December 29, 2009

Players A to Z, David Bush

David Bush pitches as a starter for the Milwaukee Brewers. Despite posting the second highest strikeout rate of his career, Bush posted his highest season ERA, 6.38. Unfortunately, his walk rate and home run rate were also the highest of his career. In fact, both his BB and HR rates rose for the third straight season.

On the positive side, 14 of his 19 home runs allowed came with no one on base. On the negative side, he allowed a .316 batting average with men in scoring position. He also allowed the highest line drive percentage of his career, 21%.

Part of that may be due to an arm injury he suffered this season. It was pretty much a season where everything that could go wrong for Bush did. The question is, how much does he bounce back from this? His ERA, pitching with BB, K, and HR rates like 2009 probably gives him an ERA around 5.00. If he can reverse the rise in his walk and home run rates, he could bring it back to the lowe 4.00s. My guess is this season was an extreme outlier in a decline phase of his career. I’d look for his ERA to be closer to 5.00 than 4.00 in 2010.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *