The series on team offense continues with the New York Mets. The Metropolitans scored 4.14 runs per game in 2009, ranking 25th in the majors and 12th in the National League. The order comes from the probable lineup on CBSSportsline, although I substituted Rod Barajas for Omir Santos, since Rod appears to be the #1 starter at catcher.

The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

• Best lineup: 4.83 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 4.60 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 4.17 runs per game
• Regressed lineup: 4.39 runs per game

The good news is the Mets should trot out a better offense than they posted in 2009. The bad news is that there is a very big gap between the best Mets lineup and the worst Mets lineup. That usually means the talent is spread out across the spectrum. Jerry Manuel needs to arrange talent from great (Wright, Bay) to awful (Barajas, Francoeur). It’s situations like this where lineups do matter, and the wrong one can cost a lot of runs.

Before Jose Reyes’s thyroid problems, there was talk of batting him third. Interestingly, a number of the top lineups like him in that position in the order. I actually like the fourth lineup in the group the best, although batting Wright and Bay 1-2 makes no sense unless the pitcher bats eighth. The best lineup goes up to 4.93 runs per game, adding 0.1 runs per game, or somewhere between 1 and 2 wins over a season.

The one player missing from this lineup is Carlos Beltran. Here’s a lineup with Carlos batting fourth, Pagan out, and everyone else moved down a spot. It only adds .08 runs to Manuel’s lineup, however. The best thing Jerry could do to improve the order without being too unconventional is to get Castillo out of the two slot and down in the lineup. I suppose he could also replace Francoeur with Pagan once Beltran comes back. The best lineup with Pagan gets the Mets to 5.0 runs per game.

Previous entries in this series:

• Toronto Blue Jays
• New York Yankees
• Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
• Boston Red Sox
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Minnesota Twins
• Colorado Rockies
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Texas Rangers
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Cleveland Indians
• Florida Marlins
• Oakland Athletics
• Baltimore Orioles
• Detroit Tigers
• Atlanta Braves
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Chicago White Sox
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• Chicago Cubs
• Washington Nationals
• Kansas City Royals
• Cincinnati Reds

Consider a contribution to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.