The Belichick call reminds me of something from The Hidden Game of Baseball
Runners, however, are always criticized when they take off from second and are out on the play, especially if the play is in front of them. Despite the odds favoring advancing, it’s silly to run into an obvious out. If the ball’s hit right at the short stop, don’t run. He’ll just tag you out. The runner from second wants the shortstop in the situation where he needs to make a throw to third, rather than just waiting for the runner and tagging him. So on a ball to the shortstop’s left, the runner should be advancing. On a ball in the hole, the runner should be trying to advance so he draws the throw to third, and maybe it gets screwed up. If you just run into a tag, however, it seems like the wrong play.
That’s why people are upset about the Belichick call. The odds of winning by going for it were better, but they weren’t that much better. If the Patriots punt, the Colts have more chances to make a mistake, since it should take them more plays to score. It’s just like running from second when the shortstop has to make a throw, there are more chances for a mistake to happen on the defensive side. It the minds of the fans, not punting was the same as running into an easy out. It makes sense probabilistically, but it’s still the wrong play.
Posted by David Pinto at 12:40 pm | Statistics, Strategy | Permalink | 2 Comments
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November 17th, 2009 @ 1:02 pm
I would agree that the runner should go to third, but on the play to the shortstops left. He’d have to turn and throw to 3rd, which is unlikely he would if the runner broke straight away. However on a ball hit in the hole, I say stay as it would be a difficult throw to first, but a much easier one to third given the momentum of the shortstop. I remember Escobar throwing out Reyes on just such a play this year, and got him easily. If he had to turn to throw to first, there was no guarantee of getting the runner.
Also I think those predictions would change if more teams started running in those situations, then shortstops and third basemen would be looking for the throw more often and you’d get more outs, thus diminishing the return on the play. For as the base-running changes, so would the defense I would think.
November 22nd, 2009 @ 4:09 pm
[...] convert in favor of the call, and add in their frivolous timeout-calling beforehand as a detriment. David Pinto is more sympathetic to Belichick, and gives a parallel situation in baseball. Oh, and here’s [...]