With the season at hand, it’s time to start looking at the division races. I like to examine the core of the team; the eight or nine batters, the five starters and the closer. As I did in 2009, I’m going to use value wins or WAR to get an idea how the core of each team is constructed. The NL Central gets the first treatment.

St. Louis Cardinals

• Position player WAR: 29.6
• Starting Pitchers WAR: 14.2
• Closer WAR: 0.9
• Total WAR: 44.7

The Cardinals, via this analysis, are clearly the class of the division. Based solely on their core, they look like a 90 win team. The nearest division rival is Milwaukee, at 28.5. I will mention, however, that the Cubs looked like this a year ago, and injuries took a toll on that team.

The Cardinals have 25.5 WAR coming from four players; Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. If two of them suffer major injuries, the Cardinals would come back to the pack in the division. With both Pujols and Holliday suffering minor injuries this spring, and Carpenter’s injury history, that’s not too far fetched.

There’s also not a lot of upside because of age. Colby Rasmus is the only truly young player on the team. David Freese is 27 this season, which means he should be at his peak. Most of the players on the roster, however, are more likely to do a little worse than a little better.

Provided they stay healthy, however, St. Louis is looking to put together a big year, and may even challenge for best record in the National League. They have the best core starting pitching and the best core offense in the NL Central. They should be tough to beat.

Chicago Cubs

• Position player WAR: 16.1
• Starting Pitchers WAR: 10.8
• Closer WAR: 0.6
• Total WAR: 27.5

The Cubs chances at winning the division depend on three players rebounding from injuries; Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto, and Aramis Ramirez. If they can return to their 2008 level of play, they would add eight or nine wins to the core WAR, and at least put the Cubs in contention for the wild card. That’s not an easy task, however, as Soriano and Ramriez and both in their 30s, a time when it’s tough to keep up even when healthy. In fact, outside of Soto, the Cubs lineup is at the age when decline is more likely than improvement. If the team doesn’t get better years from those three, there’s not much else in the lineup that offers them hope.

The starting pitching is solid with Zambrano, Dempster and Wells. With Ted Lilly a question mark as he recovers from shoulder surgery, the fourth and fifth starter roles fall to Carlos Silva and Tom Gorzelanny. Tom pitched well in 2007, increased his strikeout rate since then, but his ERA exploded. Maybe, on a better team for the full year, he’ll find that 2007 groove again.

I suspect the Cubs will be a good, but not great team this year.

Milwaukee Brewers

• Position player WAR: 18.7
• Starting Pitchers WAR: 8.3
• Closer WAR: 1.5
• Total WAR: 28.5

The Brewers come in second place in the division in total core WAR, tied for first in closer WAR and second in WAR for position players. Better than 1/3 of their total comes from two players, Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. Their starting pitching should be improved with the addition of Randy Wolf and further progress from Yovani Gallardo.

The Brewers also have more upside than downside on their team. Alcides Escobar and Carlos Gomez are young players, and at least Escobar looks like he’ll do a good job getting on base. Casey McGehee is 28, and after a good 2009 performance, a full year of him should bring the Brewers wins up as well. Those three could easily add another four or five wins to the core total.

The downside? I don’t see much. Trevor Hoffman and Doug Davis are old, but not that much is expected of them in the way of wins. Not much is expect of Hart, and he might be replaced if he keeps playing badly. Rickie Weeks could surprise on the upside, as he generated just 1.5 WAR last year. The Brewers look like a team that’s more likely to improve this year, and I think they have a great shot at second place in the division.

Cincinnati Reds

• Position player WAR: 16.5
• Starting Pitchers WAR: 7.3
• Closer WAR: 1.5
• Total WAR: 25.3

I want to like the Cincinnati Reds more than their core WAR indicates. They have a potentially great starting rotation with Aaron Harang, Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo and Homer Bailey. Whoever ends up the fifth starter will be an unknown quantity. However, Travis Wood, Mike Leake and Aroldis Chapman all look like they could pitch better than the average fifth starter. Between that trio, Homer Bailey getting the hang of pitching in the majors, and Johnny Cueto maturing, the Reds could add five or six more wins to their stater WAR, putting them closer to the Cardinals. They certainly look like they have the most depth in the division.

All of that may get negated by the offense, where Dusty Baker appears to be set to put a poor lineup on the field. That said, Reds fans should expect more playing time for Jay Bruce, Joey Votto and Drew Stubbs, and each are young enough that further improvement in their games is likely. If Bruce and Stubs can become 3-4 WAR players, then the core of the team (with the pitchers) looks like a low 30s WAR team, and that could turn into a contender.

I’m mildly optimistic about this team, but things never quite work out for Cincinnati. Maybe this is the season that changes.

Houston Astros

• Position player WAR: 14.9
• Starting Pitchers WAR: 6.8
• Closer WAR: 0.0
• Total WAR: 21.7

The zero WAR for closer Matt Lindstrom probably isn’t fair, since he injured his elbow last season with the Marlins. Then again, the chance of a player getting injured goes up after returning from an injury, so his elbow may give out again. I suspect, however, he’s closer to a one than a zero, so we can bump up the Astros a little in the closer role.

The Astros will try once again to surround their good starters, Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez with decent pitchers. Brett Myers is a huge question mark, but Bud Norris shows promise. Felipe Paulino needs to figure out a way to keep the ball in the park if he’s going to be successful in the major leagues. There’s a glimmer of hope there than this starting five can get their WAR over 10.

On offense, Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence matured into good hitters in 2009, just as Lance Berkman and and Carlos Lee started to fade. Lee and Berkman need to bounce back, and along with Pence and Bourn, the Astros could put up some decent offensive numbers, good enough to win if the pitching staff turns out okay. That scenario is not off to a great start with Lance suffering a knee injury.

Lots of things need to go right for the Astros to compete in 2010. When a team depends on six players showing improvement just to get into contention, the chances of winning stay low.

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Position player WAR: 10.8
• Starting Pitchers WAR: 8.0
• Closer WAR: 0.8
• Total WAR: 19.6

The good news is that with a core WAR of 19.6, the Pirates are likely to improve over their 62-99 record. I just wonder if the 19.6 core WAR is a floor or ceiling. I expect a number like that from a team with lots of young players who are on the rise. The Pirates do have Andruw McCutchen and Lastings Milledge, who are still young enough to improve, but they also have a number players like Andy LaRoche and Garrett Jones, hitters who are just emerging when they are already in their primes. I just don’t see too much upside for the offense, although there’s not a lot of downside either.

The Pirates back of the rotation, however, seems to be the right age to breakout. Ross Ohledorf, Charlie Morton and Daniel McCutchen (they cornered the market on McCutchens) are between 26 and 28, in a nice sweet spot for pitchers. None of them have wowed anyone at the major league level yet. I would be much more optimistic about the rotation than about the position players with this team.

The bottom line is they are not ready to compete, and in all likelihood they are not ready to reach the .500 mark, either.

Prediction

Here’s how I see the division finishing, with the team chances of winning the division:

1. St. Louis Cardinals, 45%
2. Milwaukee Brewers, 20%
3. Chicago Cubs, 18%
4. Cincinnati Reds, 12%
5. Houston Astros, 4%
6. Pittsburgh Pirates, 1%

The club most likely to surprise me is the Reds. I can see their pitching staff performing much better than I expect, in which case they could move up in the division.

Thanks to FanGraphs for the Win Values and CBS Sports for the depth charts.