July 27, 2014

Selective Speed

Jose Bautista steals a base in the top of the ninth inning, and Dioner Navarro singles him home. That gave the Blue Jays a 5-4 lead over the Yankees, and they go on to win the game by that score. Bautista does not run often, but he runs well. For his career, he stole 49 bases in 70 attempts, a 70% rate. He’s 5 for six this season, and 39 for 51 with Toronto.

The Blue Jays win two of three from the Yankees to move into second place in the AL East and claim the lead for the second wild card slot in the AL. Having lost 17 in a row at Yankee Stadium, this was a huge series win for Toronto.

2 thoughts on “Selective Speed

  1. Tim

    David, I thought the break-even success rate for steals was 75%, and anything less actually hurt the offense… which would make Bautista a less-than-stellar base-stealer?

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  2. David Pinto Post author

    Tim » It depends on the level of scoring. When the majors were near 10 runs a game, 75% was break even. Right now, I think it’s closer to 67%.

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