Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.333 — Jose Altuve batting against Mike Leake.
0.304 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Mike Leake.
0.301 — Miguel Andujar batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.295 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Andriese.
0.293 — Matt M Duffy batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.293 — Wilson Ramos batting against Steven Matz.
0.291 — Corey Dickerson batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.291 — Tyler White batting against Mike Leake.
0.290 — Javier Baez batting against Matt Andriese.
0.289 — Joey Wendle batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.288 — Mallex Smith batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.288 — Whit Merrifield batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.287 — Alex Bregman batting against Mike Leake.
0.285 — Albert Almora batting against Matt Andriese.
0.284 — David Peralta batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.282 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.281 — Eddie Rosario batting against Daniel Norris.
0.278 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Liam Hendriks.
0.276 — Starling Marte batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.276 — Ben Zobrist batting against Matt Andriese.
0.276 — Anthony Kemp batting against Mike Leake.
0.275 — Raul Mondesi batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.274 — George Springer batting against Mike Leake.
0.273 — Adam Frazier batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.273 — Scooter Gennett batting against Chase Anderson.
0.272 — Freddie Freeman batting against Austin Gomber.
0.272 — Nick Markakis batting against Austin Gomber.
Note that Eddie Rosario left Monday night’s game with a quad injury, so he many be available. It looks like a good day for the Astros and the Rays.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.333, 0.757 — Jose Altuve batting against Mike Leake.
0.295, 0.727 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Andriese.
0.301, 0.726 — Miguel Andujar batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.293, 0.724 — Wilson Ramos batting against Steven Matz.
0.304, 0.716 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Mike Leake.
0.271, 0.712 — Jean Segura batting against Joshua James.
0.273, 0.711 — Scooter Gennett batting against Chase Anderson.
0.288, 0.710 — Whit Merrifield batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.290, 0.710 — Javier Baez batting against Matt Andriese.
0.269, 0.710 — J.D. Martinez batting against J.A. Happ.
0.291, 0.710 — Corey Dickerson batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.281, 0.709 — Eddie Rosario batting against Daniel Norris.
0.269, 0.708 — Jose Martinez batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.293, 0.707 — Matt M Duffy batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.285, 0.707 — Albert Almora batting against Matt Andriese.
0.282, 0.704 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.289, 0.703 — Joey Wendle batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.284, 0.703 — David Peralta batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.288, 0.698 — Mallex Smith batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.270, 0.697 — Christian Yelich batting against Michael Lorenzen.
0.278, 0.697 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Liam Hendriks.
0.267, 0.696 — Justin Turner batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.272, 0.694 — Freddie Freeman batting against Austin Gomber.
0.260, 0.693 — Mookie Betts batting against J.A. Happ.
0.260, 0.692 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.276, 0.692 — Starling Marte batting against Eric Skoglund.
Altuve is the unanimous first choice, with Daniel Murphy and Miguel Andujar tied for consensus second choice. The Red Sox game at the Yankees is threatened by rain.
Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!