April 13, 2014

Freeman and .400

Freddie Freeman went 2 for 3 Sunday afternoon with a hit by pitch as the Braves swept the Nationals with a 10-2 win. Freeman doubled and homered, giving him a .442/.519/.814 slash line for the season. This is Freeman’s age 24 season, so he should still be improving as a player.

Freeman improved his BABIP to .371 in 2013, after posting a decent .315 BABIP in his first three seasons. This year, his BABIP is up to .417.

BABIP gives us a clue to the potential batting average of a player. The statistic does not include strikeouts and home runs, so to post a batting average equal to your BABIP, a player needs to balance his strikeouts and home runs. Every strike out costs a player BABIP hits. So if a player owns a .333 BABIP, he loses a hit for every three strikeouts. He can get that hit back with a home run. The .333 BABIP player would need to hit a home run for every three strikeouts to have a batting average in line with his BABIP. For someone with a .400 BABIP, he needs to hit two home runs for every five strikeouts.

Freeman struck out just four times in 52 at bats this season, and he’s hit four home runs. With that 1 to 1 ratio of strikeouts and homers, Freeman’s batting average is better than his BABIP! So far this season he cut down on his K’s without losing his power. That is a great formula for hitting .400. In 1941, Ted Williams hit 37 home runs, more than balancing his 27 strikeouts. That was able to transform a .378 BABIP into a .406 BA.

So Freeman’s lack of strikeouts should excite us. A 40 K, 40 HR season with a high BABIP would put Freeman in contention for the coveted mark. We’ll see.

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