The series on team offense continues with the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers finished 16th in the majors and 11th in the American League in 2009, scoring 4.56 runs per game. I usually use the probable lineup on CBSSportsline, but since they have yet to include Johnny Damon, I’m going with USA Today instead.

The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. For Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore, however, I used the BP 50% PECOTA projection. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

• Best lineup: 4.72 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 4.63 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 4.33 runs per game
• Regressed lineup: 4.41 runs per game

The Tigers lineup projects to contain four very good hitters (Cabrera, Damon, Guillen and Ordonez) and five very weak hitters. With that kind of diversity of talent, lineup construction becomes very important. There’s a 0.4 runs per game difference between the best and worst lineups, so a poorly constructed order could cost the team up to six wins.

Leyland, however, has concentrated his four good hitters together in the lineup in the two through five slots, somewhat maximizing their abilities to produce a stream of offense. Interestingly, the worst lineup does not split up these hitters, but just puts them at the bottom of the lineup, where they bat less often.

The big wild cards for the Tigers are Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore, who project to be poor hitters using PECOTA. If they turn out to get on base at closer to the AL average, expect a better season from the Tigers offensively. In general, however, this is a team that is going to rely on pitching and defense, with just enough offense for the runs they allow.

Previous entries in this series:

• Toronto Blue Jays
• New York Yankees
• Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
• Boston Red Sox
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Minnesota Twins
• Colorado Rockies
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Texas Rangers
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Cleveland Indians
• Florida Marlins
• Oakland Athletics
• Baltimore Orioles

Consider a contribution to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.