Dan Rosenheck offers a superb sabermetric analysis of why Joe Saunders shouldn’t get two starts in a post-season series.
Quantitatively savvy baseball fans are well aware that the win is a flawed statistic, but few hurlers demonstrate its weaknesses better than Saunders. In 2008, his ritzy 3.41 earned run average was built upon the shakiest of foundations: a .267 batting average allowed on balls in play, known as Babip, which is next to impossible for a nonknuckleball pitcher to maintain over a lengthy period of time.
Sure enough, in 2009, his Babip reverted to the league average at .290, and his earned run average spiked to 4.60. But the Angels’ surprisingly powerful offense gave him a whopping 141 runs of support in 186 innings this season, enabling him to rack up a 16-7 record.
The thing I find interesting about Sauders is that he’s been consistently lucky. He was 15-8 in his two season before becoming a full time starter, pitching much like he did in 2009. One reason for that is Saunders is very good at inducing double plays. Over the last two seasons, he’s induced 55, tied for second in the majors. That’s something he has in common with Andy Pettitte, and allows him to allow a high BA and OBP without getting killed.
With Saunder turning around the Yankees switch hitters, some become slow right-handers (Teixeira, Posada, Swisher), just the type he can get to bounce into GDPs. Scioscia’s strategy isn’t that bad. Saunders also limits the Yankees left-handed power.
Posted by David Pinto at 11:45 am | Pitchers | Permalink | 3 Comments
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October 23rd, 2009 @ 12:47 pm
Why do analyses of this sort never look at the fact that Saunders was pitching injured most of the year? His 2009 OPS against was about 100 points higher than his 2008 edition; don’t forget that last year was his first full season in the majors. I don’t want to say he’ll be fine, but there’s more reasons than this writer wants to admit that the Colonel will be in fine form for his second ALCS start, and his Game 2 was not a fluke.
October 23rd, 2009 @ 1:01 pm
I like the term consistently lucky.
question-can and do pitchers pitch to specifically induce double plays?
October 23rd, 2009 @ 1:57 pm
” Saunders also limits the Yankees left-handed power” except Matsui hit lefties very well this year!