Justin Upton hopes to keep improving his offense. Photo: Icon SMI

The series on team offense continues with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The DBacks scored 4.44 runs per game in 2009, ranking 20th in the majors and 8th in the National League. The order comes from the probable lineup on CBSSportsline. You can also watch video of manager A.J. Hinch talking about the lineup here.

The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

• Best lineup: 4.99 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 4.78 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 4.51 runs per game
• Regressed lineup: 4.52 runs per game

The LAT likes Hinch’s 2-3-4-5 hitters batting 1-2-3-4. Putting Drew in the lead-off slot when he’s projected to own the second lowest OBP among the eight position players puts the lineup about 0.2 runs behind the optimum. My guess is that with Drew going into his seasonal age 27 year, the Diamondbacks are expecting an offensive surge. However, with over 2000 plate appearances, we have a very good idea how well Drew gets on base, so I would be surprised to see him post something well above .330. Just flipping Johnson and Drew in the above order brings the team up to 4.80 runs per game.

This looks like a very good offensive squad. Seven of the eight position player sport OBP at .330 or better, and the heart of the order produces nice power. The last few years, however, Arizona looked good offensively going into the season, but didn’t produce. A.J. Hinch has a chance to turn that around. With their ballpark, they should be one of the top scoring teams in the league.

I like Justin Upton’s projection. It’s good without being outrageous for a player his age. He’s only seasonal age 22 in 2010, and improved in each of the last two years. That projection could easily turn out to be low, and a big year by Justin could carry this team a long way.

Previous entries in this series:

• Toronto Blue Jays
• New York Yankees
• Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
• Boston Red Sox
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Minnesota Twins
• Colorado Rockies
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Texas Rangers
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Cleveland Indians
• Florida Marlins
• Oakland Athletics
• Baltimore Orioles
• Detroit Tigers
• Atlanta Braves
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Chicago White Sox

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