The division preview series continues with the American League Central. I’m rating the core of the team, the eight position players and designated hitter, five starters and closer by value wins or WAR.

Chicago White Sox

• Position player WAR: 12.9
• Starters WAR: 15.1
• Closer WAR: 1.3
• Total WAR: 29.3

The White Sox come into the season with the best core pitching WAR in the division. Buehrle and Danks combine to look like the best 1-2 punch in the Central, although in the CBS Sports depth chart, Floyd is listed as the number two starter. Gavin probably has room to improve on his 2.5 value wins from 2008.

The offense is weak, however. The players who served as the big guns in the past, Konerko, Dye, and Thome appear to have settled down to a WAR somewhere between 2 and 3. It’s the youngsters who will need to improve for the White Sox to repeat as division winners. Getz and Fields should get more playing time to add some positives to the position player total, while Alexei Ramirez tries to improve on his rookie season. We’ll also see if Carlos Quentin can repeat his MVP type numbers and stay healthy for a full year.

This is not a great team, but I’ve seen some projections rate them last in the division. I don’t think they’ll be that bad.

Minnesota Twins

• Position player WAR: 11.0
• Starters WAR: 7.6
• Closer WAR: 2.1
• Total WAR: 20.7

Basing the Twins core on CBS Sports depth chart may be a bit misleading. They list Redmond as the catcher, and given the uncertainty of Joe Mauer’s injury, that’s probably right. We don’t know how much time Joe will miss, but it’s a difference of 5.6 wins.

Likewise on the pitching side, Scott Baker is on the DL and off the depth chart. He’s only supposed to miss two starts, but we’ve seen shoulder stiffness turn into something worse. The difference between Baker and R.A. Dickey is 3.5 wins.

Lastly, the depth chart does not list Dernand Span first at any of the outfield positions. I don’t really understand this. Span should start most of the games as the leadoff hitter. Of the four players who may rotate between the outfield and DH, Span is far better at the moment than Young, Cuddyer and Kubel. If you just substitute Span for Young, that another three wins for the Twins.

So with some health and a probable use of Span, that 20.7 number should really be more like 32.7. Those three players are the difference between the Twins having the best core in the division or the worst core in the division. Obviously, they need to get Mauer and Baker back as soon as possible. The team could not have asked for worse injuries, but that’s the problem playing with a lack of depth.

Cleveland Indians

• Position player WAR: 20.6
• Starters WAR: 9.2
• Closer WAR: 2.2
• Total WAR: 32.0

The Indians look strong even including off years by Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner in those numbers. Bonce backs by those two heavy hitters, Mark DeRosa improving third base and the maturation of Choo should give the Indians the best positional player core in the AL Central for 2009.

They are going to need to be good, however, because the starting pitching is lopsided. Cliff Lee accounts for 7.3 of the 9.2 starters WAR. In other words, the Indians are sending out an iffy pitcher in four out of five games. They are putting a lot of hope on Fausto Carmona returning to his 2007 form and Carl Pavano staying healthy for a season. If the front office is right about Carmona and Pavano, however, they will have likely won the division at a very low cost.

I like Kerry Wood as the closer on this team. Neither of the Rafaels was able to handle the role in 2008, so if they’re more comfortable as setup men, then the Indians might be able to turn contests into six inning games. That would take some pressure off the 2-5 starters in the rotation.

Kansas City Royals

• Position player WAR: 11.6
• Starters WAR: 13.1
• Closer WAR: 1.5
• Total WAR: 26.2

The strength of the Royals comes from two pitchers, Gil Meche and Zack Greinke. They combine for about 1/3 of the Royals core WAR going into 2009. In fact, the starters and closers are second only to the White Sox in the division, despite a back of the rotation that list Kyle Davies, Sidney Ponson and Horacio Ramirez 3-5.

The offense leaves a lot to be desired, and the most positive thing to say about this group is that there is room for improvement. Coco Crisp, playing every day, probably adds a win or two to his 0.7 total from 2008. What the Royals really need, however, is for Butler, Gordon and Teahen to all blossom into 3 to 4 WAR players. If those three can add seven wins to this team, suddenly they’re competitive in the division.

It’s too bad the Royals didn’t follow through on their plan to add more on-base average. This is a very weak division and could easily be won by Kansas City if they were willing to invest in quality hitters.

Detroit Tigers

• Position player WAR: 16.8
• Starters WAR: 7.4
• Closer WAR: 0.7
• Total WAR: 24.9

None of the 15 core players for the Tigers posted a WAR of four or better in 2008. That would lead me to expect that Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez and Curtis Granderson are looking at a positive regression to the mean in 2009. It’s not difficult to believe those four might add eight wins just by bouncing back.

There’s also a chance that Ordonez and Guillen are looking at the start of their career declines. Inge and Everett aren’t going to make up much offense, they’re in the lineup to try to help the pitchers. I suspect most of the improvement in the Detroit offense will come from Cabrera and Granderson returning to their monster forms.

The rotation, which was the envy of baseball three seasons ago, lies in tatters. Edwin Jackson, who was never more than a fifth starter for Tampa Bay, slides into the number two hole in Detroit. Dontrelle Willis is out of their plans, trying to overcome an anxiety disorder. Their closer is on the disabled list. Unlike the offense, there just isn’t a lot of upside. I’m rather pessimistic about this team.

Prediction

Here’s how I see the five teams finishing, with my chance of their winning the division:

1. Indians, 25%
2. White Sox, 24%
3. Royals, 17%
4. Twins, 17%
5. Tigers, 17%

What a lousy division. I have no idea what is going to happen here, so flip a coin and your prediction will be as good as mine. I can see the Twins winning away where from 70 to 90 games depending how the injuries shake out. The Indians have the offense to win, but their pitching staff may be too concentrated in Cliff Lee. The White Sox and Royals offenses don’t impress me at all, and the Tigers are very dependent on a number of players returning to their means.

Anything can happen in the AL Central, mostly because none of these teams is likely to play a very good brand of baseball. They’re all half teams; each owns glaring weaknesses. It would not surprise me to see a sub .500 team win this division.

Thanks to FanGraphs for the Win Values and CBS Sports for the depth charts.

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