Earlier this month I introduced the idea of a Probabilistic Model of Steals. In that post, I looked at how the stage of the game, represented by the inning, changed the probability of attempting a steal, and the success rate on those attempts. Subsequent posts examined outs, the score difference and the combination of all three. This posts looks at running against catchers, comparing actual stolen base attempts against the expected number of attempts based on the model.

To review, I’m only concerned with the pure steal situation, only a runner on first. I define score difference from the point of view of the offensive player (Offensive score – defensive score). In looking at the data, a lead of seven runs in either direction seemed to be the point where teams really stopped running, so any lead of seven runs or greater is either placed in the 7 or -7 bin. I also put all extra innings in the 10 bin for that category, since each extra inning starts the same, with the score tied. The data is from 1996 through 2008. The following table displays all catchers with at least 1500 steal situations against them defined by the three parameters. The catchers are ranked by the ratio of actual steals to expected steals, times 100. A ratio of 100 means that runners stole exactly as often as expected against the catcher. A ratio over 100 means runners attempt steals more often than expected, under 100, less often. There are 105 catchers in the study:

With Yadier Molina injured this Wednesday afternoon, it seemed like a good time to look at this data. Molina is pretty amazing. Not only does he completely shut down the running game, the few who try to run against him make it less than 50% of the time. Note that his potential replacement, Jason LaRue, does a great job at stopping the running game as well.

Note also that Ivan Rodriguez and Benito Santiago earned their reputations as great arms behind the plate. Joe Mauer joins Yadier Molina as the next generation of outstanding throwers.

At the other end, Mike Piazza certainly earned his reputation as someone who was challenged at stopping the running game, and Scott Hatteberg needed to become a first baseman for more than just the injury.

The real interesting catchers to me are Yadier’s brother Jose, Wiki Gonzalez, and Joe Girardi. They all posted very low stolen base percentages against, yet that didn’t stop runners from trying to steal against them. There appears to be more than the catcher’s arm at work here.

The next post concentrates combining pitchers and catchers. As always, I’m interested in your feedback. You can follow the series here.

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