The division preview series continues with the NL West. I like to examine the core of the team; the eight or nine batters, the five starters and the closer. As I did in 2009, I’m going to use value wins or WAR to get an idea how the core of each team is constructed.

Los Angeles Dodgers

• Position player WAR: 21.1
• Starting Pitchers WAR: 11.4
• Closer WAR: 2.9
• Total WAR: 35.4

The Dodgers core sums up to have the best set of position players and the best closer in the division. Many of the hitter WARs seem low to me however. My gut tells me Loney at 1.5 WAR and Ethier at 2.5 WAR could do better. On top of that, Manny Ramirez supplied 2.8 WAR while missing 50 games due to suspension. I suspect if he plays a full year that number will be higher. Overall, the offense looks like it has some upside.

The rotation is solid, although Charlie Haeger doesn’t look like much of a fifth starter. Vicente Padilla is a real wild card. If he pitches like he did once he left Texas, the rotation will be very good. If he goes back to his Texas ways, the Dodgers will have a very weak back of the rotation.

Los Angeles should be every bit as good as they were in 2009.

Colorado Rockies

• Position player WAR: 18.5
• Starting Pitchers WAR: 15.1
• Closer WAR: 0.5
• Total WAR: 35.1

The Rockies core is separated from the Dodgers by a fraction of a WAR. While the Rockies position player are a bit behind Los Angeles, Colorado’s rotation beats the Dodgers by a bit more. The big difference between the teams comes from the closers, as Jonathan Broxton beats Franklin Morales by 2.4 WAR.

One place where this team might get better is on the infield, with Chris Ianetta and Ian Stewart finally installed as the regular starters. Both are at an age where we can expect big things. Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez are two more players who might raise their game as well.

Jeff Francis is penciled into the rotation. Although he might not be back until May, four or five months of his work will be much better than the zero he put up due to injuries in 2009.

Like the Dodgers, there is mostly upside with the Rockies, and maybe even more than Los Angeles. The two should be in a tight race for the top spot once again.

San Francisco Giants

• Position player WAR: 12.6
• Starting Pitchers WAR: 15.8
• Closer WAR: 2.4
• Total WAR: 30.8

The Giants are certainly in striking distance of the Dodgers and the Rockies. Tim Lincecum’s 8.2 WAR is the highest of any player in the division, and combined with Pablo Sandoval’s 5.2 WAR, they are the highest scoring teammates in the division. Their 15.8 rotation WAR is the best in division as well as Matt Cain, Barry Zito and Jonathan Sanchez are more than solid behind Tim.

They need to find five wins on offense. I just don’t see where those wins can come from with their starting lineup. Maybe Edgar Renteria bounces back and adds a couple of WAR, but at his age that’s becoming less likely. The best way would be to give Buster Posey a chance to catch every day, then trade for a first baseman who can actually hit.

The Giants have not won a World Series since 1954, and never in San Francisco. This is a team that is at least close to getting into the playoffs, where anything can happen. Their failure to improve the offense over the winter when the division is winnable leaves me wondering what’s going on with the Giants front office and ownership.

San Diego Padres

• Position player WAR: 15.8
• Starting Pitchers WAR: 5.9
• Closer WAR: 2.0
• Total WAR: 23.7

The Padres look like they own a better offense than the Giants. Unlike the Giants, there also appears to be some upside there. Kyle Blanks is set to join Adrian Gonzalez as a premier slugger, and Chase Headley may finally realize his potential.

The rotation, however, is now headed up by Jon Garland instead of Jake Peavy. While Garland is a fine middle of the rotation starter, he should not be headlining. Chris Young has the potential to become the ace of the staff, but he needs to find a way to stay healthy. A good season by Chris, however, would make the rotation look a lot more competitive in the division.

The Padres are the weakest team in the division, but they aren’t so weak that one couldn’t imagine them making a run at the division with a little luck.

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Position player WAR: 15.9
• Starting Pitchers WAR: 9.7
• Closer WAR: 1.2
• Total WAR: 26.8

The Diamondbacks own the third best offense in the division, and there’s a good chance it can get better. Kelly Johnson, Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson, Chris Young and Justin Upton all have upside potential compared to 2009. If each of them added just one WAR to their 2009 marks, the Arizona position players would be on par with Los Angeles. There’s little downside among the eight position players as well.

Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson are great at the front of the rotation. The big question marks are Ian Kennedy and Brandon Webb, both coming off injury filled seasons in 2009. Webb is not ready to pitch yet, but four months of a good Webb will push those numbers up. Kennedy never really proved he can pitch at the major league level, so he’s much more of a wild card. If Webb and Kennedy can combine to add four WAR to the team total, along with five from the offense, suddenly the Diamondbacks are in the thick of the division race.

Getting that many players to improve with no backsliding by others is difficult however. I’m guess Arizona does not finish last, but the safe bet is that they don’t finish that close to first.

Prediction

Here’s how I see the division finishing, with the team chances of winning the division:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers, 30%
2. Colorado Rockies, 29%
3. San Francisco Giants, 20%
4. Arizona Diamondbacks, 15%
5. San Diego Padres, 6%

This should be a fun division race. There’s great pitching, young players looking to improve, and it may get settled by who makes the best in season moves. No team looks so good that they’ll run away with the race, and no team is so bad that a little luck can’t thrust them into contention. Don’t count any team out here.

Thanks to FanGraphs for the Win Values and CBS Sports for the depth charts.