March 8, 2010

The series on team offense continues with the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays finished seventh in the majors and fifth in the American League in 2009, scoring 4.96 runs per game. The probable lineup on CBSSportsline serves as the template for the calculation. Note that Maddon is still pondering how to arrange his 3-4-5 hitters.

The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

• Best lineup: 5.50 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 5.39 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 5.22 runs per game
• Regressed lineup: 4.96 runs per game

Like the Yankees, it’s difficult for the Rays to post a bad lineup. Dioner Navarro is the only regular projected to own a below average OBP. If Navarro bounces back to his 2008 form, all nine could be above league average. Either way, the Rays are bound to get a good value for their outs.

In the article on Maddon linked above, he talks about batting Upton seventh, since Bartlett flourished in the lead-off slot:

“With our group right now, we’re talking about [possibly] putting [Evan Longoria] fifth, then it really speaks to the six and seven guys still being pretty good guys,” Maddon said. “He can still be six and someone else seven. That’s for right now, and what happened [Saturday]. And that’s what I’m thinking about.

“But I like what B.J.’s doing a lot. He’s really shortened things up. He’s getting his foot down in time. He’s getting ready to hit better, and I like what he’s doing.”

Jason Bartlett again will serve as the leadoff hitter after thriving in that slot in 2009. Maddon addressed why Bartlett enjoyed such great success in the top spot.

“The biggest difference I thought I saw was he became more patient at the plate,” Maddon said. “When he went from nine to one, he then knew that he had to get on base, and I think he went back to what he was doing a couple of years ago with Minnesota, where he became a little more patient at the plate.”

With these projections, the LAT likes Upton batting lead-off and Bartlett serving as the second lead-off man batting ninth. Some of the worst lineups show Upton batting seventh. Note too that Carl Crawford does not show up second in any of the top lineups, but often shows up second in the worst ones. I like lineup five, as I think a manager could sell that one to the players (Upton, Zobrist, Crawford, Longoria, Pena, Joyce, Burrell, Navarro, and Bartlett). Of course, since there isn’t that much difference between top and bottom, Maddon should not lose too much sleep over the exact order. This might actually be an opportunity to get player input. Have a meeting with the players to discuss where they want to bat, and let the nine come to a consensus. I suspect it would be as good as the one Joe writes down, and no one should be disappointed in his slot.

Previous entries in this series:

• Toronto Blue Jays
• New York Yankees
• Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
• Boston Red Sox
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Minnesota Twins
• Colorado Rockies

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Posted by David Pinto at 2:58 pm | Offense, Team Evaluation | Permalink | 1 Comment