April 20, 2014

Freddie Freeman .400

Freddie Freeman had another big night as the Braves beat the Mets 7-5 on Saturday. His box score line lacked zeros as he went 3 for 4 with a double, run, RBI, walk and strikeout. The three hits raised his batting average to .413 for the season. Given that he is both hitting for power and not striking out much, he may be improving as a hitter to an extent that makes a run at a very high batting average possible.

In the past, I have used Excel to calculate the data, then publish graphs. The people at Google, however, recently improved their spreadsheets to include a working binomial distribution function. So I can now share with you the sheet and the graph! I’ll update this daily until the probability goes so low it’s not possible for him to hit .400.

I’ll note that it is low already, given Freeman’s low intrinsic batting average. In the past, I’ve used the player’s career average through the previous season for that parameter, but given Freeman’s young age and improving skill, I went with his Marcel projection. Instead of .285 (career average through 2013), I’m using .295.

Of course, anything can happen in 100 PA, so I don’t really expect Freeman to finish that high. This exercise is more to prove the concept of publishing these sheets. If someone else make a run at this milestone, I can put up more sheets and charts easily.

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