The All-Star break affords the opportunity to look back at the first half to see what went right and wrong for the thirty MLB teams. The Chicago Cubs are up next, and here is the pre-season post on the NL Central.
| Statistic | Chicago Cubs | NL Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Runs per Game | 4.13 | 14th |
| Batting Averge | .247 | 14th-T |
| On-Base Average | .322 | 13th |
| Slugging Percentage | .399 | 10th |
| ERA | 3.84 | 4th |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 7.7 | 2nd |
| Walks per 9 ip | 3.88 | 14th |
| HR per 200 IP | 23.5 | 11th |
What Went Right
There’s not a lot of positives to point to in the 2009 season for the Cubs. Ryan Theriot and Kosuke Fukudome improved their power somewhat. Derrke Lee’s home run power returned, but his overall slugging still isn’t what it used to be due to a lack of doubles. His days of 70 extra-base hits in a season appear to be over.
Ted Lilly and Randy Wells are the bright spots for the rotation. Ted’s really gotten control of his walks this year, something important for a pitcher who tends to give up home runs. Wells is showing tremendous control as well, walking less than two batters per nine innings.
The bullpen decision to use Carlos Marmol in the setup role and Kevin Gregg as the closer worked, too. Each has a huge weakness; Marmol walks too many batters and Gregg allows too many home runs. A solo shot with a three run lead can be absorbed by a closer, however. A pitcher who puts extra men on with walks sets himself up for failure.
What Went Wrong
The injury to Aramis Ramirez took away a big power threat from the team, especially with Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto falling flat this season. Losing the power from those three is a big reason the Cubs rank 14th in runs per game this season.
They might have weathered that better if Harden and Dempster held up. Harden did suffer an injury this season, but when he’s been on the roster he’s pitched poorly. For the first time in his career, Harden is getting hammered by home run hitters. Dempster, too was giving up home runs at a higher rate than in 2008. I wonder if there was a wind shift since last season? When I was at STATS, Inc, we found the direction of the wind at Wrigley affected offensive output greatly.
What do the Cubs need? Ramirez is back, and Soto’s poor numbers were due to an injury, so that part of the offense is working it’s way back. They probably can use a starting pitcher if Harden continues to give up gopher balls, or if Dempster doesn’t come back strong. Despite their woes, the team is right in the heart of the division race. I suspect that even if the team does nothing, they’ll play better in the second half as players return to their norms.
Other teams in this series:
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