Alex Gordon gets ranked very high by fWAR this season, causing some people to wonder if there’s something wrong with WAR.
Love Alex Gordon as a player. A legitimate star. The idea that he's the best player in baseball this year is absurd: http://t.co/Q6Vx9l2L00
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) August 18, 2014
Dave Cameron addresses those issues here. In this case, WAR is highlighting the under-appreciated aspects of Gordon’s season. If you look at his his slash line, you might not think MVP. The whole idea behind these single number values is to point out players that would otherwise fall off the radar. That was the whole point of Moneyball, after all, finding value where others didn’t see it. If fWAR accomplishes that in this case, the stat is performing admirably.
Until WAR corrects position bias and regresses SSS defensive stats (1 yr) by 50% its not to be taken seriously except if used with the understanding its accuracy is only +/- 50%
The 50% for comparisons crossing positions, say 20% for players compared at same position
I don’t get why regressing the WAR would correct a problem. If we were talking about a *prediction*, then yes, of course. But we’re trying to look at Gordon’s actual value this year; what would be the meaning of regressing his measured performance to his career mean?
I agree with David that this is a case *for* using WAR, not a case against it. It never occurred to me that Alex Gordon was a contender for MVP this year, and now I’m convinced he is.
Also, I was just stunned to see Dustin Pedroia on the top thirty. Dustin’s batting stats are abysmal but his base running and defense are keeping him valuable — he’s far and away the Red Sox MVP.
The Donaldson/Trout WAR race is the one that has me scratching my head–I simply am not buying the idea that Donaldson is *that* much more valuable defensively, to the point where he’s ahead of Trout in WAR in spite of Trout’s 40+ point edge in adjusted OPS+ *and* superior baserunning ability.