The division preview series continues with what maybe the strongest division in baseball, the American League East. I’m rating the core of the team, the eight position players and designated hitter, five starters and closer by value wins or WAR.
Tampa Bay Rays
- Position player WAR: 28.2
- Starters WAR: 12.5
- Closer WAR: -0.7
- Total WAR: 40.0
Evan Longoria would like to repeat as the Rays most productive position player. Photo: Icon SMI
The Rays return a very strong team for 2009. They excel at four of the five infield positions, and are great in centerfield once B.J. Upton returns from his injuries. I like the addition of Pat Burrell to the offense. He posted 3.2 value wins in 2008, and that’s with a downward adjustment for fielding. Since he doesn’t need to catch the ball, he won’t lose much of his offensive value.
Upton and Longoria are still in the improvement stage of their careers, so the top two hitters in terms of WAR on the team might put up even better numbers in 2009, especially if Upton’s repaired shoulder allows him to hit for power. If I had to pick a player to regress, it would be Dioner Navarro. He finally lived up to expectations in 2008, but until he repeats that kind of season, that’s a chance that it was just an outlier.
There’s some upside for the pitchers as well. Scott Kazmir is still listed as the ace, even though he posted the fourth highest WAR of the rotation. Healthy this season, he might pass James Shields’s 4.2 value wins of 2008. Troy Percival came in at -0.7, so either Troy or Isringhausen has a chance to at least flip the sign. At some point, David Price probably takes over at fifth starter and improves that position as well. Without much effort other than normal improvement, I can see Tampa Bay bringing their core WAR up to 44. They are in a good position to compete and repeat.
Boston Red Sox
- Position player WAR: 29.2
- Starters WAR: 15.6
- Closer WAR: 3.0
- Total WAR: 47.8
Dustin Pedroia won the AL MVP in 2008. Photo: Icon SMI
The Boston Red Sox start their first full season without Manny Ramirez, but still remained loaded with talent. The right side of their infield may be the most productive in baseball, with Youkilis and Pedoria combining for 12.1 value wins in 2008. There are chances for improvement as Julio Lugo may give way to Jed Lowrie at short, and a healthy David Ortiz might up his 2.0 WAR from 2008.
However, the Red Sox also show some age on offense. Varitek, Lowell, Drew and Ortiz might continue a downward trend. It will be fun to see how Jason Bay performs given a full season with the Red Sox. With better hitters around him, and a better organization encouraging him, I could see Bay posting a career year.
On the pitching side, the Red Sox are just as stacked. Beckett and Lester are an excellent 1-2 punch, and if Matsuzaka can gain some control he’ll be right with them. Tim Wakefield will continue to eat innings, and it’s quite possible that either Brad Penny or Clay Buchholz emerges as a fourth ace. I haven’t seen many closers so far with a WAR of 1.0 or higher, but Papelbon came in at 3.0 last season, the second highest score in the division for a ninth inning specialist.
The Red Sox come into the season in better shape than the Rays, but Tampa Bay looks like they have more upside, and the Red Sox more downside.
New York Yankees
- Position player WAR: 26.6
- Starters WAR: 23.1
- Closer WAR: 3.1
- Total WAR: 52.8
CC Sabathia led the Brewers to the post season in 2008. Photo: Icon SMI
The Yankees return Posada, Matsui and Cano with value wins under 1.0. Brett Gardner is unlikely to improve much on Melky Cabrera’s 0.1 WAR. Yet the Yankees look like they are going to blow the division out of the water.
Their position players rank third in the AL East, but the 26.6 level is likely an underestimate of their offensive and defensive core. Full seasons from Posada and Matsui boost their 0.8 value wins, and if Cano just reverts to his mean, the Yankees will add three wins there. Those three are likely to make up for any downside on the part of Jeter, Damon and Nady.
Be on the lookout for a Nancy Kerrigan like recovery for Alex Rodriguez. Back in 1994, skater Kerrigan was whacked in the knee by the boyfriend of her rival skater, Tonya Harding. Kerrigan was force to rehabilitate her knee to get ready for the Olympics, and the therapy made her stronger, leading to the best performance of her life. A-Rod is going through that kind of training right now, possibly increasing his strength beyond what a normal spring training would bring. I could imagine him coming back and posting six months worth of number in five. (Of course, he’ll complain about Jeter’s makeup and everyone will hate him again.)
The Yankees real strength comes on the mound. CC Sabathia takes over as the ace of the rotation with consecutive seasons of 7+ value wins. A.J. Burnett’s 5.7 WAR in 2008 was better than both Beckett and Lester. Wang produced the lowest WAR of these five starters in 2008, and he still managed a 2.0 in half a season. Joba Chamberlain still has upside. Their impressive 23.1 WAR may very well be a conservative estimate! Add to that Rivera’s 3.1 value wins, and the core of their pitching staff is over seven wins better than any other team in the AL East. Without any help from the bench, New York is looking at a season with their wins in the high 90s. That’s the floor, not the ceiling.
The Yankees are going to be tough to beat unless everything goes wrong for them.
Toronto Blue Jays
- Position player WAR: 16.1
- Starters WAR: 12.2
- Closer WAR: 1.0
- Total WAR: 29.3
Roy Halladay should be one of the bright spots for the Blue Jays in 2009. Photo: Icon SMI
The Blue Jays are treading water. They lose a great pitcher in Burnett, and now the carry three rookies in the rotation. Their main source for offensive improvement lies in Vernon Wells staying healthy and another young player, Travis Snider, coming into his own. It really seems like Toronto looked at the falling Canadian dollar, and the three stacked teams in front of them in the American League East and decided this wasn’t the year to compete.
They still have Roy Halladay, however, and two of the three rookies, Purcey and Mills bring impressive minor league strikeout numbers with them. Depending on rookie pitchers, however, is always an iffy proposition. The Blue Jays do have some upside, they are likely to have the curvature of the earth between them and Tampa Bay, Boston and New York by August.
Baltimore Orioles
- Position player WAR: 24.2
- Starters WAR: 4.4
- Closer WAR: 0.4
- Total WAR: 29.0
Nick Markakis is likley to be the most productive Orioles player in 200.
The Orioles position players aren’t that far behind the big three in the division. A sudden maturation by Felix Pie and Adam Jones could put them on par with the other three. Nick Markakis is as productive as the best players in the division, while Aubrey Huff and Brian Roberts both posted excellent 2008 seasons. There’s nothing really wrong with the Baltimore offense.
The problem is that the pitching staff allows a ton of runs, giving the offense a difficult problem every game. After Jeremy Guthrie, the starters are just bad or unknowns. Koji Uehara comes over from Japan with great control, but we’ve seen that doesn’t always translate to success in the US. Adam Eaton, one of the worst pitchers in the majors over the last two years, pulls down the third spot in the rotation, and it gets worse from there. The Orioles offense is going to need to be a lot better than they project to win with this staff. Still, they may be good enough to finish ahead of the Blue Jays.
Prediction
Here’s how I see the five teams finishing, with my chance of their winning the division:
- Yankees, 32%
- Red Sox, 30%
- Rays, 28%
- Blue Jays, 6%
- Orioles, 4%
Opponents hope Evan hits more like his namesake, Eva. Photo: Icon SMI
This should be a fantastic three team race, with two of these three teams going to the playoffs. They are not only the class of the division, they’re the class of the league. Maybe we can finally get a three-way tie, fitting for this trio of stacked teams.
Thanks to FanGraphs for the Win Values and CBS Sports for the depth charts.
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Posted by David Pinto at 9:10 pm | Predictions, Team Evaluation | Permalink | 20 Comments
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March 31st, 2009 @ 11:41 pm
Hey David, I see that the Yankees are stacked. But you only talked about their rotation upside. Yes, they have 5 very good starters but all of them come with question marks and there is no depth behind.
Sabathia has been abused, Burnett is always hurt, Joba has the innings cap and Pettite finished last year in not very good shape. If any of them goes down it is up to hughes and a bunch of nobodies to step up.
March 31st, 2009 @ 11:57 pm
I’d take this more seriously if you hadn’t predicted the Yankees to come in first in 2008, the Jays to come in 3rd, and the Rays to come in 4th. But hey, at least you pegged Boston and the O’s correctly.
April 1st, 2009 @ 12:07 am
“Youkilis and Pedoria combing for 12.1 value wins” is a pretty funny typo, given that neither of them has enough hair on his head to need a comb.
April 1st, 2009 @ 12:43 am
A bit rosy on the Yankees me thinks. A-Rod is hurt and might not be 100% when he does come back given he will require surgery after the season , and I do not think A-Rod dares get supplemental help with that target on his back. From what I saw at the WBC, Jeters defense is declining-rapidly, and thats not too good for the pitching staff, especially Wang.
Matsui, Damon and Posada all are facing decline and age/health issues. Mariano is 1 year older and at 39 it is just a matter of time before “pop goes the elbow”. The rotation looks great, if it stays healthy, and if the 2000 ring curse does not hit their FA SP acquisitions. CC might find the AL East bit rougher than the NL/AL Central.
All of their starting pitchers have been injured in the past 2 years, and even CC after his abuse last year is at risk. Not much depth at starting pitching, and the payroll is so high filling a hole in mid season might be a problem.
That said, they look to be competitive at worst, real tough if healthy, and as someone who enjoys the Red Sox – Yankee rivalry, I am thankful for that.
As for the Red Sox, they have as question marks only Papi, Lowell and Drew, mainly due to health. Teks not expected to contribute much offensively, thats already a given. Unlike the Yankees, the Red Sox are well positioned to fill any holes in mid season, having plenty of payroll flexibility and assets to trade.
I would not be surprised to see Bay moved at mid-season when we start missing Manny’s defense. LOL. Chris Carter opened up some eyes this spring.
April 1st, 2009 @ 8:14 am
[...] Baseball Musings provides their annual AL East preview, giving the Rays a 28% chance of winning the division. [Baseball Musings] [...]
April 1st, 2009 @ 10:27 am
If the Yanks’ five starters pitched to the 8th inning every game and never missed a start all season, your projection would be right.
But the bullpen typically pitches about 500 innings per year, of which Mariano may cover 75. That leaves 425 innings, 30% of the season, in the hands of the rest of the staff. And of course that number will be much higher than that, because the five starters are rather fragile. The six pitchers you evaluate will pitch no more than 60% of the Yanks’ innings, most likely. The other 40% is where they don’t match up with either TB, or particularly with the Red Sox who have remarkable pitching depth.
April 1st, 2009 @ 10:49 am
Gregg, you are way off base here. Did you follow baseball in 2008? The Yankees bullpen was one of the best in the game, even after Joba’s switch to the rotation. In fact, I’m pretty sure the bullpen ERA went DOWN after Joba switched to the rotation. The Yankees bullpen is stacked with young talent equal to, if not better than the Sox and Rays bullpen.
April 1st, 2009 @ 10:55 am
Corey, I basically agree, but I’d add that bullpen performance is highly unpredictable. The Bombers’ pen does look very good right now (the fact that they had no room for Tomko speaks volumes), but remember how good Boston’s looked before Okajima exploded last year? The key thing to remember is: if a pitcher is both good and consistent, it’s very unlikely that he should be in the bullpen. (Rivera is an obvious exception, and sure, there are other exceptions.) So, a good reliever is unlikely to be consistent.
April 1st, 2009 @ 11:04 am
“If the Yanks’ five starters pitched to the 8th inning every game and never missed a start all season, your projection would be right.
But the bullpen typically pitches about 500 innings per year, of which Mariano may cover 75. That leaves 425 innings, 30% of the season, in the hands of the rest of the staff. And of course that number will be much higher than that, because the five starters are rather fragile. The six pitchers you evaluate will pitch no more than 60% of the Yanks’ innings, most likely. The other 40% is where they don’t match up with either TB, or particularly with the Red Sox who have remarkable pitching depth.”
I understand you are a RS fanboy, but try to be rational. The RS pitching is nowhere near the poster-boy of good health, so to say that the projections will ONLY come to fruition if NYY’s staff stays healthy, while ASSuME-ing that boston’s will stay healthy is just wishful thinking.
Pinto may be on to something with Alex’s rehab. It will force him to strengthen his core even more than he did before ST. yes, he could have atrophized(word?) but it is doubtful given his diet and health. The core is where the bat strength comes from as we all know.
The starters WILL take appearances away from the bullpen. So, your math is a bit of base. but it is okay. our bullpen was second or third in appearances and was 3rd in ERA. probably behind CHW and another club. I do have love for New York’s bullpen
April 1st, 2009 @ 11:18 am
James-
I couldn’t agree more, bullpen is by far the most unpredictable aspect of baseball, in my opinion. Depth helps steady that shakiness, and, despite what some commentators think, the Yankees have the depth to matches the Sox, Rays and Jays. They may not have a bunch of former closers coming off shoulder injury/surgery, but they have tons of young guys who can likely help set up the greatest closer in the game.
April 1st, 2009 @ 11:20 am
Hi Cory,
Well, the Yanks’ bullpen isn’t bad, but in 2008, if you back out the 100 innings pitched in relief by Joba and Mariano, you get an ERA of 4.29 in 2008. Not horrible, but nothing very impressive.
I do agree with you that bullpen performance is highly unpredictable. But it can’t be discounted.
My point was that group doesn’t stack up, to either TB or BOS, who has definitely strengthened middle relief considerably.
On top of that, the Yankees are weak in #6 and #7 starters, who almost always capture a lot of innings as the season wears on. For Boston and Tampa Bay, the #6 and #7 starters are guys like David Price, Smoltz and Buchholz, and Masterson.
The Yanks’ top five are better. Rivera is marginally better than Papelbon. But those guys make up only 60% of a pitching staff, measured by innings — and it is that other 40% that the Yankees fall short.
April 1st, 2009 @ 11:34 am
Gregg,
I’m sorry but your argument is, again, way off base here. First off, you can’t just eliminate the innings of Mariano Rivera, if I did the same thing with Pap’s innings and ER, you get an ERA of 4.28, essentially identical.
Also, you can’t say that Bucholz and Masterson are better options than Hughes, Kennedy, or even Kei Igawa! None of these guys have proven themselves at the MLB level. No one can say one of these guys is a better replacement in the rotation, because they have, so far, all equally stunk.
April 1st, 2009 @ 11:48 am
Sturnzor, I couldn’t agree more that Boston’s starters are fragile too. I didn’t say they weren’t. What I said was that when the top five go down, and some of them will, the Sox have much more impressive #6, #7, #8 starters in back of them. These guys are going to throw a lot of innings, for both clubs.
April 1st, 2009 @ 12:02 pm
Cory, I agree, last year Boston’s bullpen was very similar to the Yank’s. But the bullpen in 2009 has been significantly strengthened.
And I agree that you can group Buchholz and Hughes and Kennedy as guys with high potential and mediocre overall performance so far.
But Masterson? How can you put him in that group? The guy had 36 relief appearances last year, with a 2.36 ERA. In the post-season, 9 more games with a 1.86 ERA. Masterson’s stats in the bullpen last year are almost exactly the equal of Joba’s — actually, much better if you include the post-season. But Masterson remains in the Sox bullpen, while Chamberlain has been pulled out.
April 1st, 2009 @ 12:12 pm
Ok, I may have been off base with Masterson. Yes he was great in the bullpen, but you were talking about starter options, and bullpen success DOES NOT always translate to rotation success. And yes, Masterson showed some promise in the rotation as well, but his sample size is far too small to say he is a better option as a 6th or 7th starter than what the Yankees have. Also, Masterson’s minor league numbers, as a starter, are not anything to be excited about at all!
April 1st, 2009 @ 12:23 pm
Also, back to the bullpen argument, looking at 2008 stats, the yankees bullpen had a 82% save percentage, while Boston’s was 68%. I think the save rule is flawed, and this doesn’t show the whole picture of how each bullpens did, but 22 blown saves is a whole lot of lost wins, thanks to the bullpen.
April 1st, 2009 @ 1:32 pm
Cory, I never said that the Yankee bullpen in 2008 wasn’t as good as Boston’s. The Yanks were a little better in 2008. I’ve been talking about 2009, which is a different group of people. Boston’s pen looks a lot stronger than 2008; the Yanks’ pen, to me, looks weaker with Joba out of the mix. But time will tell…
There is no question, that overall, the Yankees are the far more improved ball club over 2008. My original comments were simply meant to point out that it isn’t entirely valid to judge pitching on six players when those six only account for 60% of the innings. It would be like evaluating a team’s offense without taking into account the outfielders.
April 1st, 2009 @ 2:18 pm
You undervaluing the Yankees bullpen. Without Joba last year their ERA was 3.83, barely worse than 3.73. So the bullpen didn’t get worse without Joba, unlike what some would like you to believe. Also the yankees bullpen did get better this year, with the return of Bruney, and now with a full season of Marte on the team.
Either way you cut it, 4 of the 5 teams in the AL east have the best bullpens in all of baseball, so this shouldn’t really factor into Dave’s analysis. This should be an exciting season….
April 1st, 2009 @ 9:15 pm
[...] David Pinto over at Baseball Musings previews the AL East. He thinks the Yankees have a 32% chance of winning the division. He says the Sox have a 30% [...]
April 2nd, 2009 @ 7:03 pm
[...] Baseball Musings uses some statistical analysis from FanGraphs to preview the AL East, and comes away predicting that the Yankees should win the division. [...]