November 7, 2009

Via MetsBlog.com, Peter Gammons discusses the future of Josh Beckett with the Red Sox.

But Beckett clearly is looking at the money the Yankees paid CC Sabathia ($161 million over seven years) and thinking he, too, can make between $15 million and $20 million. That will be a very tough call for the Red Sox, not much different from the call the Angels were required to make on John Lackey.

I would guess the operative contract comparison is not Sabathia but Zito. If I’m a pitcher better than Zito right now, I want more money per year than Barry’s getting. Owners will of course balk at that, due to Zito’s poor performance, but that’s where I would open negotiations.

The other thing I’ll point out is that players are too hung up on total value of the contract as opposed to the average salary. If Beckett walks into the Red Sox front office next week and asks for a two year extension for $48 million ($24 million per year), I think the Red Sox give him that deal in a minute. My guess is that for most players, short term contracts and free agency every two or three years would actually gross them more money, when you consider that baseball revenue tends to grow strongly and salaries along with it. Take for example, Vlad Guerrero. He signed a five-year deal for $14 million per year, and with an option ended up playing six years in Anaheim. If, instead, Vlad signed a three year contract, he would have been a free agent the same year as Gary Matthews. I’m guessing that Vlad could easily have signed a three-year, $18 million per year contract at that point, and ended up making $11 million more than the deal he originally signed.

On top to that, players can likely demand more money per year if they are willing to go shorter. The long term contracts work out for the old, declining players (Alfonso Soriano comes to mind). But if teams want to compete with the big money teams, more dollars per year from a shorter time might be the way to do it.

The question, then, is what is the added cost of a short term contract? If a player is worth $20 million a year over five years, what does it take to get him to sign a two-year deal? If the Brewers had tried to trump the Yankees offer to Sabathia with a two-year deal worth $60 million, would he have taken it? Some people wonder how teams can compete with the Yankees. If they can figure out a way to get an elite player to sign a short team deal, it might do the trick. It used to be that players tried to become the highest paid player in a season. Maybe that’s the way to go. Small market teams develop a good core of talent that they control, but then spend lavishly on a top free agent short term to put the team over the top.

I have no doubt this would be tough to do. Myself, given the option, would probably go for the long-term security. I’d love to see a team try this, however, to see what happens.

Posted by David Pinto at 12:01 pm | Salaries, Uncategorized | Permalink | 3 Comments