The series on team offense continues with the Boston Red Sox. The fielders of the Fenway finished third in the majors and American League in runs per game in 2009, scoring 5.38 runs per game. The Boston Globe gave us a good idea of the Red Sox lineup in this pictorial.
The CBSSportsline depth chart confirms the personnel. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:
- Best lineup: 5.58 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 5.53 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 5.27 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 5.06 runs per game
If this is indeed the lineup the Red Sox go with this year, they’ve done their homework on lineup construction. I believe this is one of the smallest gaps I’ve seen between the best lineup and the probable lineup. Part of that is batting Martinez third (who is actually one of the lower ranked hitters on the team) and Scutaro ninth (the second leadoff man). I could imagine the Red Sox going with lineup #4 once in a while.
This analysis also shows that reports of the demise of the Red Sox offense are premature. This group looks as good as last year, provided Ortiz doesn’t tank more and Drew stays healthy. I can imagine Beltre hitting for more power, and Cameron, with no pressure at the bottom of the order, getting on base a bit more. If the defense is as good as the team expects, I imagine a number of big wins for this team.
Previous entries in this series:
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