With a week to go before opening night, it’s time to start looking at the division races. I like to examine the core of the team; the eight or nine batters, the five starters and the closer. In the past I’ve used the previous season’s win shares, but this year I’m going to try value wins or WAR. The AL West gets the first treatment.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

• Position player WAR: 14.4
• Starters WAR: 14.0
• Closer WAR: 2.5
• Total WAR: 30.9

The Angels offer a nice balance between position players and pitching. They haven’t changed too much from their 2008 team. Bobby Abreu comes in as an outfielder/DH, and Brian Fuentes moves from the mountains to near sea level as the closer. Kendry Morales takes over at first base for the departed Mark Teixeira, and Kendry may be the player than delivers way over his 2008 0.3 WAR. He posted very first baseman like numbers in the minors, but not so far in the majors. The Angels failed to produce a power-hitting first baseman in the last few years. At seasonal age 26, Morales is coming into the position in his prime, which should improve his numbers as well. Juan Rivera and Vlad Guerrero underperformed last year as well, so they may bring in a more wins this year. Guerrero, however, is older than we thought, so he’s further along in his decline.

The starting pitching stands as the biggest question mark right now on the team. I’ve included Lackey, Santana and Escobar in the starting five, even though the three are unlikely to land on the opening day roster. If Lackey and Santana spend more time on the DL than expected, look for a lower number of wins from the starters. Escobar comes in with a big zero from 2008, so if he pitches at all he should boost the win total of the team. There’s a lot to like about this rotation.

In general, there’s not a lot of negatives on this team, so I see the 30.0 WAR as a floor, not a ceiling. The Angels are in very good shape for repeating as AL West champions.

Oakland Athletics

• Position player WAR: 22.4
• Starters WAR: 3.8
• Closer WAR: 0.8
• Total WAR: 27.0

Based on 2008 WAR, the Oakland position players projects to be the best in the division this year by over five wins. Matt Holliday posted the highest value wins of any of the projected starters in the division, 6.0. The Athletics look to be the strongest in the division at shortstop, leftfield and designated hitter, all positions at which they added players. One place they could perform better than expected is at third base, where Eric Chavez posted a 0.1 WAR in 2008. Of course, given his last few seasons, I would not count on it.

The starting staff is full of question marks, especially with Justin Duchscherer going down due to surgery. Much of the staff is young and short of major league experience. Dallas Braden, Gio Gonzalez and Sean Gallagher all posted excellent strikeout and walk numbers in the minors, and Josh Outman joins them in their ability to K batters, although he is a bit more wild. If two of them pitch well and Duke doesn’t miss much of the season, I can easily see the starters adding four or five wins to that WAR, putting the core of the team well above 30 value wins. Brad Ziegler gets to spend a full year in the majors, which should raise his value somewhat as well.

As Bill James likes to say, however, young pitchers will break your heart. This rotation has a chance to be something special, but they need to prove it.

Texas Rangers

• Position player WAR: 17.2
• Starters WAR: 6.8
• Closer WAR: 1.5
• Total WAR: 25.5

The Rangers look to post the second best value among position players in the division, with Ian Kinsler and Josh Hamilton accounting for 8.6 of their 17.2 value wins. Like the Angels Kendry Morales, Chris Davis looks to get his first full season at first base, and he also posted great offensive numbers in the minor leagues. Unlike Morales, however, Davis is still young so he’s likely to improve over the next few years. The other big change is Elvis Andrus taking over at short. He’s actually posted decent OBAs in the minors, but his big contribution will come with the glove. So with Davis at first and Andrus at short, the Rangers have a chance to exceed their 17.4 prediction, since there isn’t a lot of downside for their offense.

The starting rotation, like the Athletics, has some question marks. Bradon McCarthy is a good example of how a pitcher can post fantastic minor league numbers then struggle in the majors. If he can get back to his minor league groove, he could turn out to be the ace of the lineup. If the injuries continue, he’ll probably repeat his 0.2 value wins from 2008. The other interesting pitcher in the rotation is Matt Harrison. He’s shown great control in the minors and does a good job of keeping the ball in the park, something that should come in handy in Arlington. If Harrison and McCarthy can add three or four value wins to the rotation, the Rangers should be closer to Oakland and LAnaheim that people think.

Seattle Mariners

• Position player WAR: 13.3
• Starters WAR: 8.5
• Closer WAR: 0.6
• Total WAR: 22.4

The good news is that the Mariners don’t have a lot of downside in those numbers. For example, Ken Griffey, Jr. posted 0.2 value wins in 2008, which included a -13.4 for his fielding. As a designated hitter, he doesn’t hurt the team in the field. Wladimir Balentien just needs to flip the sign on his -1.2 value wins from 2008 to bring the position players ahead of the Angels.

The Mariners replaced Raul Ibanez with Franklin Gutierrez, a younger player with the same 2.3 value wins in 2008. He’s on the upside of his career, however, while Ibanez should be fading.

Among the pitchers, Erik Bedard is capable of more than his 1.1 WAR of 2008, having posted five in his previous two seasons. Felix Hernandez might just put everything together in his age 23 season. I wouldn’t count on Silva much, but but at +1.5 he doesn’t have too far too fall.

I like this team to be as much of a surprise as they were in 2007.

Prediction

Here’s how I see the four teams finishing, with my chance of their winning the division:

1. Angels, 40%
2. Athletics, 35%
3. Rangers, 15%
4. Mariners, 10%

If Beane still has that good eye for starting pitching, the Athletics and Angels should put on a tight battle for the AL West. I still have little confidence in the Rangers pitchers, but I’m looking forward to finding out if Nolan Ryan and Mike Maddux can make a difference. Fans in the northwest have reason to be optimistic as well. The Mariners aren’t likely to win the division, but I suspect they’ll be a much better team than in 2008. There’s a good chance either the Rangers or the Mariners make this an exciting three team division.

Thanks to FanGraphs for the Win Values and CBS Sports for the depth charts.

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