Monthly Archives: March 2013

March 31, 2013

Bo Knows Wins

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Bo Porter makes a successful managerial debut as the Astros pound the Rangers 8-2. Porter made one interesting strategic move. When Bud Norris tired with two out in the sixth, Erik Bedard came in to relieve. He does not need to be used as a starter for a while, and Erik finished the game, allowing just one hit while striking out two. Porter also inserted Rick Ankiel at the right time. Bo coached Rick in Washington, and the former pitcher responded with a pinch-hit, three-run homer. Justin Maxwell tripled twice, and now is on a pace for 324 on the season. 🙂

The Astros have a very nice opening game, with good pitching and some timely hitting. The right side of the Texas defense looked a little shaky, so keep your eyes on that as the season plays out.

March 31, 2013 March 31, 2013

2013 AL Central Preview

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The division preview series continues with the AL Central. The starting point for my analysis is the 2012 WAR of the position players, the starting rotation and the closer. All WAR numbers come from FanGraphs. The Royals play the White Sox and the Tigers play the Twins to start division play at 4 PM EDT Monday.

Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander

Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander combined for nearly 14 WAR in 2012. Photo: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Detroit Tigers

  • Position Player WAR: 31.6
  • Pitcher WAR: 21.9
  • Total: 53.5

I added this three times to make sure it was right. Fifty three and a half WAR would give the Tigers 100 wins without contributions from anyone else. This includes a 0.0 for Victor Martinez, who didn’t play in 2012. Is the number reasonable? Omar Infante is coming off a 3.0 WAR, the best of his career. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him drop to a one. Jhonny Peralta turned in a 2.5. He’s getting older, but that’s not an unreasonable number. Torii Hunter‘s 5.1 seems very high for someone in his late 30s. I’d say a two is more likely this season.

The pitchers are all good. Maybe Anibal Sanchez breaks down again, and his 3.6 disappears. Maybe Rick Porcello pitches more like a fifth starter and drops two WAR. So maybe there is an excess of ten wins from career years.

Fine, but you also have to add two or three back for Victor Martinez and Al Alburquerque playing full seasons. The Tigers are probably a mid-40s teams in WAR, and they should end up with the best record in the AL. This is a magnificent squad.

Chicago White Sox

  • Position Player WAR: 17.1
  • Pitcher WAR: 14.0
  • Total: 31.1

Adam Dunn recovered from his poor 2011, while Paul Konerko fells from his good season that year. Both came in under 2.0 WAR at positions that should generate a ton of offense. Age appears to be catching up both these sluggers. Looking at the rest of the order, I don’t see much upside.

The strength of the team is the starting rotation. Sale and Peavy give them an excellent 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. The upside here belongs to Dylan Axelrod, who projects to excellent walk and home run numbers as the fifth starter.

Maybe Gordon Beckham finally figures out how to play. Tyler Flowers gets to catch for a full season, and that might add some wins. If Alexrod, Beckham, and Flowers play well, the team has a chance at a wild card slot.

Kansas City Royals

  • Position Player WAR: 15.6
  • Pitcher WAR: 8.6
  • Total: 24.2

I’m not sure what to make of the Royals. The remain a young team with good players in Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, and Salvador Perez. Eric Hosmer posted a -1.6 WAR in 2012, and it’s tough to believe he’s that bad long term. There’s plenty of room for upside. Unfortunately, they still trot out Jeff Francoeur and Jonathan Sanchez, who just are not very good. There’s upside, but I’d be happier with the team if those two names were gone and two 0.0 WAR players were given jobs. Even if things break right, I don’t think this is the year for the Royals.

Cleveland Indians

  • Position Player WAR: 22.4
  • Pitcher WAR: 4.2
  • Total: 26.6

I like that Cleveland finally gave up on Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner. I appreciate the loyalty, but waiting for those two players to overcome injuries kept Cleveland from making moves that could have improved the team. Now they’ve picked up Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, which gives them a good core of position players. Lonnie Chisenhall has a chance to give them an improvement at third as well.

The rotation, however, has the most upside potential. Ubaldo Jimenez showed signs of regaining his control this spring. Brett Myers returns to a starting role. Scott Kazmir worked his way back to the majors. If those three can post a 2.0 WAR each, the Indians are competing with Chicago for second place and a possible wild card spot. I like what the front office is trying here. We’ll see if it works.

Minnesota Twins

  • Position Player WAR: 9.5
  • Pitcher WAR: 4.3
  • Total: 13.8

The Twins have upside potential simply due to a number of their players having not played much in 2012. That said, a number of them posted negative WARs in their short time on the field, and a lot more of a negative isn’t a good thing. The Twins should do better in 2013, but at the moment they don’t look like they have the talent to compete.

Keep your eye on Justin Morneau. If he has finally recovered from his concussion, they should score a bit from the combination of Justin and Joe Mauer.

Predictions:

Here’s how I see the probability of each team winning the division:

  • Tigers 60%
  • White Sox 20%
  • Indians 9%
  • Royals 8%
  • Twins 3%

I’m probably underestimating the Tigers here, but teams can be devastated by injuries quickly. That may be the only thing that can stop them.

March 31, 2013 March 31, 2013

Making the Case for Replay

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In the middle of the third inning, the Rangers/Astros game is showing why MLB needs to adopt an expanded replay sooner rather than later. The second blown call ends the top of the third as Elvis Andrus is called out on a line drive to centerfield that was trapped. I thought it was fairly obvious live that it bounced into the glove, but it was clear on the replay. Not a good night for the umpires so far, as they made a bad out call on a stolen base earlier.

March 31, 2013

This Bud’s for You

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Bud Norris pitches a fine first inning, retiring the Rangers in order, striking out one batter. He threw just 11 pitches, seven for strikes. I love his first pitch, a fastball on the lower, outside corner. Greg Maddux would be proud.

The Astros come to bat for the first time as American Leaguers.

Update: First pitch, first swing, first hit for Jose Altuve as he hits a single through the shortstop hole in the bottom of the first.

Update: The first bad call of the year as Jose Altuve is called out as he tried to advance on a ball that got away from the Rangers catcher. The replay showed he was safe.

Update: The hit is all the Astros get. No score at the end of one.

March 31, 2013 March 31, 2013

2013 NL Central Preview

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The division preview series continues with the NL Central. The starting point for my analysis is the 2012 WAR of the position players, the starting rotation and the closer. All WAR numbers come from FanGraphs. The Cubs and Pirates play the first game in the division early Monday afternoon.

This should be a very close race for the top spot in the division.

Cincinnati Reds

  • Position Player WAR: 24.0
  • Pitcher WAR: 17.5
  • Total: 41.5

The Reds are scary good. Every member of their position player core posted at least a two WAR in 2012. There’s probably some upside to the offensive numbers as well, since Joey Votto missed a good chunk of the season and still managed a 5.6 WAR. I love the way Shin-Soo Choo fits on this team, giving the Reds some more OBP.

Joey Votto

A healthy Joey Votto could challenge the single season doubles record. Photo: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

The pitching is just as good, with Mike Leake the only player in the 14 man core with a WAR under two, and he comes in at 1.3 WAR. This is a rotation that ranks with the best in the league, with two aces in Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos, and two hurlers who would be #2 on many teams, Bronson Arroyo and Homer Bailey.

A key for this team will be staying healthy once again. The Reds needed just one start outside of their five-man rotation in 2012. That will be tough to repeat.

The Reds have more than enough talent to make the playoffs either as the division winner or the wild card.

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Position Player WAR: 27.4
  • Pitcher WAR: 12.8
  • Total: 40.2

As I’m going through the divisions, I’m impressed with the number of teams going into the season with 40 WAR cores. With replacement level set at about 48 wins, a 40 WAR puts a team at 88 wins without much consideration for the back of the bullpen and the bench. There’s a lot that can go wrong for a team like this, and still have them make the playoffs. This used to be the domain of the Yankees and Red Sox, but with money flooding the game, other teams are now able to build this type of core, as they no longer let their great players go early.

The Cardinals position players rate higher than the Reds, but they go about constructing the team differently. While the Reds spread out their WAR fairly evenly, the Cardinals concentrate half their WAR in three players, Yadier Molina, David Freese, and Matt Holliday. The Molina 6.2 WAR concerns me the most. He now has nine seasons of heavy duty catching under his belt. He plays 2013 as a 30-year old, and his 2012 season is an outlier given his career. Don’t be surprised to see him drop back to around a three WAR, or even further if the wear and tear of his defensive position finally catches up to him. In addition, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday are a year older. Decline is more likely for them. At the end of the season, I suspect the position player core will be closer to 24 WAR than 27.

The starting rotation and closer are solid but not outstanding. The could get a big boost from Adam Wainwright regaining his Cy Young form a year removed from his surgery.

This is a team that will challenge the Reds for the division title, and be in a very good place for a wild card if they finish short of the title.

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Position Player WAR: 24.2
  • Pitcher WAR: 9.5
  • Total: 33.7

The Brewers are a pitching staff away from competing for the NL Central crown. The front of the rotations is very good, with Yovani Gallardo, Kyle Lohse, and Marco Estrada. They have some upside potential as Gallardo is capable of better numbers than he posted in 2012, and young Wily Peralta gets his first full season in the majors.

The position players are very good without a real first basemen currently on the roster. Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez provide much of the value, but a better season from Rickie Weeks and a strong return from Corey Hart would go a long way toward making the Brewers playoff contenders.

This is a good team with some weaknesses. A wild card is certainly a possibility, and a division win if everything breaks right.

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Position Player WAR: 17.5
  • Pitcher WAR: 7.1
  • Total: 24.6

The last two seasons, the Pirates have been a Sham:

(I still get goose bumps whenever I watch that race. In crew they call that winning by the curvature of the earth.)

What bothers me is that the Pirates, with the majors awash in money, did very little to help the team this winter. Russell Martin will likely help the pitching staff, but his offense is fading. Travis Snider might finally realize his potential, but on the other hand, the Pirates are full of players who did not realize their potential. Jonathan Sanchez certainly looked done last year. Maybe the team finally matures around Andrew McCutchen, but I’m not betting on that.

The team needs to find eight more wins just to get over .500. We’ll see what happens.

Chicago Cubs

  • Position Player WAR: 15.2
  • Pitcher WAR: 8.8
  • Total: 24.0

The thing to watch with the Cubs this season is the maturation of the core of the future, Starlin Castro, Anthony Rizzo, and Jeff Samardzija (46 points in Scrabble). There’s not a lot behind them right now, but there may be enough to catch the Pirates. I expect a better record than in 2012, but not a playoff contender. Also watch to see how the complexion of the team changes over the summer as the Cubs try to build an organization that constantly feeds talent to the major league squad.

Predictions:

Here’s how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division:

  • Reds 36%
  • Cardinals 34%
  • Brewers 25%
  • Cubs 3%
  • Pirates 2%

For the first time in a while, I’m really down on the Pirates. I hope they prove me wrong.

March 31, 2013

Game of the Day

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The 2013 baseball season gets underway tonight as the Houston Astros play their first game as an American League franchise as they host their state rival the Texas Rangers. Matt Harrison takes the hill for Texas against Bud Norris.

I’m not surprised that Harrison’s improvement as a pitch coincided with the arrival of Adrian Beltre in Texas. Harrison doesn’t strike out many batters, but does induce ground balls. As a left-hander, he sees a high percentage of right-handed batters. Beltre and Elvis Andrus form a brick wall on the left-side of the infield. Combine that with Harrison finding his control, and the Rangers have a pitcher with an ERA in the low threes.

Norris could use some of that defense. In three of his four seasons in the majors, his ERA came in higher than his FIP. He strikes out a ton of batters, so he keeps pressure off his defense, but his walk and home run rates somewhat negate that.

Enjoy!

March 31, 2013

The Franchise

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Adam Kilgore previews the Nationals first opening day with Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. It will be the first time two number picks, one a pitcher and one a batter, start on opening day for the same team. It’s a mutual admiration society:

Says Harper: “When he’s pitching, we’re all excited to watch. Everything can be different that game. Something could happen that you never see ever again, because he’s pitching and he’s unbelievable.”

Says Strasburg: “He’s a little more the aggressive type. He’ll go out there, and he’ll try to take the extra bag. Sometimes, it’s going to burn him. That’s one thing that enables him to do things you’ve never seen before. You never see guys hitting flares over the shortstop for a stand-up double. You don’t see that.”

It may be Easter for much of the world, but it’s Strasmas eve in Washington.

They are the new Mickey Mantle and Whitey Ford. The age difference is about the same, although I don’t know if Ford was ever hyped like Strasburg. Washington hopes they’ll be as successful as those 1950s Yankees teams.

March 31, 2013

Pledge Drive Update

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Happy Easter!

Twenty seven people donated a total of $1067 dollars over the first thirty days of the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Today is the last day, won’t you join them?

Since 2005, I’ve asked for readers to support the site with a donation. Since I’ve needed to scale back my work here due to taking a full time job, I thought that scaling back the pledge drive would be appropriate. The main cost of running the site is the data for the Day by Day Database. If you are a user of that tool, please consider an update to help defray the cost.

Larger donations earn you a premium. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Peter Gammons and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink.

Donations can be made via PayPal. Unfortunately, other donations providers have gone out of business or charge too much money in fees. If you refuse to use Pay Pal but still wish to donate, please contact me and I’ll provide an address for a check. My email is pinto@baseballmusings.com.





Thank you for your help!

March 30, 2013

Turley Passes

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Bob Turley died Saturday morning:

Turley pitched one season for the Orioles in 1954, their first in Baltimore, and he started the first big league game at Memorial Stadium. He was traded to the New York Yankees, with whom he won the Cy Young Award in 1958.

Turley was typical of Yankees pitchers of the 1950s. They pitched well with New York, but no so great once they left. Turley walked a ton of batters, but Casey Stengel didn’t mind that if the pitcher could also induce ground balls. Stengel insisted on great defense up the middle, and those extra base runners could be turned into double plays.

My thought go out to his family and friends.

March 30, 2013

2013 AL East Preview

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The division preview series continues with the AL East. The starting point for my analysis is the 2012 WAR of the position players, the starting rotation and the closer. All WAR numbers come from FanGraphs. The Red Sox and Yankees play the first game in the division early Monday afternoon.

It looks like this may be the best AL East race in a very long time. The division looks somewhat evenly matched.

New York Yankees

  • Position Player WAR: 13.4
  • Pitcher WAR: 12.4
  • Total: 25.8

The above totals do not include Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, or Curtis Granderson. If they did, the total would be about seven WAR higher, which would give the Yankees the best offense in the division. We don’t know how the injuries will play out, however. Jeter’s rehabilitation was going well until he actually played on the ankle. The Yankees won’t bring him off the disabled list until Derek can play two nine innings games in a row at short. There is a non-zero probability that Mark Teixeira’s injury keeps him out for most of the season. The most likely to return on time is Granderson, due to his just needed a bone to heal. Given all that, these numbers have an upside, but with a great deal of uncertainty.

On the pitching side, the Yankees look better, with a good front line, and some depth with Ivan Nova, David Phelps, and Phil Hughes backing up CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, and Hiroki Kuroda. They might even have some upside from Mariano Rivera back in the bullpen.

If everyone comes back healthy and things break right, the Yankees could win the division again. Right now, however, they look much closer to last.

Baltimore Orioles

  • Position Player WAR: 15.6
  • Pitcher WAR: 8.3
  • Total: 24.9

The biggest place for upside in the Orioles numbers lies with Manny Machado. At 19 years old, he showed he could hit for power in 1/3 of a season, posting 1.9 WAR. A six war season from the youngster would boost Baltimore in a very close division. The Orioles can also hope for a healthy Brian Roberts, but it’s been so long since he played regularly, I’m not sure how much he can do for the team at this point. Both players did have good springs, so at least they go into the season with that as a huge positive.

Pitching is the team’s weak spot. The team doesn’t really have an ace, nor do they have five players who might be depended on for two WAR each. Unless they can recreate their great record in close games, they will likely finish near the bottom of the division.

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Position Player WAR: 15.9
  • Pitcher WAR: 12.2
  • Total: 28.1

The Rays are just full of upside. The biggest boost in WAR would come from a full season of Evan Longoria. Evan posted 2.5 WAR in half a season in 2012. Fully healthy, he’s produced seven to eight WAR in a season. In addition, Desmond Jennings, Matt Moore, and Aaron Cobb are all maturing. James Loney and Roberto Hernandez (a.k.a. Fausto Carmona) were on the negative side of WAR in 2012, but they just need to flip the sign to contribute to a playoff push.

I like the Rays for second place in the division, with a win if everything goes right. They may have a hard time competing with the strong AL West teams for a wild card, however.

Josh Johnson

A healthy Josh Johnson gives the jays the potential for two aces in the rotation. Photo: Derick Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Position Player WAR: 19.5
  • Pitcher WAR: 15.8
  • Total: 35.3

The Blue Jays bring the best position player and pitcher WAR in the division to the table. I love the way the front office realized this would be a year of weakness in the AL East, and moved to fill the gap.

I get the feeling there is more downside than upside with the team, however. A full season of Jose Bautista should put them over the top for the division win, but he is coming off an injury, and Bautista is not that young. Jose Reyes and Josh Johnson are injury risks. The Jays don’t really know how well Melky Cabrera will play off PEDs. Brett Lawrie is already on the disabled list with an oblique injury, the kind of injury that prevents any kind of baseball activity until it is healed.

Still the Blue Jays have a nice cushion versus the rest of the division, so even a set back or two should not hurt that much. The AL East is their’s to lose.

Boston Red sox

  • Position Player WAR: 18.0
  • Pitcher WAR: 9.5
  • Total: 27.5

Everytime I look at the Red Sox I come away impressed. It’s not a great team, nothing like the squads that took the field during the aughties. Even with out Stephen Drew and David Ortiz, it is a solid team. I’d say they are looking at wins in the mid-80s, and it’s just a bit of good luck from there to 90 wins and a playoff spot.

Some of that luck could come from rookie Jackie Bradley Jr. He posted great OBPs in the minors, over .400 in 138 games with great doubles power. He should love Fenway park. If he can post a three WAR, the Red Sox will be closer to second place than last.

In addition, with John Farrell back, Jon Lester may return to his best form. This is not the dysfunctional squad from last season, and there’s a great chance they surprise their fans.

Predictions:

Here’s how I see the probability of each team winning the division:

  • Blue Jays 30%
  • Rays 20%
  • Red Sox 18%
  • Yankees 16%
  • Orioles 16%

Any of the five could win the division, but none of them may make the wild card game. It’s an evenly balanced division, but not a strong division. I’d love to see a five-way tie, each team with 85 wins.

March 30, 2013

2013 NL East Preview

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The division preview series continues with the NL East. The starting point for my analysis is the 2012 WAR of the position players, the starting rotation and the closer. All WAR numbers come from FanGraphs. The Marlins and Nationals play the first game in the division early Monday afternoon.

Washington Nationals

  • Position Player WAR: 25.3
  • Pitcher WAR: 17.1
  • Total: 42.4

The Nationals should be the odds on favorites to win the NL East in 2013. They come in with both the highest position player WAR in the division (Braves are second) and the highest pitcher WAR in the division (Phillies are second). The core WAR puts them at the level of playoff team. The rest of the division is already looking up at the Nationals, and that WAR may be a floor, not a ceiling.

Bryce Harper is still maturing, and one might expect his 4.5 WAR to improve with not just another year of growth, but getting to play the full season. Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth suffered injuries that kept their WAR numbers low. On the pitching side, Stephen Strasburg won’t be limited, and Dan Haren gets the chance to rebound from an off year. In other words, there is plenty of upside potential to mitigate any individual player declines from 2012.

In addition, the Nationals still have an excellent bullpen and some depth on the bench. This team could easily win 100 games.

Atlanta Braves

  • Position Player WAR: 19.2
  • Pitcher WAR: 13.0
  • Total: 32.2

In order for the Braves to catch the Nationals, a number of players need to realize their upside potential. The one that seems most likely to do that is Andrelton Simmons, who posted a 2.2 WAR in about 1/3 of a season in 2012. A six WAR from the young shortstop would get the Braves closer to the Washington, enough to let luck help them the rest of the way.. I suspect the Braves believe that a change of scenery will do the Upton brothers some good as well. Julio Teheran offers some upside as well. He was young for AAA, but pitched well there as a 20-year-old in 2011, but lost his strikeout touch in 2012. We’ll see if he gets it back in the majors. He K’d 35 in 26 spring innings.

One thing in the Braves favor is that they do look strong up the middle. If Brian McCann returns, they’ll have him with Dan Uggla and Simmons manning the middle infield, and B.J. Upton in center. The Natioanls are strong on the corners, so we’ll see if the old adage holds up in this division race.

The Braves should be in the playoff hunt come September.

Roy Halladay

Can Roy Halladay bounce back to be the star of starting stars in the NL East? Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Position Player WAR: 13.3
  • Pitcher WAR: 14.6
  • Total: 27.9

The Phillies rotation is right there with the Nationals, especially if Roy Halladay rebounds from his down 2011 season. Cole Hamels, given his age and ability probably should be the ace of this team, but when you’re competing with Halladay and Cliff Lee, it’s not bad to come in third. The weak spot in the rotation is John Lannan, who could not crack the Nationals starting staff in 2012.

The Phillies position players who put up big WAR number in 2012 are a year older, however. Carlos Ruiz starts the season with a suspension, while Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley are more likely to continue their declines. Ryan Howard could snap back from his negative 1.1, but I don’t see the offense being a big force on the team. Luckily, all they need is a decent showing giving their starting pitching. They’ll need everything to go right to get into playoff contention in 2013.

New York Mets

  • Position Player WAR: 9.8
  • Pitcher WAR: 7.0
  • Total: 16.8

The Mets get nearly half their core WAR from one player, David Wright. The front office, however, has not managed to surround him with a good supporting cast. Ike Davis looked like a poor man’s Rob Deer in 2012, with two few hits and two few walks to make up for the low batting average. People seem to like Colin Cowgill, but at the moment his career MLB OBP is higher than his slugging percentage, and his OBP is .319. I can see Ruben Tejada improving, and Dillon Gee having a break-out year, but that’s not going to be enough to put the Mets over the top. It looks like a long climb back to respectability for this team.

Miami Marlins

  • Position Player WAR: 10.1
  • Pitcher WAR: 5.4
  • Total: 15.5

The battle for last place in the NL East should be a good one. The Marlins own a slightly better offense, New York better core pitching. Like the Mets, the Marlins have one great player, Giancarlo Stanton, and nothing backing him up. The rest of the lineup is populated by a number of has-beens and never weres. It’s really tough to find any upside in this lineup. They may not finish last, but they won’t miss by much.

Predictions:

I suspect the Nationals should win this division fairly easily, with the Braves making the playoffs as well. Here are my guesses at the chances of each team winning the division:

  • Nationals 45%
  • Braves 30%
  • Phillies 20%
  • Mets 3%
  • Marlins 2%
March 30, 2013

2013 AL West Preview

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The division preview series starts with the AL West. The starting point for my analysis is the 2012 WAR of the position players, the starting rotation and the closer. All WAR numbers come from FanGraphs. The Rangers and Astros open the 2012 season Sunday night.

Oakland Athletics

  • Position Player WAR: 20.2
  • Pitcher WAR: 9.7
  • Total: 29.9

The A’s are in good shape to compete for a playoff spot. Among the 16 players represented above, there are three points with upside. Scott Sizemore did not play in the majors in 2012, but with a great career minor league OBP, he could easily add one to two WAR to the team. Yoenis Cespedes, with a major league season under his belt, should show improvement as well. Finally, a healthy Brett Anderson should do better than his 0.9 WAR in 2012. On the other hand, Josh Reddick‘s 4.5 WAR may not be repeatable. He didn’t get on base much, and a lot of his wins are based on defense.

The main players on Oakland should put them over .500. The bullpen pitched extremely well in 2012, with outstanding strikeout, walk, and home run numbers as a group. Relievers can be erratic from year to year, but if they do repeat their 2012 performance, Oakland will be in the hunt for the division, and certainly the wild card.

Texas Rangers

  • Position Player WAR: 21.5
  • Pitcher WAR: 13.0
  • Total: 34.5
Leonys Martin

Leonys Martin could be the next big star of the AL West. Photo: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

The big question for the Rangers is how much Leonys Martin will make up for the loss of Josh Hamilton. He posted a slightly negative WAR in 2012, but the various projection systems have him averaging around two WAR for 2013. That would certainly help. If Martin lives up to his potential, he can certainly replace Hamilton’s production.

The only other upside in the lineup is in the person of Nick Tepesch, scheduled to be the fifth starter for the team in lieu of injuries to the rest of the rotation. Nick posted very good walk numbers in minors and mostly kept the ball in the park. He should be a serviceable fifth starter.

Overall, however, I don’t see many numbers out of line with player expectations. My guess is that Adrian Beltre and A.J. Pierzynski will have trouble repeating their excellent 2012. I see 2012’s win total as the ceiling for this Texas team, but of course that did put them in the playoffs.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

  • Position Player WAR: 32.6
  • Pitcher WAR: 8.9
  • Total: 41.5

If the main core players of the Angels each match their 2012 WAR, the team makes the playoffs. Is there a reason to think they won’t? My feeling is that among the Angels hitters, there is more downside than upside potential.

Mike Trout, for example, not only posted an MVP season, but one of the great seasons of all time. A WAR of 10 is tough to repeat. If Trout posts a seven WAR in 2013, he would still be an MVP candidate, still a superstar, but the Angels would be down three wins. Much of Josh Hamilton’s 4.1 WAR came from a hot start in 2012, but he cooled off greatly in the hot Texas summer. Even Albert Pujols is at an age where a decline is more likely than a bounce back.

That’s the nice thing about going into the season with such a high batting WAR. There’s plenty of room of a fall off. The team might even get a boost from getting rid of Vernon Wells. The Angels have a nice cushion for decline.

I’m not that impressed with the pitchers, however. After Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson, the rotation is weak. I am slowly coming around to the notion that Joe Blanton really changed, and he’s a better hurler than he used to be, with the increase in strikeouts real. Still, this isn’t the blow batters away rotation the Angels often employ. Don’t be surprised to see a ton of 7-6 games from this team.

Seattle Mariners

  • Position Player WAR: 8.6
  • Pitcher WAR: 9.2
  • Total: 17.8

Is there something deadly about sending a hitter to Seattle, besides the former dimensions of the park? Jesus Montero posted a -0.4 WAR in 2012 despite little action on defense. With the Yankees and in the minors he showed great strike zone judgement. He only walked 29 times in 2012, good for just a .298 OBP. Do the Mariners encourage their batters to swing too much?

Montero recovering his OBP, along with improvement from Dustin Ackley and Ryan Seager will be the key to an improved Seattle season. Michael Morse and Kendrys Morales could be complementary players, but the two combined for just 1.6 WAR in 2012. Morse in the field doesn’t really help the team. Still, the upside for the offense is four or five wins.

The rotation has some upside as well. Twenty-two year old Brandon Maurer comes aboard the rotation, his first time in the majors. He showed excellent control throughout his minor league career. The other unknown is Tom Wilhelmsen, the Bartender. He quit baseball after being suspended for smoking weed, but in two minor league seasons since returning, posted a 9.4 K per 9 IP. At age 29, he’ll be the Seattle closer. Those two might give the team another three WAR.

Even with all the upside realized, the Mariners are not ready to compete. It will be a step in the right direction, and if everything breaks well, they could finish over .500.

Houston Astros

  • Position Player WAR: 6.9
  • Pitcher WAR: 5.1
  • Total: 12.0

I will go out on a limb and predict the Astros will win more than 60 games this season. I actually like the offense, as the Musings Marcels projections put them at the level of the Yankees and Nationals. Unfortunately for Houston, they don’t own the pitching that compares to those two teams.

Bud Norris gets the opening day start. He’ll strike out batters but also walk a few too many. It just goes down hill from there.

The front office of this team were instrumental in building the Cardinals, however. Keep your eye on the moves they make throughout the season to see where they take the team.

Predictions

Here’s my predicted probability of the teams winning the divison:

  • Angels 40%
  • Rangers 26%
  • Athletics 24%
  • Mariners 9%
  • Astros 1%

I suspect a very tough race among the top three teams, but I would not be shocked if the bottom two played the role of spoilers very well.

March 30, 2013

Pledge Drive Update

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Twenty seven people donated a total of $1067 dollars over the first twenty nine days of the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. With two days left, won’t you join them?

Since 2005, I’ve asked for readers to support the site with a donation. Since I’ve needed to scale back my work here due to taking a full time job, I thought that scaling back the pledge drive would be appropriate. The main cost of running the site is the data for the Day by Day Database. If you are a user of that tool, please consider an update to help defray the cost.

Larger donations earn you a premium. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Peter Gammons and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink.

Donations can be made via PayPal. Unfortunately, other donations providers have gone out of business or charge too much money in fees. If you refuse to use Pay Pal but still wish to donate, please contact me and I’ll provide an address for a check. My email is pinto@baseballmusings.com.





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March 29, 2013

Big Deal Day

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In addition to Buster Posey, Justin Verlander also landed a huge deal:

Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers have reached agreement on a new contract that could exceed $202 million, sources told ESPN’s Buster Olney.

Verlander’s deal, which would make him the highest-paid pitcher in the game, is for seven years and worth $180 million, sources said. A vesting option for an eighth year could push the deal to $202 million.

Verlander is that rare combination of good and durable. I’m not sure I would have gone out seven years on a 30-year-old, but he’s shown no sign of decline yet. As long as he doesn’t get hurt, I suspect he’ll be effective for the length of the contract.

In addition, the Diamondbacks extended Paul Goldschmidt for five years and $32 million. That should turn out to be an excellent signing, saving the DBacks any arbitration worries.

March 29, 2013

Pocket Full of Poseys, and Plenty of Pennies

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Raising Matt Cain seems very excited about this news:

Posey, Giants agree to eight-year extension
LAST YEAR’S NL MVP SIGNS FOR $167 MILLION, WITH CLUB OPTION FOR 2022, NO-TRADE CLAUSE

Here’s the story from ESPN:

The San Francisco Giants have signed Buster Posey to a landmark nine-year, $167 million contract, according to ESPN and multiple other media outlets.

Posey’s new deal is the longest ever for a catcher, and worth the second-most money after Joe Mauer‘s $184 million, eight-year deal with the Twins. It’s also the most money ever guaranteed to a player with fewer than three years of service time.

I’ll note that in the two years Buster was healthy, the Giants won the World Series both times. For those of you keeping score at home, 1955-2009, no Buster Posey, no Giants World Series wins. 2010-2012, Buster Posey plays, Giants with two World Series. I assume it would be three in a row without the collision in 2011. 🙂

His career averages right now are .314/.380/.503. Those are the numbers of a really good first baseman, and Buster posts those as a catcher. That gives the Giants a lot of room to maneuver with the rest of the lineup. Now, San Francisco doesn’t need to worry about arbitration or free agency until Buster is well past his prime. Congratulations to Buster, and it’s nice to see the people who are productive now getting the big bucks.

March 29, 2013

The Return of Dr. Fausto

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The pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona, the current Roberto Hernandez, made the Rays rotation:

Last year the Rays had a lot of success shifting Wade Davis from the rotation to the bullpen, as he went from a mediocre starter to a very good reliever (and then they traded him to the Royals).

This year they’re making the same shift with Jeff Niemann, moving him to the bullpen in an effort to ease his comeback from an injury wrecked 2012 that has left his spring velocity lacking. In his place the Rays have chosen Roberto Hernandez (formerly known as Fausto Carmona) for the final spot in the rotation.

Hernandez only made three starts for the Indians last season, pitching poorly. He struck out two in 14 innings. He was never much of a K pitcher, so the key to his success will be the excellent Rays defense and keeping his walk rate down. He is in the perfect place to make use of his strengths.

March 29, 2013

Pledge Drive Update

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Twenty seven people donated a total of $1067 dollars over the first twenty eight days of the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. With three days left, won’t you join them?

Since 2005, I’ve asked for readers to support the site with a donation. Since I’ve needed to scale back my work here due to taking a full time job, I thought that scaling back the pledge drive would be appropriate. The main cost of running the site is the data for the Day by Day Database. If you are a user of that tool, please consider an update to help defray the cost.

Larger donations earn you a premium. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Peter Gammons and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink.

Donations can be made via PayPal. Unfortunately, other donations providers have gone out of business or charge too much money in fees. If you refuse to use Pay Pal but still wish to donate, please contact me and I’ll provide an address for a check. My email is pinto@baseballmusings.com.





Thank you for your help!

March 28, 2013

Team Offense, Houston Astros

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The series on team offense finishes with the Houston Astros. The Astros finished last in the majors and the National League in 2012 with 3.60 runs scored per game. Houston joins the American League West this season.

The CBSSports.com projected lineup that Bo Porter may use is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results:

  • Best lineup: 4.58
  • Probable lineup: 4.54
  • Worst lineup: 4.42
  • Regressed lineup: 4.27

The first thing to notice is that there is not much difference between the best and worst order that Bo Porter can write on the lineup card. That usually means the hitters are pretty consistent throughout the lineup. Indeed, while there are no great OPBs or slugging percentages in the lineup, there are few bad ones. Porter does a good job of arranging these players. As I was tying in the lineup, I thought it would score well against the optimum, and Bo captures 75% of that value.

The upshot is that this team will probably be about league average in OBP and slugging percentage as a unit, meaning they’ll be close to league average in runs scored. That would be a huge improvement over 2012. On the other hand, this is the function of the Marcels. We don’t have a lot of information on many of these players, so the Monkey brings them toward league average. If nothing else, the Marcels give the Astros fans hope.

That hope may be well founded. I looked at the Bill James projections, which include minor league experience, and most of the James numbers would improve the outlook of the team. Be prepared for a pleasant surprise this year in Houston.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in the series:

If you enjoy this series, please consider donating the the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.

March 28, 2013

Nothing’s Right He’s Torn

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Johan Santana may miss all of 2013:

Mets GM Sandy Alderson said Thursday that an MRI on Santana’s ailing left shoulder revealed a “probable” re-tear of his shoulder capsule. If he has surgery, Santana would miss at least a year. The Mets owe Santana $25 million this season and $25 million more in 2014, but have the luxury of a buyout clause that would save them $19.5 million if they so choose. The Mets did not insure Santana’s $137.5 million contract, signed back in 2008, to save money on expensive premiums — a route many major league teams have taken in recent years.

It sounds like the probability is high that Johan never pitches for the Mets again. Times have changed:

March 28, 2013

Team Offense, Miami Marlins

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The series on team offense continues with the Miami Marlins. The Marlins finished twenty ninth in the majors and fifteenth in the National League in 2012 with 3.76 runs scored per game.

The CBSSports.com projected lineup that Mike Redmond may use is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers, the team’s 2012 results were used. That information produces the following results:

  • Best lineup: 4.39
  • Probable lineup: 4.05
  • Worst lineup: 3.70
  • Regressed lineup: 3.92

One thing forgotten in the fire sales and stadium scandals: The Marlins have a really good baseball operations front office. The team will play a legitimate heart of the order. Giancarlo Stanton and Rob Brantly are young and improving. They are surrounded by plenty of over-the-hill players, but if that group does a decent job of getting on base, the Marlins will score some runs.

The Marlins are an ephemeral team. The build quickly, they tear down quickly. They don’t wait around years for something to pay off. When they make a mistake, they move on, rather than wait years to see if the mistake gets corrected. Unfortunately, they pulled this in a year when they were supposed to be good. I’m guessing it will take a new owner to bring the fans back to the park, not just a winning team.

The Marlins offense will probably be better than you thought. It might not help their record that much, however.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in the series:

If you enjoy this series, please consider donating the the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.

March 28, 2013

Forsythe Saga

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Padres third basemen are falling as fast as WKRP turkeys.

Logan Forsythe was set to fill in for the injured Chase Headley at third base, but the Padres announced that he’ll miss at least six weeks with plantar fasciitis.

The expectations for the Padres keeping going down with the injuries. I was interested in seeing what Forsythe could do in a full season, since he could move to second base once Headley returned.

March 28, 2013

Spring Training: Detroit Tigers at Washington Nationals (3/22)

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Final Score: 4-3 Tigers

Melbourne, Florida has been the home of the Expos/Nationals since 2002, the same year that Prince Fielder left Melbourne after being drafted by the Brewers. Fielder, in the city where he spent his teenage years, almost managed to drive Stephen Strasburg from the game with a well-placed line drive that glanced off the pitcher’s glove hand. The sight of Strasburg grimacing in pain drew stunned gasps from the crowd, and his quick recovery evoked audible sighs of relief. The fans sitting around me, who were veteran season-ticket holders of the ballpark, took the possible injury in stride. Over the course of the game, their discussions ranged from the quality of recent trades to whether the Nationals would abandon Space Coast Stadium for a more appealing venue. My neighbor, Kyle, described her claim to fame as being the first person to ever scan a Nationals ticket and pointed out a former minor-leaguer who had once played with Joe DiMaggio. The friendliness and baseball intellect of the crowd proved to be the element that brought relatively mundane Space Coast Stadium to higher level. In fact, for spring training stadiums, the excitement of the crowd makes a significant difference in the perceived quality of the experience. A stadium can have a great seating plan, concessions concourse, and field, but still present baseball as an afterthought.

The Nationals game was the last of the 11 games I watched in Florida. Statistically, I saw 10 stadiums (sorry to the Orioles, Pirates, Rays, and Blue Jays) and 14 teams (really, really sorry to the Rays). Counting the journey from Massachusetts, the trip covered over 4,000 miles, including more than 1,500 miles in Florida alone. Despite the driving, there’s almost nothing better than getting to watch and write about baseball. Thanks to everyone who read these entries, and thanks especially to David Pinto for letting me post on his blog. As baseball fans say during their traditional holidays, next year in Florida!

March 28, 2013

Unified Replacement Level

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FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference have agreed on a single value for replacement level.

As David noted a few minutes ago, this new unified replacement level is now set at 1,000 WAR per 2,430 Major League games, which is the number of wins available in a 162 game season played by 30 teams. Or, an easier way to put it is that our new replacement level is now equal to a .294 winning percentage, which works out to 47.7 wins over a full season. Conveniently, this number is almost exactly halfway in between our previous replacement level (.265) and Baseball-Reference’s previous replacement level (.320), though the number wasn’t chosen solely as an equal compromise.

I like that number, because many years ago another calculation put the lower bound on wins for a major league team at 48. This agreement on a baseline should get rid of the big career discrepancies between the two systems. With a lower replacement level, players with long careers will build up more WAR.

Good job all!

March 28, 2013

Swansong for McCarver

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Tim McCarver will retire from broadcasting at the end of the season. I know a lot of people don’t like Tim’s broadcasts. I often found that he beat a dead horse. I did have dinner with Tim once, along with John Dewan and Don Zminda of STATS, Inc. Tim is a great story teller, and it was nice of him to go out of his way to meet with the new statistics supplier Fox had just purchased. McCarver also strikes me as a well-read, intelligent man. It’s nice to have that in the booth once in a while. Congratulations to Tim on a great career, but I do look forward to Fox bringing in a new team. I hope they do a revamp, a la Sunday Night Baseball.

March 28, 2013

All’s Wainwright

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Adam Wainwright cashes in with the Cardinals:

The St. Louis Cardinals have agreed with ace pitcher Adam Wainwright on a five-year contract extension worth $97.5 million, according to multiple reports.

Wainwright was set to become a free agent after this season when he will make $12 million under a team option. The right-hander’s new deal will begin in 2014, according to multiple media outlets.

Wainwright’s K/BB/HR numbers in 2012 were very similar to his excellent years before his injury, but his ERA was over a run higher. He pitched about an inning less per start, which makes me believe he fatigued faster. With a full season under his belt, the Cardinals likely expect him to make a return to his 2009-2010 form. With Chris Carpenter gone, St. Louis probably wanted to lock up a long-term ace as well.

March 28, 2013

Pledge Drive Update

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Twenty seven people donated a total of $1067 dollars over the first twenty seven days of the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. With four days left, won’t you join them?

Since 2005, I’ve asked for readers to support the site with a donation. Since I’ve needed to scale back my work here due to taking a full time job, I thought that scaling back the pledge drive would be appropriate. The main cost of running the site is the data for the Day by Day Database. If you are a user of that tool, please consider an update to help defray the cost.

Larger donations earn you a premium. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Peter Gammons and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink.

Donations can be made via PayPal. Unfortunately, other donations providers have gone out of business or charge too much money in fees. If you refuse to use Pay Pal but still wish to donate, please contact me and I’ll provide an address for a check. My email is pinto@baseballmusings.com.





Thank you for your help!

March 27, 2013

Deal Gone Bad

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The Mayor of Miami has some harsh words for the Marlins Stadium deal:

With just two weeks until opening day, the Miami Marlins are making headlines again, this time in Sports Illustrated.

The magazine is profiling the ballpark deal that is being compared to “rape.” The comparison was made by Miami’s Mayor.

To go off topic for a minute, I’ve been seeing a lot of rape metaphors lately. When an extremely strong word gets used to much, it loses value. The citizens of Miami were not raped. Their elected representatives made a very bad deal. The mayor was not one of those, and he’s scoring points now. But no one forced the citizens of Miami to do anything. They got exactly what they voted for.