The series on team offense continues with the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds scored 4.15 runs per game in 2009, ranking 24th in the majors and 11th in the National League. The order comes from the probable lineup on CBSSportsline.
The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:
- Best lineup: 4.73 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 4.42 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 4.12 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 4.26 runs per game
Sometimes I wonder why Dusty Baker is managing a team. This is the first lineup I’ve analyzed this year that was closer to the worst lineup than the best lineup. Why is Chris Dickerson batting eighth instead of one or two? Why is Jay Bruce’s power buried at sixth? Does Dusty expect Scott Rolen to slug .500 again at age 35? Baker takes his four best hitters and splits them up as much as possible. Most managers at least put their four best hitters somewhere in the one through six slots. If these projections work out, and Baker uses something close to this all year, he’ll cost the Reds five wins.
Previous entries in this series:
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Yankees
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Boston Red Sox
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Minnesota Twins
- Colorado Rockies
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Texas Rangers
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Cleveland Indians
- Florida Marlins
- Oakland Athletics
- Baltimore Orioles
- Detroit Tigers
- Atlanta Braves
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Chicago White Sox
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Chicago Cubs
- Washington Nationals
- Kansas City Royals
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