The Cleveland Indians are looking for people with computer and statistical skills for their baseball analytics department.
This individual must possess expert knowledge of modern statistical analysis and/or machine learning techniques.
Seems they are/would like to use machine learning techniques to predict future performance.
Posted by David Pinto at 7:42 pm | Management | Permalink | 2 Comments
February 9, 2010
Players A to Z, Edwin Encarnacion
Edwin Encarnacion plays third base for the Toronto Blue Jays. The long time Reds hitter went north in the trade for Scott Rolen. Edwin’s batting stats don’t stand out as great, but they’re certainly not bad. The average American League hitter in 2009 posted a slash line of .267/.336/.428. Encarnacion’s career line comes in at .260/.341/.448. So he’s above average in both OBP and slugging percentage. If your entire team produced those numbers, they’d likely be above average in runs scored.
Unfortunately, Edwin gives a lot of those runs created back on defense. That may hurt Toronto as they try to develop a young pitching staff.
Encarnacion also is coming off a poor offensive season. At seasonal age 27, I would expect him to bounce back from that. He needs to have a very good season with the bat to make up for his glove, otherwise he may not last too long in the majors.
Posted by David Pinto at 6:15 pm | Players, Players A to Z | Permalink | No Comments
February 9, 2010
Webb Slinger
Brandon Webb threw off a mound today:
Arizona Diamondbacks ace Brandon Webb threw off the mound on Tuesday for the first time since undergoing right shoulder surgery.
Webb said he was pleased with how he felt after throwing between 20 and 25 pitches in the Chase Field bullpen.
“[It] went good,” Webb said, according to MLB.com. “[The] ball came out well, but I was just thinking about arm slot on every throw. That’s to be expected, not having thrown on the mound in so long.”
Webb’s manager, A.J. Hinch, was also pleased with the session, according to the Arizona Republic.
“It was a good session, a good positive step forward. I am happy about it,” he said, according to the report.
A healthy Webb would give Arizona an enviable rotation. Any positive steps in that direction is good news for the Diamondbacks.
Posted by David Pinto at 5:51 pm | Pitchers | Permalink | No Comments
February 9, 2010
Texas Talk
Via Lone Star Ball, the lines of communication between Nolan Ryan and Jon Daniels opened up, and the two are getting along very well.
But in October, following the 2009 season and with Hicks clearly on his way out as Rangers owner and a sale to the Chuck Greenberg-Ryan group imminent, Hicks called Daniels and Ryan in and changed the dynamic. Instead of reporting to Hicks, Daniels would now report to Ryan.
Better late than never.
Suddenly, lines of communication were open and clear. The chain of command was finally the way it should have been all along. Now, instead of wondering what the other might be doing, Ryan and Daniels could perform as one smooth, well-oiled machine, having discussed and decided together on the same strategic plans and goals.
The result was a remarkable offseason in which Daniels filled Ron Washington’s wish list like Santa Claus filling a kid’s stocking on Christmas Eve.
I’ve never quite understood this separation of power in a baseball organization, especially when two parties are on the operations side. If I were Hicks, I would want both there for every high level meeting. This was a good example of poor micro-management.
Posted by David Pinto at 12:43 pm | Management | Permalink | 2 Comments
February 9, 2010
Heart to Hart
It looks like Corey Hart will be the first player that actually takes the Brewers to arbitration under Doug Melvin:
At this point, there appears no chance that a deal will be struck before a hearing, which would be the first for the Doug Melvin regime. After Hart’s agent, Jeff Barry, turned down the club’s last offer on Friday, Jan. 29, negotiations ceased.
“We’ve had enough time to get a deal done,’ said general manager Doug Melvin. “Right now, it looks like we’ve got the first case (to be heard).”
Hart, who made $3.25 million last year, filed a request for a $4.8 million salary. The Brewers offered $4.15 million, resulting in a gap of $650,000. The midpoint of the figures is $4.475 million, but the Brewers thought Hart’s figure was too high and didn’t offer a midpoint settlement.
Hart will play 2010 as a 28-year-old, when he should be in his prime. After a break-out 2007 season, he declined rapidly instead of holding that level through his prime. Hart, in my opinion, has a very good chance of losing this case and probably should have accepted the Brewers proposal, even if it was below the midpoint. His 2007 season appears to have been Corey’s “Sunglasses at Night”.
Posted by David Pinto at 12:30 pm | Management, Players | Permalink | 2 Comments
February 9, 2010
The Hyde of the Giants
In an episode of That ’70s Show, Hyde teaches Jackie how to be Zen so she can better deal with insults from a rival:
In the Forman basement, Jackie is saying “whatever”; Hyde keeps telling her to say it again. Jackie suggests that they move on; Hyde explains that she can say more by saying less, then demonstrates; he tells Jackie that she should be Laurie and he’ll be Jackie, and tells her to insult him. Jackie tells him that he’s stupid; Hyde says “whatever.” He then explains that she should also use ambiguity, and tells her to ask him to a movie. She does, and he says, “That’s cool,” and explains that she doesn’t know what that means; if he’ll go to the movie or not. Donna comes in and asks Jackie if she wants to go to the mall; Jackie says, “That’s cool.” Donna asks what she means and Jackie gets excited that it worked, but then acts cool, and says, “Whatever.”
Lincecum is asking $13 million. The Giants are offering $8 million. What we’re worried about, then, is that Lincecum might go into a huge sulk if the arbiter rules that Timmy must play six months of baseball for $8 million dollars.
Even if he wins the judgment, his heart and spirit could be broken.
Lincecum, to his credit, seems much less concerned than are many of his fans and media backers.
“If anybody knows my flaws, I do,” Lincecum said last week. “If (the Giants) are going to put them out and that has to happen, whatever.”
See? “Whatever.” Exactly.
That’s cool.
Either way, Tim walks away a rich man. Another Cy Young award and it will become difficult to deny him the higher figure in future battles. I don’t really see how he can lose this one, although I thought Barry Bonds would win all three of his battles. He lost each one.
Posted by David Pinto at 10:07 am | Pitchers | Permalink | 3 Comments
February 9, 2010
Balentien Blast
Redleg Nation wonders if Wladimir Balentien might be the answer to the Reds hole in leftfield.
Posted by David Pinto at 9:44 am | Players | Permalink | No Comments
February 9, 2010
Pohlad on Mauer
Jim Pohlad, who took over for his father as the face of the Twins ownership, talked about Joe Mauer and his possible contract. He didn’t talk specifics, but noted that they wouldn’t include deferred compensation and that payroll would be 50% of revenue, which is getting a boost from Target Field.
Lead owner Jim Pohlad said it’s a sustainable development. So even if the Twins sign Joe Mauer to a mammoth contract extension, they’re not afraid it would cost too much to keep a contending-caliber core of players around the American League MVP.
“I think Target Field puts us in better position to make sure that we have a competitive team from year to year,” Pohlad said Monday. “Names will come and names will go, but overall the objective is always to have the best team on the field.”
The Twins did a very good job of keeping a good team on the field with less money. If Target Field allows them them to keep their best players instead of trading them or letting walk via free agency, they should be able to take the team to the next level, league championships rather than division titles.
Posted by David Pinto at 9:40 am | Players | Permalink | No Comments
February 8, 2010
Players A to Z, Alan Embree
Alan Embree pitched for the Colorado Rockies in 2009. He currently looks for work as a free agent. Embree is another pitcher with good values for his three true outcomes, especially his strikeouts, 8.0 per 9 IP for his career. Embree’s FIP is 4.12 versus a career ERA of 4.58. That means he’s allow almost 1/2 a run per nine innings more that we should expect. Has he played his whole career with a poor defense behind him, or is there another explanation?
We don’t have batted ball data for Embree before 2002, but what’s clear from the available data is that he suffered from some high line drives rates in some seasons.
The only other thing I can point to is a very high slugging percentage with a man on first, and men on first and second. That may mean a few more runners scoring from first than is usual. Those two situations account for about 1/2 of the at bats against him, but 33 of 47 home runs he allowed came at those times.
His strikeout rate fell to 4.4 per nine in 2009. He also broke his tibia, causing him to miss the rest of the season. The combination of the two may be keeping him from finding work in 2010.
Posted by David Pinto at 9:09 pm | Pitchers, Players A to Z | Permalink | No Comments
February 8, 2010
Foot Under the Knife
Cliff Lee underwent foot surgery Friday:
It doesn’t sound like a major deal, but it will slow him down early in camp. Lee had a spur in his foot that recently broke loose from its attachment, and the surgery, conducted by Dr. Bryan Burke, removed the floating spur. According to the press release, the procedure alleviated irritation and discomfort in the joint and surrounding tissues.
Lee will not require a cast and over a period of two to three weeks will gradually return to all normal baseball activities. The first workout for pitchers and catchers is a week from Thursday in Peoria, Ariz. For seven to 10 days, Lee will be able to bear weight on the left foot and continue his upper-body exercise program.
This sounds like something that probably would not have kept Lee out of the rotation. Long term, I’m guessing that removing it now means fewer problems later.
Posted by David Pinto at 8:26 pm | Injuries, Pitchers | Permalink | No Comments
February 8, 2010
Looking Back at Projections
The Book Blog posts the latest comparisons of 2009 projection systems to reality. Marcels do very well. This makes me happy, since I like to use them when calculating run predictions for various teams. Since Marcels are not based on park, they’re really good when players change teams over the off-season.
Posted by David Pinto at 2:04 pm | Predictions | Permalink | 2 Comments
February 8, 2010
Selig Statue
Brewers will unveil Bud Selig statue at Miller Park. Why? He has been the sport’s greatest commissioner, has ushered in a new golden age.
If they want to give him credit for bringing baseball back to Milwaukee, fine. It’s tough to be objective about history, however, when the person is still making it.
Update: More on the statue here.
Posted by David Pinto at 1:37 pm | Commissioner | Permalink | 6 Comments
February 8, 2010
Beat Reporter for the Fans
Fire Jim Bowden is asking you to donate to Mark Zuckerman, so he can be an independent voice covering the Nationals during spring training. It’s a great concept, as newspapers die, fans employ the beat writers!
Posted by David Pinto at 11:54 am | News Media | Permalink | 1 Comment
February 8, 2010
Old Jose Tabata Fine, How You?
There seems to be some doubt about the age of Pirates prospect Jose Tabata.
Let’s say a 21 year-old Tabata qualifies in the Top 51-75 range, with an expected surplus value of $14.2 million during the first six years of his big league career. If he is actually 23 or 24, it’s a safe assumption that he would fall off the top 100 entirely, and would place in the Grade B hitters as rated by Sickels. That’s a hit of $8.7 million in expected surplus value ($14.2 million in surplus value as a Top 51-75 hitter to $5.5 million in surplus value as a Grade B hitter not making BA’s Top 100 list).
A 21 year-old Tabata has considerable value. A 23 or 24 year-old Tabata, however, is much more of a question mark. It would appear that the outfielder’s age is actually a very large issue for the Bucs.
On top of that is the issue of how much the Yankees knew about the age difference. They didn’t seem to be quick to correct Alfonso Soriano’s age until he was traded away.
Posted by David Pinto at 11:49 am | Players | Permalink | 1 Comment
February 8, 2010
Evans Gets his Due
Via 6-4-2, Dan Evans gets credit for helping build the current Dodgers team.
Posted by David Pinto at 9:35 am | Management | Permalink | No Comments
February 8, 2010
Youngster in the Majors
Mac Thomason gives us his review of Jason Heyward, who appears will make the Braves major league roster at the age of 20.
There’s a lot to be excited about. At the same time, let’s be careful here. Post-integration, there are only about ten players who have had really great seasons at twenty years old, and actually only about ten more who have had good seasons. Since 1991, the former group includes A-Rod and the latter Justin Upton; that’s about it. If Heyward were to be league average, he would be about as good as Hank Aaron was as a twenty year old.
That’s an interesting take. Thomason is looking at Heyward in terms of what the Braves will do this year. I would suspect, however, that players who became regulars by the time they were 20 went on to rather spectacular careers, especially the ones who just had good seasons. If Heyward is good at age 20, the probability of him begin a superstar in his prime goes way up.
Posted by David Pinto at 9:20 am | Players | Permalink | 1 Comment
February 8, 2010
History Minute
More Hardball celebrates Black History month.
Posted by David Pinto at 9:06 am | Humor | Permalink | No Comments
February 7, 2010
Players A to Z, Jacoby Ellsbury
Jacoby Ellsbury plays outfield for the Boston Red Sox. His strength as a player comes from his speed, which in three MLB seasons resulted in 129 stolen bases in 152 attempts, a 85% success rate. That’s truly outstanding. Jacoby doesn’t show much power, but his OBP improved in 2009, his second full year in the majors. At .355, he’s still not quite lead-off material, but he’s getting close.
Ellsbury’s speed should help with his defense as well, but 2009 turned out to be a negative year in that regard. (Maybe he needed the competition from Coco Crisp.) That falloff could also be the reason the Red Sox are moving him to left and putting the older Mike Cameron in center.
Jacoby will play 2010 as a 26-year-old, still early in his prime years. I’d love to see his OBP pick up more over the next two or three seasons. With his ability to steal, a .370 OBP batting in front of Pedroia would give the Red Sox an extremely dangerous pair of table setters.
Posted by David Pinto at 11:15 pm | Players, Players A to Z | Permalink | No Comments
February 7, 2010
Saints Win
Congratulations to the New Orleans Saints on their Super Bowl victory! If they can win the big game, maybe the Cubs can win the World Series.
Posted by David Pinto at 10:56 pm | Other | Permalink | No Comments
February 7, 2010
Players A to Z, Mark Ellis
Mark Ellis plays second base for the Oakland Athletics. He reached the majors at age 25, just as he entered his peak years. He posted very good OBPs in two of his first three years, with excellent power for a middle infielder in 2005. That, however, was his age 28 season, and he started fading after that. Over the last four seasons, his slash line comes in at .257/.322/.404, not that great.
Ellis’s value over that time came from his excellent fielding. That took a hit in 2009, however. If that repeats, the A’s likely won’t pick up his option for 2011.
Posted by David Pinto at 10:35 pm | Players, Players A to Z | Permalink | 1 Comment
February 7, 2010
Players A to Z, David Eckstein
David Eckstein plays middle infield for the San Diego Padres. He’s one of my favorite players as we share the same first name and height. Eckstein’s specialty was getting on base. He had no power, as 80% of his hits were singles. He walked just enough to keep his OBP above average.
The lack of power really hurt, however, as FanGraphs shows David with few seasons in which he generated a positive number of runs. His value came from a decent OBP at shortstop compared to most players at the position. His defense, however, has deteriorated over the last few years. His height hurts his range, and he always had to put extra mustard on a throw to get it to first. It looks good when he completes a play, but I bet there were a lot he just missed that other, bigger shortstops would have completed.
David is fun to watch, letting us know that baseball is still a sport where size matters less. He’s posted very poor OBPs in two of the last three seasons, so I believe he won’t last in the majors much longer.
Posted by David Pinto at 9:36 pm | Players, Players A to Z | Permalink | No Comments
February 7, 2010
Score!
Walk like a Sabermetrician wants your scoresheets.
Posted by David Pinto at 8:29 pm | Blogs, Scoring | Permalink | No Comments
February 7, 2010
Players A to Z, Adam Eaton
Adam Eaton pitched for the Baltimore Orioles and Colorado Rockies in 2009. He was released by both teams and now looks for work as a free agent. He may have trouble finding it. In his 10 seasons of major league ball, Eaton never posted an ERA under 4.00. The 2003 season was his best, with good K, BB and HR rates, but he could never get all three great.
Since 2006, however, all those average have been poor. His 6.19 ERA in those four years likely means he’ll be out of baseball in 2010.
Posted by David Pinto at 8:15 pm | Pitchers, Players A to Z | Permalink | No Comments
February 7, 2010
Players A to Z, Jermaine Dye
Jermaine Dye played outfield for the Chicago White Sox in 2009. He currently looks for work as a free agent. Dye would play 2010 as a 36-year-old, and teams seem to be less interested in older free agents today.
Dye’s strength as a hitter lies in his power. Dye probably was not quite ready for the majors when he came up at age 21 in 1996. In his first three seasons he slugged just .394, drawing so few walks that he managed just a .287 OBP despite a .252 BA. His prime was excellent, however, with a high BA, good OBP, and an excellent slugging percentage. His career year came as a 32-year-old, however, when he posted a .315/.385/.622 slash line in 2006. Since, however, that’s come down to .267/.334/.496, so the power he generates costs more outs.
Dye is slowly fading as a hitter, but he should still be useful to some team. Like Adam Dunn, however, at this point in his career his defensive failures remove any good he contributes offensively. Unless there’s a space for him as a designated hitter, he can’t help much.
Posted by David Pinto at 6:17 pm | Players, Players A to Z | Permalink | No Comments
February 7, 2010
Players A to Z, Chad Durbin
Chad Durbin pitches in relief for the Philadelphia Phillies. In his 10 seasons in the majors, Durbin both started and relieved. His opposition batting stats show he’s much more suited to the relief role. As a reliever he strikes out 7.1 batter per 9, versus 4.8 as a starter, hence the much lower batting average allowed. He also gives up nine fewer home runs per 200 innings as a reliever, lowering his slugging percentage allowed as well. He does walk about a batter more per 9 as a reliever, but the trade-off works as he does lower his opposition OBP with the many fewer hits.
That doesn’t mean he’s a great reliever. The 2008 season was his best ever with a 2.87 ERA. His ERAs are as likely to be over six as under 5.00. With no real platoon difference between lefties and righties, the best place to use Chad is when the game has already been decided.
Posted by David Pinto at 12:19 pm | Pitchers, Players A to Z | Permalink | No Comments
February 7, 2010
Hayhurst Lost
Right shoulder soreness led to labrum surgery for Dirk Hayhurst.
Though the club expects Hayhurst to miss four to six months with the injury, shoulder surgeries are notoriously unpredictable. When starter Dustin McGowan underwent surgery on his frayed labrum in July 2008, the club expected him back in the rotation by May of 2009. Eighteen months after the operation McGowan still hasn’t returned to action.
Hayhurst owns a strange minor league record. Despite great strikeout and walk numbers, along with decent home run totals, he gives up a ton of hits and an ERA over 4.00. Was the Padres minor league defense that bad?
Posted by David Pinto at 10:20 am | Injuries, Pitchers | Permalink | No Comments
February 6, 2010
Players A to Z, Adam Dunn
Adam Dunn gets a piece of a pitch. Photo: Icon SMI
Adam Dunn plays the outfield for the Washington Nationals. (They seem to be trying to corner the market on players whose last name begins with Du.) Fielders might take a rest when Dunn is at the plate as over 44% of his plate appearances result in a walk, HBP or strikeout. Add in his 316 home runs, and close to 50% of the time there’s nothing to do for the defense behind the pitcher.
The results are very positive for Dunn. His high walk rate helps him to an excellent .383 career OBP, while his home runs put his slugging percentage at .520. Basically, Dunn’s batting average represents a very small percentage of his offense.
Dunn used to steal well, as he stole 57 bases in 75 attempts through the 2007 season. He’s only run four times since.
Adam broke his streak of five consecutive years with at least 40 home runs (inlcuding four straight years with exactly 40). He came close, however, hitting 38 for the Nationals.
His fielding is horrible, however. The last two years he’s given back as many runs with his glove as he generated with his bat. He either needs to move to first base, or migrate to the American League where as a designated hitter his offense won’t be dilutied by his defense.
Posted by David Pinto at 10:26 pm | Players, Players A to Z | Permalink | No Comments
February 6, 2010
Players A to Z, Chris Duncan
Chris Duncan played outfield for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2009. He recently signed with the Washington Nationals. Duncan’s offensive production flamed in and flamed out very quickly. At age 25 he played 90 games and posted a .363 OBP and a .589 slugging percentage. His slugging percentage dropped 109 points the next season, then another 115 points in 2008. His OBP was dropping, too, but remained about average.
In 2009, however, everything fell apart. He posted a slash line of .227/.329/.358, not the kind of numbers a team wants from a corner outfielder. When you examine his minor league record, however, it’s clear that his age 25 season was a fluke. With a minor league slash line of .259/.337/.411, there was no reason to expect him to be a power hitter.
The Cardinals recognized he was a platoon player and batted him almost always against right-handed pitchers. By using him correctly, putting Chris in situations where he was more likely to succeed, the Cardinals managed to get a few good seasons out of the hitter.
Posted by David Pinto at 8:46 pm | Players, Players A to Z | Permalink | No Comments
February 6, 2010
Gene, Gene, the Doping Machine
John Hawks posts about gene doping, and how difficult it might be to detect:
The essay includes a few paragraphs that describe the prospects of future detection of gene doping. It may be very difficult. Detecting some synthetic performance-enhancing agents requires the cooperation of primary producers, who add tracers to their products. Gene doping might enhance performance for periods months or years after the vector is administered, and may not require dosage that would significantly alter isotopic or chemical signatures, even if they contained such tracers.
Again, maybe it would be better just to make this sort of thing legal and transparent, rather than wasting money trying to detect and outlaw it.
Posted by David Pinto at 6:26 pm | Cheating | Permalink | 1 Comment
February 6, 2010
Tweeting to Fame
Wheaties is holding a Most Valuable Tweeter contest during the Super Bowl tomorrow.
Posted by David Pinto at 5:00 pm | Contests | Permalink | No Comments
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