jeff Bailey played first base for the Boston Red Sox until an injury put him on the disabled list on July 5th. He did not return to the major league club. Jeff played 2009 as a 30-year-old, and with only 56 MLB games under his belt, it’s unlikely he’ll get many more chances to prove himself a major leaguer. He does have a good eye for the strike zone, walking 19 times in 136 at bats. That helped turn a poor .228 BA into an okay .340 OBP. With an isolated power of .206, he also tended to get a high percentage of extra base hits.
Unfortunately, those numbers just aren’t good enough for an offensive position like first base. Bailey strikes out a ton, and when a hitter does that he needs to make up for it with lots of walks and lots of power, and Bailey just doesn’t do those enough. He’s okay as an injury fill in. He doesn’t make a ton of outs, but he doesn’t add all that much to the offense. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was out of the game soon.
On the other hand, remember last season when the GM of the Royals, Dayton Moore said he wanted to improve the team’s OBP, then went out and traded for Mike Jacobs? Imagine if he had traded for Jeff Bailey, and he managed to post a .340 OBP? He would have been cheap (Jacobs cost $3.25 million), as he earned near the league minimum. In general, if you have a problem at first base, someone somewhere has a cheap solution in their minor league system. Moore wanted to fix the OBP problem, and Bailey could have helped without costing the Royals an arm and a leg.
Posted by David Pinto at 8:36 pm | Players, Players A to Z | Permalink | No Comments
November 22, 2009
Players A to Z, Homer Bailey
Homer Bailey pitches as a starter for the Cincinnati Reds. He just finished his third season with experience in the majors at the age of 23. So far, however, his major league performance failed to live up to the hype surrounding him. He currently owns a 12-13 career record with a 5.45 ERA.
The main problem for Bailey lies in his walks and strikeouts. For most of his career, those two statistics were even, with his walks high and his strikeouts low. Hope for Reds fans came at the end of the season in 2009. Over his last nine starts, Bailey upped his strikeouts, lowered his walks, and posted a 1.70 ERA. To be fair, four of those game came against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Maybe that was a good decision by Dusty Baker, to improve Bailey’s confidence. On the flip side, he pitched short shutouts against the Dodgers and Marlins, and help the Cardinals to one run over seven innings, walking one and striking out seven.
That streak came after he talked to a college coach about his mechanics. His success comes in a very small sample of game. We know that Bailey fixed something in his delivery, however, so Reds fans have reason to be optimistic about 2010.
Posted by David Pinto at 5:45 pm | Pitchers, Players A to Z | Permalink | No Comments
November 22, 2009
Stenson Award Winner
Russ Mitchell, a minor league player in the Dodgers organization, won the Dernell Stenson award in the Arizona Fall League:
Javelinas infielder Russ Mitchell (Dodgers) was presented with the AFL’s Dernell Stenson Sportsmanship Award prior to the championship game. The award, named in memory of the former AFL player who was murdered in 2003 while a member of the Scottsdale Scorpions, has been given annually since 2004 to the league’s player who best exemplifies unselfishness, hard work and leadership. Mitchell hit .319/.396/.606, with five home runs for the Javelinas. He hit the first professional home run yielded by Strasburg on Oct. 22.
Mitchell isn’t much of a prospect, having played in the Dodgers system for seven seasons and never making it past AA. With a career minor league OBP of .313, he would need to be a superb fielder to make it in the majors.
Posted by David Pinto at 3:56 pm | Awards | Permalink | No Comments
November 22, 2009
Players A to Z, Andrew Bailey
Andrew Bailey. Photo: Icon SMI
Andrew Bailey pitches in relief for the Oakland Athletics as their closer. He won the 2009 AL Rookie of the Year award.
Bailey did everything right as a pitcher in 2009. He struck out 91 in 83 1/3 innings of work, a rate of 9.8 K per nine innings. He walked less batters at a rate of 2.6 per nine innings, and allowed home runs at the extremely low rate of 12 per 200 innings.
On top of that, he was tough to hit, allowing just a .167 BA. Part of that is his high strikeout rate, but part of that is also a very low BABIP, .234. If you look at his minor league numbers, his BABIPs are more in line with what one might expect from a good pitcher. In other words, don’t expect him to be this good in 2010.
That’s not a knock on Bailey. If he maintains his strikeout, walk and home run numbers he’ll continue to be a very good pitcher, he’s just likely to allow a few more hits.
Posted by David Pinto at 3:09 pm | Pitchers, Players A to Z | Permalink | No Comments
November 22, 2009
Changing Agents
Aroldis Chapman left the agent that helped him become a free agent after defecting from Cuba. I feel bad for the agent who got nothing from helping Chapman, but this seems to be pretty standard practice in baseball. Jerry Crasnick’s book, License to Deal: A Season on the Run with a Maverick Baseball Agent
Posted by David Pinto at 10:45 am | Agents | Permalink | No Comments
November 22, 2009
Citi Field Becomes More Mets-Centric
The Mets will make changes to Citi Field so there’s more Mets history than Dodgers history in the park:
The right-center field bridge will be named “Shea Bridge” after William A. Shea, for whom the team’s former stadium is named and the man who helped bring National League baseball back to New York. Other areas of the stadium will be named after Casey Stengel, Gil Hodges and Tom Seaver. Citi Field already has an Ebbets Club, the Jackie Robinson Rotunda and a facade based on the Dodgers’ old Brooklyn home.
The Mets also confirmed plans for a revitalized Mets Hall of Fame and Museum adjacent to the Rotunda, which will be accessible from inside or outside the ballpark. The Hall was located outside the Diamond Club at Shea but was not a part of the new ballpark in 2009.
What about the Cone/Strawberry/Gooden relaxation lounge? 
Posted by David Pinto at 10:26 am | Stadiums | Permalink | 2 Comments
November 22, 2009
Harvard-Yale
One of the problems with playing in the band at THE GAME is the difficulty in keeping track of what’s happening on the field. I missed the fake punt. All I knew was Harvard had the ball in pretty good field position with little time left on the clock. I have to agree with Dagger here, worst decision ever.
Harvard played poorly for 7/8 of the game. They blew opportunity after opportunity both on offense and defense. The Harvard kicker was so poor Harvard would not even try a 38 yard field goal on a day with no wind. Yale didn’t play any better, leading 10-0 for most of the game. Maybe the Yale coach they could stop Harvard anywhere on the field, and given the events of the day he might have been right.
The Harvard receivers did beat the Yale secondary all day, they just didn’t catch the ball much. This time, however, the pass and catch was perfect and Harvard took the game.
I kept thinking back to Harvard-Penn, 1982, where Harvard came back from a 20-0 deficit with 10 minutes left to take a 21-20 lead, only to lose the game on a roughing the kicker penalty at the buzzer. When Harvard scored to take a 14-10 lead, I looked at Tom Everett, the director of the band for the last 40 years and said, “Remember Penn ‘82?” There was about the same amount of time left on the clock that Penn used in their drive. That part of the story didn’t repeat, however.
Posted by David Pinto at 10:19 am | Other | Permalink | 1 Comment
November 22, 2009
Halladay and the Blue Jays
The headline at ESPN.com says Roy Halladay won’t re-sign with Toronto when his contract is up, but Paul Beeston is not quite so final:
“We would like to sign him, he is an original Blue Jay and we have never had a pitcher as good as him,” Beeston told the Post. “But he is not inclined to sign with us.
I suspect at the moment that Halladay wants to win a championship, and doesn’t think the Blue Jays will get there in his career. One thing that could change his mind, I would guess, is for Toronto to develop a winner next season. I’m not sure how unlikely that is. They suffered some pitching setbacks in 2009, but if they can get the 2008 staff back, they’d be one of the best in the AL. If Vernon Wells can become an offensive force once surgery fixes his wrist, and they don’t lose anything from their other power positions, there’s a chance they do what the Rays did in 2008. That might change Halladay’s mind.
Posted by David Pinto at 9:33 am | Management, Pitchers | Permalink | 1 Comment
November 21, 2009
Extending Johnson
Tony Dagger is disappointed that the Marlins won’t sign Josh Johnson to more than a three year contract:
As much as I love baseball, this is the problem that keeps gnawing at me. If the Marlins can’t (or won’t) sign a guy like this long-term, what’s the point of rooting for them? Way too many teams have this same problem, and it really takes away from the sport.
I don’t know if I agree here. Johnson has an injury history, and I’m not sure that any pitcher is worth more than the three-year risk, at least not at this point. If he signs and pitches well, there’s no reason the Marlins can’t extend him in a couple of years. I can’t blame the Marlins for being cautious with a pitcher.
Posted by David Pinto at 10:32 pm | Pitchers | Permalink | 2 Comments
November 21, 2009
The Game
I’m marching with the band at the Harvard Yale game.
Posted by David Pinto at 10:27 am | Other | Permalink | 3 Comments
November 20, 2009
Players A to Z, Danys Baez
Danys Baez pitched in relief for the Baltimore Orioles in 2009 and is currently a free agent. He returned to the majors in 2009 after missing all of 2008 due to elbow surgery at the end of spring training. His 2009 ERA was pretty much in line with his career average (4.04 career, 4.02 in 2009) although he reached that number differently. Before the surgery, be both walked and struck out more batters. Through 2007 he struck out 7.0 batters be nine innings and walked 3.8. In 2009 his strikeouts fell, but he brought his walks down to compensate (5.0 K per 9, 2.8 BB per nine).
While I like the lower walk rate, my guess is that we’ll see a somewhat worse season from Baez in 2010. Despite the low K rate, he allowed just a .222 opposition batting average, one of the lowest of his career. His BABIP was .239, against a career average of .280. I’m guessing more balls find holes in 2010, so free agent suitors should be wary of spending too much money on him unless they have an outstanding defensive team.
7.0/3.8/0.86 2009: 5.0/2.8/1.00
Posted by David Pinto at 5:39 pm | Pitchers, Players A to Z | Permalink | No Comments
November 20, 2009
Giving the Devil his Due
Vince Naimoli wrote a book about his life and his time owning the Devil Rays. He tries to throw a better light on himself.
Naimoli also has some harsh words for his former investment partners, saying he had to spend $30 million of his own money to keep the team from bankruptcy. That was because his partners (that included Outback co-founders Chris Sullivan and Bob Basham, and Sarasota businessman Bill Griffin) “reneged on their promise” to cover the payroll increase for the ill-fated 2000 “Hit Show” addition of high-priced sluggers Vinny Castilla and Greg Vaughn. Worse, Naimoli wrote, he knew it was a bad idea at the time, saying he had a “premonition of disaster” and felt “scalded” by how it turned out.
“So I anted up the money, about $30 million, to save the team,” he wrote. “I didn’t go public with that tidbit (it was a private matter). If I had, it might have changed some perceptions about me. But if I hadn’t put in the money, the team would have gone bankrupt.”
The team is better now, and so far the new group has increased attendance, which should give them some room to grow payroll eventually. They ranked 29th in 2007 at 17,100, 26th in 2008 at 22,300, and 23rd in 2009 at 23,100. They didn’t get the big boost winning a pennant usually brings, likely due to the down turn in the economy, and the team not being as competitive as the year before. They still have a good core, however, so if they can bounce back in 2010, they should keep those numbers going up. As Naimoli still has equity in the team, he should reap the rewards of the better management.
Posted by David Pinto at 11:34 am | Books, Owners | Permalink | No Comments
November 20, 2009
Free Agent Team
Peter Abraham is holding a contest for fun where you create a team from the free agent class. The only thing I’d like to see Peter add is how much you would pay each player (money is no object in the contest, however). Entries are due Sunday night.
Looking at Peter’s team, I would take Matsui as DH instead of Damon, although Damon gives them more flexibility. I’d also bat Nick Johnson higher in the lineup.
Posted by David Pinto at 11:05 am | Free Agents | Permalink | No Comments
November 20, 2009
Knee to Know
Stephen Strasburg hurt his knee. It’s either not serious or someone heard an “ugly pop.” He’s going to see Lewis Yocum, however, so how bad can it be?
Posted by David Pinto at 12:02 am | Injuries | Permalink | No Comments
November 19, 2009
Players A to Z, Burke Badenhop
Burke Badenhop pitches in relief for the Florida Marlins, and owns one of my favorite names in the sport for two reasons:
- You can’t spell Badenhop without, “Bad hop.”
- It reminds me of Boris Badenov.
In 2009, Burke improved on his rookie season, pitching 25 more innings, walking just three more batters and giving up two fewer home runs. Badenhop posted outstanding walk numbers in the minor leagues, and if he can continue to work back to those low levels he should be a successful major league pitcher.
Posted by David Pinto at 6:59 pm | Pitchers, Players A to Z | Permalink | 2 Comments
November 19, 2009
Ballot Bawling
It turns out that the two internet voters, Keith Law and Will Carroll, left Chris Carpenter off their ballots. Some people are not happy about that, according to ShysterBall.
I actually think the problem is that with only three slots, it’s tough to give recognition to a pitcher who was very good, but doesn’t deserve the award. When the IBWAA asked for comments on balloting, I suggest five names for Cy Young, just so there was room to include an unusual pick. That allowed me to put Ubaldo Jimenez third, under the assumption that any pitcher for the Rockies who turns in a sub-4.00 ERA should be a Cy Young candidate. I was also able to vote Vazquez ahead of Wainwright. I don’t see how it would hurt the BBWAA to go to five places on their Cy Young ballots, and give recognition to a few other hurlers who pitched well.
Update: Fixed the link.
Posted by David Pinto at 6:37 pm | Awards | Permalink | 1 Comment
November 19, 2009
Heilman to the Diamonbacks
The Cubs traded Aaron Heilman to the Arizona Diamondbacks rather than release the player.
In return, the Cubs received left-handed reliever Scott Maine, who went 4-5 with seven saves and a 2.90 ERA at Double-A Mobile and Triple-A Reno, and first baseman Ryne White, who hit .266 with six homers and 52 RBI at Class-A Visalia.
White hasn’t shown much power in the low minors coming out of college, but Maine might be useful. He strikes out a lot of batters and doesn’t give up many home runs, but his walk totals are high. Heilman’s walk totals spiked up the last two years, leading to a poor ERA both seasons.
Posted by David Pinto at 6:21 pm | Trades | Permalink | No Comments
November 19, 2009
Lincecum’s Statement
At the end of his Cy Young interview, Tim Lincecum read a statement about his marijuana arrest:
In part:
“I made a mistake and I regret my actions. I want to apologize to the Giants organization and the fans. I know as a professional athlete I have a responsibility … both on and off the field. I promise to do better in the future.” He added that because the case is pending, he could say no more on the topic.
It certainly didn’t seem to harm his pitching.
Posted by David Pinto at 6:16 pm | Pitchers | Permalink | 1 Comment
November 19, 2009
Lincecum Repeats
Tim Lincecum wins the NL Cy Young Award for the second year in a row.
Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants was elected the National League Cy Young Award winner for the second consecutive year in balloting by the BBWAA. Lincecum had the lowest victory total over a full season of any starting pitcher who won the award in either league.
The previous low victory total for a Cy Young Award-winning starter in a season not affected by a strike was by Brandon Webb, who was 16-8 for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2006. It was matched Tuesday by 2009 American League winner Zack Greinke, who was 16-8 for the Kansas City Royals.
It’s a fascinating vote. BBWAA members gave Adam Wainwright the most first place votes with twelve, but they either thought he was first or third, with only five writers voting him in second. He finished third. Most voters who cast a ballot for either Tim or Chris Carpenter thought they were either number one or number two, and that’s how they finished. It’s pretty clear there were voters who valued wins, and put Wainwright first, and those who didn’t put him third. Lincecum received 11 first place votes to Carpenter’s nine, and walked away with the award.
This is the advantage of a Borda count, a disagreement like this results in the consensus second choice winning. Credit this to the voting system, and enough writers understanding the value of ERA and strikeouts.
Update: On the point system, only 10 points separated first from third. It’s pretty clear there was no clear consensus among the voters on who should be Cy Young this season, but I think they got the ranking right. There was no love for Ubaldo Jimnenez, however, as Haren and Vazquez received the only votes not going to one of the top three.
Posted by David Pinto at 3:07 pm | Awards, Pitchers | Permalink | 3 Comments
November 19, 2009
Grabow’s Contract
Dave Cameron is unimpressed with the contract John Grabow signed with the Cubs:
Grabow is a generic left-handed middle reliever, the kind of guy you’re fine having for the league minimum but that you don’t really want to pay any real money to. He’s eminently replaceable, but the Cubs have decided to commit real money to him over multiple years because he has a low ERA.
The Cubs have money, and $3.75 million isn’t going to drastically alter their budget, but this is just a waste of cash. Betting on reliever ERA is a great way to get burned, and given Grabow’s actual talent levels, the Cubs are unlikely to be very happy with how this deal turns out for them.
What’s impressive is that if you break Grabow into his high ERA period (through 2007) and low ERA period (since), he’s striking out fewer and walking more in the low period. That’s just not a good sign for the future.
Posted by David Pinto at 1:49 pm | Pitchers, Transactions | Permalink | No Comments
November 19, 2009
NL Cy Day
The BBWAA announces their NL Cy Young Award choice at 2 PM EST this afternoon. My picks were Tim Lincecum, Chris Carpenter, Ubaldo Jimenez, Javier Vazquez and Adam Wainwright, in that order. The IBWAA award went to Chris Carpenter. Carpenter finished with the best ERA in the National League, so he’s a good choice. I like Lincecum better due to more innings pitched, and a much higher strikeout rate. Carpenter walked fewer and gave up fewer home runs, but the latter rates were very close.
One big strike against Tim is his record, 15-7. The AL voters ignored Greinke’s record, and I wonder if they’ll do the same with Tim. Of course, if they do consider record, Adam Wainwright will win going away.
Posted by David Pinto at 1:24 pm | Awards | Permalink | No Comments
November 19, 2009
The Worst Managers
Joe Posnanski awards the McCloskey’s for the worst manager in each league. Trey Hillman gets it in the AL, with Joe debating the merits of Dave Trembley. I can see the reasons behind both, but what about Eric Wedge? Maybe he should get a lifetime achievement award for showing so much promise and returning so little success.
Posted by David Pinto at 12:55 pm | Management | Permalink | 2 Comments
November 19, 2009
Strike Talk
Ken Rosenthal fires the first salvo in 2011 work stoppage reporting, using an argument between Scott Boras and Bob Manfred as an ominous sign that relations between owners and players are headed to an impasse. At issue is how much money teams receive from the central fund and how much of that they are spending on players. I do agree with Boras here:
Boras said there is a way to settle the discrepancy — by requiring clubs in the next collective-bargaining agreement to disclose the amount of money they receive from the central fund and from revenue sharing.
The players could ask for such a stipulation because they agree to revenue sharing as part of the CBA. The central fund also is linked to the revenue-sharing plan.
“Fans have a right to know what money their team is given,” Boras said. “If clubs don’t want to disclose it, then don’t accept the subsidy. If they do want to accept it, disclose it. Their choice.”
The players’ union is informed of the amounts each team receives, a major-league official said.
Collusion also comes up, but I don’t think collusion is at the same level as it was in the mid 1980s. At that time, teams agreed not to hire free agents from other teams. Owners at that time were still mad they lost the reserve clause, and were trying to bring it back by refusing to allow players to move off their old teams. That isn’t going on now. What the union believes is going on now is price fixing, where teams all offer players the same money. In other words, teams are exchanging information, or working off the same formulas. It’s going to be tough to prove, however, when a few players keep getting big contracts. Whatever the owners are doing, they’re much smarter about it than they were in the 1980s.
The one thing that makes me worry there will be a work stoppage is that the union has a new leader, and he may want to show he’s a tough guy. However, as far as the players are concerned, the hot button issues of free agency and arbitration appear to be settled. MLB as a whole is making plenty of money. I have a hard time imagining any issue big enough that they can’t settle it.
So get ready to hear lots of stories in the media about strikes, but also get ready for the negotiations to go down to whatever deadline the parties set. There’s no reason for either side to settle any sooner.
Posted by David Pinto at 9:34 am | Owners, Union | Permalink | 3 Comments
November 19, 2009
Manager of the Next Three Years
Wednesday was a good day for Jim Tracy as he won the NL Manager of the Year and received a three-year contract from the Rockies.
Is this a good contract? Tracy basically won with the Dodgers, and lost with the Pirates. If you give him a good team, he can win, give him a poor team, and he’ll lose. It’s also quite possible that Jim learned a few things in all his years managing, at both ends of the spectrum.
Jim might be a new Joe Torre. Joe managed a long time before taking over the Yankees, and apart from one good year in Atlanta, didn’t win all that much. I don’t think people thought of him as a great manager when he came to the Yankees. He wasn’t Billy Martin, who can push a team into winning. He wasn’t Davey Johnson who worked to find the best statistical situations for his players to excel. Torre gets what you expect from his team, and earns the respect of his players. A good team will play well for Torre, a great team will win for him.
I’m starting to think that where Jim Tracy is. Don’t expect him to coax an extra three wins out of a bad team. Give him a good team, however, and he won’t screw it up.
Posted by David Pinto at 9:09 am | Management | Permalink | No Comments
November 18, 2009
Bucky Williams Passes
Negro League player Bucky Williams died at 102:
Williams was born on Dec. 15, 1906, in Baltimore, and his family moved to Pittsburgh when he was a baby.
He began playing for the Pittsburgh Crawfords in 1928, played briefly with their rival Homestead Grays in 1936, then returned to the Crawfords until they folded in 1939.
After leaving the Negro leagues, Williams continued to play for sandlot and other adult teams, including the Pittsburgh Monarchs and a team sponsored by the Edgar Thompson Steel Works, where he worked as a ladle liner before retiring in 1971.
He would have been a teammate of Josh Gibson. I wonder if he was the oldest living professional ballplayer?
My thoughts go out to his family and friends.
Posted by David Pinto at 11:18 pm | Deaths | Permalink | No Comments
November 18, 2009
Rescheduling the Playoffs
Bud Selig says he’ll look at tightening up the playoff schedule, something Mike Scioscia complained about this year. My solution is here.
Posted by David Pinto at 9:43 pm | Post Season | Permalink | No Comments
November 18, 2009
Players A to Z, Willy Aybar
Willy Aybar is a utility infielder for the Tampa Bay Rays. He plays second, third and first, filling in for both Akinori Iwamura and Carlos Pena when they suffered injuries. Aybar’s career got off to a good start, posting a .387 OBP over his first two seasons. Unfortunately, drug problems meant he didn’t play in the majors in 2007. He came back to play with the Rays, but he lost something of his batting eye, with a 40 point drop in his batting average and a 60 point drop in his OBP.
Still, Aybar remains a valuable player, as he can play a number of positions and fill in adequately. If he ever gets his batting eye back, he could make a decent starter for a team. He’ll be 27 in 2010, so there is still some hope for getting some of that early magic back.
Posted by David Pinto at 8:51 pm | Players, Players A to Z | Permalink | No Comments
November 18, 2009
My Favorite Manager
The Washington Nationals hired Davey Johnson as an advisor to Mike Rizzo. Johnson is the one person I’d love to still see managing. BBTF’s take:
~squeeble-squeeble~~Riggleroom just got a little tighter~~squeeble-squeeble~
Johnson made it pretty clear in the past that he didn’t want the headache of managing in the majors again. He did manage the WBC team, however, and if you give Davey a young team with some talent, like the 1984 Mets, he can take that team a long way.
Posted by David Pinto at 8:01 pm | Management | Permalink | No Comments
November 18, 2009
Stenson Award Nominees
The Arizona Fall League announced the finalists for the Dernell Stenson Sportsmanship Award.
Posted by David Pinto at 6:15 pm | Awards | Permalink | No Comments
November 18, 2009
Players A to Z, Erick Aybar
Erick Aybar plays shortstop for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. At age 25, 2009 represented his first season as a full time player, and Erick responded marvelously. He hit over .300 with a .353 OBP and a .423 slugging percentage. Aybar brought his OBP up every year since since cup of coffee in 2006, by about 30 points a year. He’s not a power hitter, but he is fast as he knocked out 16 triples and just nine home runs for his career.
Aybar’s offensive value should like in his ability to get on base. Right now, that comes from generating hits more than walks. I like to see players generate at least 10 walks per 100 at bats and Aybar generates six. That means his OBP is very much tied to his batting average, so a plunge in the latter may mean a plunge in the former.
Fangraphs rates Erick as a good fielder, third in the AL in Fielding Runs. Based on his 2009 season, Aybar is looking like a star. If he repeats or improves on the past year, he’ll be looking at very big money when he becomes a free agent in three years. I suspect he’ll get a nice arbitration boost this season.
Posted by David Pinto at 5:45 pm | Players, Players A to Z | Permalink | No Comments
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