Will Andre Ethier find his power stroke on the road this year? Photo: Icon SMI

The series on team offense continues with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers finished 11th in the majors and fourth in the National League in 2009, scoring 4.81 runs per game. The probable lineup on CBSSportsline serves as the template for the calculation.

The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

• Best lineup: 5.03 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 4.81 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 4.47 runs per game
• Regressed lineup: 4.54 runs per game

Joe Torre’s probable lineup is projected to score as many runs per game as the Dodgers did last season. That’s not surprising, since the Dodgers didn’t add anyone new to the order. Teams really should look for their weak links and try to make that position better every year. The Braves were masters of that strategy in the early 1990s, and it kept the offense fresh and dynamic.

The LAT agrees on which players should be batting 1-2-3-4, but not on the order. Furcal is a tough player to slot. His OBPs are somewhat erratic. Some years he makes a great lead-off man, and some years you want to hide him at the bottom of the order. I do like the idea of batting Ethier ahead of Kemp, at least on the road where Andre’s power seems to disappear.

Previous entries in this series:

• Toronto Blue Jays
• New York Yankees
• Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
• Boston Red Sox
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Minnesota Twins
• Colorado Rockies
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Texas Rangers

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