DMZ at U.S.S. Mariner praises the Seattle front office for the team’s turnaround in 2009. He notes, but looking at other poor organizations how difficult it is to go from well under .500 to .500.
One thing we’ve learned in the last 30 years of sabermetric research is that the contributions of star players were often exaggerated. I remember arguing with Dan Patrick about the 1990 AL MVP award. He thought it should go to Cecil Fielder, because the Tigers improved 20 games over the previous season with Fielder in the lineup. He failed to see that the Tigers also added a superb leadoff man in Tony Phillips, and that the pitching also improved. Dave Bergman posted a 0.2 WAR for the Tigers in 1989, Fielder came in at 6.7 in 1990. So the Tigers received 6.5 more wins at the position compared to Bergman, a number that tends to be at the high end of the scale for improvement. They didn’t get 20 wins better due to Fielder, however. Rick Schu and Doug Strange split time at third base in 1989 for the Tigers, combining for a -1.5 WAR. Phillips comes in and posts a 2.4 WAR, a turnaround of almost four.
The point here is that taking two poor positions, at or below replacement level, and filling them with two good players only netted the team ten wins. So if you’re at 63 wins, maybe you can get to 73 wins with two good moves. Maybe if you have a bunch of youngsters and they mature into better ballplayers, a team can add a few more wins. As Derek points out, however, a lot of team can’t do that.
I liked the way the Braves of the 1990s seemed to replace their least productive player every season with someone better. Team like the Mariners need to do the same, except more quickly if the want to win before the first additions age and decline. Replacing Griffey with a DH that can actually hit (Matsui) and having Balentien mature might do the trick.
Update: Hans reminds me Balentien was traded to the Reds. Does anyone else have a candidate for improvement on the Mariners? They also have to replace Beltre, likely.
Posted by David Pinto at 12:48 pm | Team Evaluation | Permalink | 2 Comments
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November 6th, 2009 @ 3:21 pm
They gave up on Balentien. He’s with the Reds. Do you mean Michael Saunders?
November 6th, 2009 @ 3:30 pm
@Hans: I forgot Balentien was traded. I was looking at the BR team page, and they listed Balentien as the leftfielder. Never mind.