The Yankees host the Twins in one American League Division Series starting Wednesday. The following table shows American League ranks for the teams in various offensive and pitching categories:
| 2009 Seasons (AL Ranks) | Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Runs per game | 5.01 (4th) | 5.65 (1st) |
| Batting Average | .274 (3rd) | .283 (2nd) |
| On Base Percentage | .345 (4th) | .362 (1st) |
| Slugging Percentage | .429 (7th) | .478 (1st) |
| Home Runs | 172 (9th) | 244 (1st) |
| Earned Run Average | 4.50 (11th) | 4.28 (3rd) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 6.5 (10th) | 7.8 (1st) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 2.9 (1st) | 3.6 (11th) |
| HR per 200 IP | 25.5 (11th) | 25.0 (9th) |
The Yankees finished very high in ERA for a team that keeps getting it’s pitching questioned. Their walk and home run rates are very high, which is a good reason to raise those concerns. If one looks more closely at when those walks are issued, 35% of them come with runners in scoring position, which represents just 27% of the plate appearances against them. It seems to me that the Yankees are using the walk as a defensive weapon to avoid big hitters driving in runs. It’s a dangerous strategy, but one that seems to work for them.
I’m not sure how much any of that will matter in this series, however. The Yankees own the best offense in the league, and the Twins rank fairly low in ERA. That combination should lead to high scoring games for New York. The regular season head-to-head stats bear that out as New York hit .300/.380/.490 against Minnesota as they won all seven games against the Twins. On top of that, the Twins had no time to set up their playoff rotation, and are going with a rookie in game won who only made nine starts, and who Ron Gardenhire benched over Carl Pavano in a very important game on Sunday against the Royals.
That said, the Twins staff should take away the walk from the Yankees’ offensive arsenal. However, given the Yankees ability to hit for average and hit for power, they can absorb the loss of the base on balls better than a lot of high powered teams.
Is there any way the Twins can win? They do hit lefties much better than righties, and they’ll see lefty starters in three of the five games. Interestingly, they haven’t been able to turn their ability to hit lefties into wins, as they went 28-32 when the opposition started a LHP against them.
The Yankees simply own a better offense and a better pitching staff. I give New York a 75% chance of winning the series, and that’s probably low.
Update: A commenter questioned by 75% call as being too high, just because no series in the post season is that lopsided. I answered in the comments with this:
For the series, Vegas has the Yankees at -425, the Twins at +325. That works out to an 80.9% chance of the Yankees winning, a 76.5% chance of the Twins losing. So my statement that 75% might be low was correct, at least in the minds of the betting public.
I don’t think anybody has a 75% chance of winning a five-game series against anybody else.
I was surprised that the Twins hit better overall against lefties (102 to 99 tOPS+, though, not a *huge* difference), but I think part of the reason that their record against LHP is bad is that Gardy completely ignores such things; he routinely bats Kubel 4th against lefties even though he can’t hit them, so a lot of Mauer’s work against them is wasted while Delmon Young, who can’t really do anything BUT hit lefties, is still stuck down at 7th or 8th. The guys who do hit lefties better (also Span and Cuddyer) rarely come up against them with guys on base.
I don’t agree with BIll.
To oversimplify, suppose the Yankees have the same prior chance of winning any given game. (Start with the oversimplification, modify from there if you like.) What does that chance have to be, in order for them to have a 75% chance of winning the five-game series? The answer is that it has to be about 64%. This is a high chance, but not ridiculously high. So David’s guess is a reasonable approximation.
To correct the oversimplification you’d have to change the winning chances depending on pitching match-ups and home field. This ought to favor the Yankees *slightly*, since they have their rotation lined up the way they want it and they get home field advantage.
I’d say David’s guess is on the high end of the reasonable range of guesses.
Fair enough, but I guess where we disagree is that I don’t think 64% in any one playoff game is a reasonable guess. The Yankees played .636 ball in 2009, and that’s while getting to play a bunch of games against the Orioles and Jays. There might be a year in which no team in the AL West, say, finishes better than .500, the Red Sox win the Wild Card, and the Yankees win 110; *then* maybe 64% in each game isn’t too high. This isn’t that year.
Right.
Well, start at 60%, add some special problem for the Twins in the first game, and you might get within range of a 75% chance of winning the series. What’s the Vegas line?
Pinnacle has Yankees at -361 for tonight’s game, which translates to 77.1%
@Bill: For the series, Vegas has the Yankees at -425, the Twins at +325. That works out to an 80.9% chance of the Yankees winning, a 76.5% chance of the Twins losing. So my statement that 75% might be low was correct, at least in the minds of the betting public.