Tyler Lakin examines the career and 2009 seasons for Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander in a guest post for Baseball Musings. Enjoy! D.P.

Greinke vs. Verlander: The Tale of Two Aces

Entering June, two of the hottest pitchers in baseball hail from the AL Central. Justin Verlander (6-2), and perhaps more notably Zack Greinke (8-1), are having great years. Verlander got off to a rocky start, but has settled down considerably, notching 7 consecutive starts allowing 3 earned runs or less, including a complete game 2 hitter in Cleveland. Zack Greinke, on the other hand, has been unhittable all season. Sunday, against the White Sox, Greinke had his worst start of the season. Greinke allowed 8 hits and 4 runs (3 earned) over 7 innings, striking out 7 and walking none. You’re having a pretty good year when THAT is your worst start to date. His ERA is now 1.10, with a WHIP of .90. Let’s take a look at both of their careers so far.

The Tigers drafted Justin Verlander with the 2nd overall pick in 2004. Out of Old Dominion, Verlander was MLB ready almost right away. In 2006, Verlander’s first full season, he helped lead the Tigers to the World Series with a 17-9 record, 3.63 ERA, and a 1.32 WHIP. The next year, he looked even sharper going 18-6 with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP, along with better ratios in H/9, HR/9, K/9 and K/BB. It looked like he was going to be a top of the line starter for the rest of his career… then, he hit a brick wall. The flamethrower’s 2008 campaign was a season of confusion. His ERA rose over a full run. His WHIP rose .17 points. All of his ratios worsened, most notably his BB/9 increasing from 3 to 3.9. The pitcher who looked like a sure thing lost 17 games. He was getting hit harder than ever before. Fortunately for the Tigers, and more importantly Verlander, the issues have been resolved, and they have been resolved dramatically. Verlander’s struggles did carry into this season with his first few outings, but over his last 7 starts, his ERA is 1.30, opponents are hitting a paltry .190 against him, and he has 65 strikeouts compared to 11 walks in 48.1 innings.

Zack Greinke is a similar case, although it may be considered to be more serious. The Royals took Greinke with the 6th overall pick of the 2002 draft. Being drafted out of high school, Zack took a bit longer to fully develop than his Verlander. Much of that can be attributed to jumping right to professional baseball out of high school. Despite signing out of high school, the Royals threw him into the show just 2 years later in 2004 – as a 20 year who couldn’t have a bigger deer-in-headlights look. Really, he wasn’t terrible. He wasn’t great, but you can’t expect a future stud to be mowing down hitters right away at 20 years old. However, things started to turn downward for Greinke in 2006. He left spring training for personal reasons, which were later revealed as social anxiety disorder and depression. The baby-faced kid made quite the comeback though, posting ERA’s of 3.69 and 3.47 in his next 2 seasons, and then starting off this season being virtually unhittable.

One can look at these two players and compare them by their level and type of experience. While Verlander spent some time in college, the Royals drafted Greinke straight out of high school. Verlander came out more sharp, but over time, Greinke has caught up to him and potentially surpassed him. They have both faced their fair share of problems, and have proven that talent wins in the end.

More recently, these guys have been on fire. Greinke for the whole season, and Verlander from the end of April to now. Here’s a direct comparison of their stats over their respective “hot” periods.

Greinke: 8-1, 1.10 ERA, .90 WHIP, .210 BAA, 88 K, 12 BB in 11 starts/82 innings

Verlander: 6-0, 1.30 ERA, .93 WHIP, .190 BAA, 65 K, 11 BB in 7 starts/48.1 innings

Greinke and Verlander were both touted as future star pitchers, and they have both faced adversity. In the end though, they have made it through, and they will be great pitchers for years to come.

Tyler Lakin writes at CNB Sports.