September 8, 2009

Massive Tie Scenario

In the National League yesterday, the Phillies lost, which helped the massive tie scenario, but the Dodgers won, which didn’t. The Marlins and Braves didn’t play, but Colorado and San Francisco kept pace with wins as well.

The following outcomes result in a six-way NL tie with the highest possible winning percentage.

  • Dodgers 12-11
  • Phillies 17-10
  • Rockies 16-8
  • Giants 18-6
  • Marlins 22-3
  • Braves 24-1

In the American League, the Rays not only lost two to the Yankees Monday, they got spanked doing so. They walked 12 times, but with just nine hits and 23 strikeouts, the team could not push home runs, scoring once in each game. They’ve played 12 straight games against teams currently in playoff positions and lost nine of them. They’re not going to catch the Yankees at this point, so I’m splitting the AL massive tie into two groups.

Here are the outcomes that will lead to a four-way AL East/AL West tie.

  • Yankees 12-11
  • Angels 20-6
  • Red Sox 22-3
  • Rangers 25-1

The above requires the Rangers to go 6-1 against the Angels, and the Red Sox to lose three games to the Angels, while winning every game against every other opponent. If the four way tie happens, it will probably happen at a lower winning percentage.

The second massive tie leaves off the Yankees and results in a tie for the AL West and Wild Card:

  • Angels 15-11
  • Red Sox 17-8
  • Rangers 20-6
  • Rays 24-0

There’s a lot more leeway with this group, as all can finish well over .500 and still tie. The most likely massive tie here would be between the Angels, Red Sox and Rangers. That would require a playoff for the NL West followed by a playoff for the Wild Card.

The outcomes to look for today to improve the odds of a massive tie are:

  • Texas takes two from Cleveand
  • The Yankees lose to the Rays
  • The Phillies fall to the Nationals
  • Boston defeats Baltimore
  • The Marlins down the Mets
  • Atlanta beats Houston
  • The Rockies win over the Reds
  • The Dodgers lose to the Diamondbacks
  • The Angels fall to the Mariners
  • San Francisco wins over San Diego

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