The series on team offense continues with the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies finished fourth in the majors and first in the National League in 2009, scoring 5.06 runs per game. The USA Today provides starting lineups for each of the NL teams. The CBSSportsline depth chart shows the most used lineups from last season, and I don’t think Charlie Manuel is going to move Shane Victorino out of the second slot. I’m going with a lineup that simply replaces Pedro Feliz with Placido Polanco.
The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:
- Best lineup: 5.09 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 4.86 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 4.48 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 4.56 runs per game
The LAT wants the Phillies to put their two top OBP players, and the not too bad Polanco in front of the booming bat of Ryan Howard. Every time Howard comes to the plate, someone should be on base for him. The lineup the Phillies will likely use isn’t too bad, much closer to the best lineups than the worst.
Jimmy Rollins gets miscast as a lead off man, but given his veteran status and speed, he won’t be moved off that spot easily. If his OBP doesn’t get above .300 this year, however, the Phillies won’t have much of a choice. Utley and Howard’s power is less effective with no one on base.
Previous entries in this series:
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I think the Phillies lefthandedness has presented a problem for some years now, and so I’ve always thought that Chase Utley would be a much better number two hitter. In a strong lineup like this one, you can use a really strong hitter in that slot; you don’t have anyone to hide. The full lineup:
1. Rollins – He’ll never bat anywhere but here, so I’m not even considering the possibility of another leadoff man.
2. Utley
3. Werth – Again, in a strong lineup I think traditional lineup slot designations become less important, not that Werth hasn’t shown himself a significant danger to opposing pitchers the last two years. Plus he may benefit from having the big man behind him.
4. Howard
5. Victorino – His speed is somewhat wasted at the top of the lineup, as you never want to run yourself out of an inning with the big boys coming up. Down here you could give him more free reign.
6. Ibanez – Great RBI potential out of the six slot, I love that, like Tom Kelley batting Brunansky seventh.
7. Polanco – Such a skilled player, he won’t be hurt by patting without protection.
8. Ruiz
I’m not so sure that, say, batting Polanco leadoff and Rollins (assuming he improves significantly on last year’s performance) third. But now the run of lefthandedness in the middle of the lineup is resolved, and I think this lineup is hell on opposing bullpens.
bureaucratist, I like it. One note about Ruiz — in the Phillies last 76 games (incl. 15 postseason), Ruiz has the 2nd highest OPS on the team at .972, behind only Howard. Granted, it’s only about 195 PAs, but still a nice run.
@schmenkman: Sounds like you’re on to something. Phillies have two (maybe three, if you count Halladay) early MVP candidates, and neither is named Utley or Howard. They are Ruiz and Werth. Ruiz’ slash line stands at 354/481/488. If that stands, I think he’s a shoo-in!