Monday I introduced the idea of a Probabilistic Model of Steals. In that post, I looked at how the stage of the game, represented by the inning, changed the probability of attempting a steal, and the success rate on those attempts. Subsequent posts examined outs, the score difference and the combination of all three. This posts looks at base runners actual stolen base attempts compared to their expected stolen base attempts based on the model.

To review, I’m only concerned with the pure steal situation, only a runner on first. I define score difference from the point of view of the offensive player (Offensive score – defensive score). In looking at the data, a lead of seven runs in either direction seemed to be the point where teams really stopped running, so any lead of seven runs or greater is either placed in the 7 or -7 bin. I also put all extra innings in the 10 bin for that category, since each extra inning starts the same, with the score tied. The data is from 1996 through 2008. The following table displays all players with at least 500 steal situations defined by the three parameters. The players are ranked by the ratio of actual steals to expected steals, times 100. A ratio of 100 means the player stole exactly as often as expected. A ratio over 100 means the player attempts a steal more often than expected, under 100, less often. There are 345 players in the study:

That’s a pretty wide range of abilities. I especially like Jose Reyes and Carl Crawford at the top of the list, two players who run often, but also succeed often. Reggie Sanders and Raul Mondesi are less impressive, wasting a lot of their attempts with a caught stealing.

Derek Jeter comes out as one of the more average runners. His expectation was for 232 attempts, and he tried 237 times. His 75% steal rate is about break even in terms of runs for this era. Ivan Rodriguez, a catcher, comes closest hitting his expectation on the button.

At the other end of the scale are catchers, first basemen and designated hitters, with Mark McGwire bringing up the rear with only two steal attempts when 51 were expected. There are actually quite a few excellent hitters with a ratio under 30.

One thing I would like to open for discussion. My unit of measure for situations is the plate appearance. If the lead-off hitter reaches first and stays there through three more batters, that counts as three situations for the runner. I’m not sure that is correct. The outs situation changes, which means the strategy changes, so I think that right. Can anyone see a flaw in that argument? If the batter hits the first pitch, for example, was that really a opportunity for the runner to steal?

As always, I’m interested in your feedback. You can follow the series here.

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