Should Todd Helton lead off for the Rockies? Photo: Icon SMI
The series on team offense continues with the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies finished sixth in the majors and second in the National League in 2009, scoring 4.96 runs per game. The probable lineup on CBSSportsline serves as the template for the calculation.
The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:
- Best lineup: 5.18 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 4.96 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 4.63 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 4.65 runs per game
I’m not crazy about this lineup as reported on CBSSportsline. USA Today flips Gonzalez and Fowler, and bats Iannetta sixth. That would make more sense to me. Before I ran the lineup, I saw Helton’s OBP and thought he should lead off. His power is pretty much gone, but that great OBP would give the people behind him so many RBI opportunities. The top lineups all have Helton leading off. I really believe the players could be sold on the second best lineup listed by the LAT, 5.18 runs, with Tulowitzki second and Hawpe fifth. I also like lineup 14, with Hawpe batting fourth. The CBS lineup doesn’t make that much sense from a conventional standpoint, but lineups 2 and 14 are just a bit unconventional, but not so radical that the players and public would not accept them. I’ll be very interested in what lineup Jim Tracy finally chooses.
The default lineup has the Rockies scoring the same number of runs as in 2009. Better lineup construction might net them another 30 runs on the season, about three wins. That’s enough to make a big difference in finishing first or second in the NL West.
Previous entries in this series:
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Yankees
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Boston Red Sox
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Minnesota Twins
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