Jose Abreu hit a two-run homer Saturday afternoon to help the White Sox to a 6-2 win over the Indians. His 29th home run of the season came in Jose’s 81st game played, giving him the equivalent of half a season. His strength so far has been hitting for power, with a .287/.338/.631 slash line. Had this come at same time as the White Sox 81st game, Abreu would be in a good position to make a run at Roger Maris’s AL single season home run record.

You can see a chart of his odds of at least tying the record and at least break the record here. The injury really knocked down his chances, but despite the 14 games missed, he still leads the AL in homers. He’ll need a great second half to catch Maris, but with the power he showed so far, the 1 in a million chance he has right now may be too low. Those odds assume his PA per game will be constant throughout the season, but if he played every game, he’ll get more than the predicted PA in that chart. He’ll need a 15 home run month at some point to catch up.