I’ve noticed a lot of bases loaded walks this season. My question is, am I seeing something real? The answer is yes. The following table looks at walks as a percentage of bases loaded plate appearances:
| Season | Plate App. | Walks | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 258 | 23 | 8.9 |
| 2000 | 5107 | 397 | 7.8 |
| 2008 | 5090 | 372 | 7.3 |
| 1997 | 4342 | 313 | 7.2 |
| 1999 | 4845 | 346 | 7.1 |
| 1996 | 4687 | 332 | 7.1 |
| 1985 | 3526 | 248 | 7.0 |
| 2007 | 4992 | 351 | 7.0 |
| 1998 | 4640 | 322 | 6.9 |
| 1974 | 3622 | 250 | 6.9 |
| 1995 | 3964 | 270 | 6.8 |
| 2003 | 4793 | 326 | 6.8 |
| 1981 | 2256 | 153 | 6.8 |
| 2004 | 4943 | 329 | 6.7 |
| 1987 | 3638 | 240 | 6.6 |
| 1978 | 3607 | 235 | 6.5 |
| 1986 | 3536 | 230 | 6.5 |
| 1984 | 3469 | 225 | 6.5 |
| 2006 | 4946 | 319 | 6.4 |
| 1976 | 3354 | 216 | 6.4 |
| 1993 | 4239 | 272 | 6.4 |
| 1992 | 3727 | 235 | 6.3 |
| 1994 | 3024 | 190 | 6.3 |
| 1977 | 3572 | 221 | 6.2 |
| 1975 | 3532 | 218 | 6.2 |
| 1979 | 3599 | 219 | 6.1 |
| 1980 | 3373 | 205 | 6.1 |
| 1989 | 3489 | 209 | 6.0 |
| 1988 | 3386 | 198 | 5.8 |
| 2005 | 4635 | 271 | 5.8 |
| 1991 | 3560 | 207 | 5.8 |
| 1983 | 3487 | 202 | 5.8 |
| 1990 | 3719 | 211 | 5.7 |
| 2002 | 4765 | 267 | 5.6 |
| 2001 | 4625 | 255 | 5.5 |
| 1982 | 3497 | 168 | 4.8 |
So pitchers are walking batters with the bases loaded at the highest rate in the last 35 seasons. It’s not even close. It’s worse that than, however. The number of bases loaded plate appearances works out to 5915 over a full season, way above the highest number since the major leagues expanded to 30 teams in 1998. We’re getting more bases loaded situations, and a higher percentage of walks in those situations.
Walks are up overall, pitchers issuing free passes 9.8% of the time, also the high over the last 35 seasons. It’s not as far out of line as the bases loaded situation, however. The average over that time for all PA is 8.7%, for the bases loaded, 6.5%. Pitchers are having trouble finding the plate this season.
Posted by David Pinto at 8:17 am | Statistics | Permalink | 5 Comments
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April 14th, 2009 @ 9:34 am
And I don’t think it can be blamed on the WBC, as 2006 is in the lower half of the range.
April 14th, 2009 @ 10:35 am
To me, it’s just a problem with small sample size. If, for example, you take away that utterly atrocious inning against the Cubs on Sunday, where Suppan and Julio combined to walk in 4 runs in a row, the rate drops down to 7.3% – still high, but no longer the highest of all time.
Things will balance out, I’m sure. It just looks so bad right now because they all seemed to be bunched around the same few days…
April 14th, 2009 @ 10:40 am
What I find interesting is that there’s usually a big drop off from the normal walk rate to the bases loaded walk rate, which is what you expect. Pitchers are going to come over the plate in that situation, since if the batter puts the ball in play you at least have a chance at an out.
April 14th, 2009 @ 12:19 pm
Or it is evidence of umpires calling a tighter strike zone early in the season. I find it hard to believe pitchers wouldn’t want to pitch to contact, given the drop in power numbers lately.
April 14th, 2009 @ 5:49 pm
I assume that the real comparison to make is vs. the first two weeks of any season. I would guess this is either a small sample anomaly or a case where pitchers kind of have trouble finding the plate in the first few starts vs. the rest of the season. No?