March 16, 2010

Team Offense, Baltimore Orioles

The series on team offense continues with the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles finished 15th in the majors and 10th in the American League in 2009, scoring 4.57 runs per game. The probable lineup on CBSSportsline serves as the template for the calculation.

The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

  • Best lineup: 5.13 runs per game
  • Probable lineup: 5.09 runs per game
  • Worst lineup: 4.87 runs per game
  • Regressed lineup: 4.74 runs per game

Dave Trembley’s lineup comes pretty close to perfection in terms of runs per game. A number of the top lineups bat Roberts and Reimold 1-2, and other have Markakis in the two slot. Putting those three together at the top of the order should give the Orioles plenty of runs, provided Roberts can play with his back. A lineup with Justin Turner playing second and leading off doesn’t do that much worse, 5.01 runs per game.

What I really like about this Orioles lineup is that 2-5 is made up of good, young players. That should give the Orioles a solid, cost effective core to build around for the next two or three years. This already looks to be an improving Orioles offense, and it doesn’t take much imagination to see them keep improving over the next few seasons.

Previous entries in this series:

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