November 4, 2009

The Yankees play their second match point as Andy Pettitte hosts the Phillies and Pedro Martinez. Pedro did most things right in game two, striking out eight and walking just two. He did allow two home runs, however, and that proved to be his undoing as the Yankees went on to a 3-1 victory. Note that in Pedro’s two starts this post-season, the Phillies scored one run in each game. A few more runs in each game and the Phillies sweep the Dodgers and would be playing to eliminate the Yankees tonight. Home runs were a bit of a problem for Pedro this year as he allowed 7 in 44 2/3 innings during the regular season. That’s 31.3 per 200 innings, a high number compared to Pedro’s career rate of 16.9. Most of his 2009 homers were hit by lefties, so pitching in Yankee Stadium gives the New York lefties a chance to go deep.

Over his career, from 1995-2009, Andy Pettitte leads the majors in wins. Pedro ranks sixth with 198 wins. If instead, players are ranked by winning percentage over that time, Pedro comes out at number one at .690 (min 200 decisions) and Pettitte drops to 7th at .629. Martinez is exactly one run better in ERA than Pettitte, 2.91 to 3.91. Basically, this is a battle of titans of the last 15 years.

One thing about starting Burnett and Pettitte in games 5 and 6 respectively is the home/road split worked against both pitchers. Andy gave up 14 of his 20 home runs at the new stadium, and his ERA is nearly 0.9 runs higher. What’s more, left-handed batter pounded him for a higher BA and Slugging percentage than righties, and the same OBP. With Utley zoned in, and a pretty good hitter against lefties anyway, I think the odds of his breaking Jackson’s single World Series home run record is good.

It strikes me that this pitching matchup favors the Phillies tonight, not even taking rest into account. I will not be at all surprised to see a game seven tomorrow.

Enjoy!

Posted by David Pinto at 4:18 pm | World Series | Permalink | 1 Comment