April 4, 2010

AL Central Preview

The division preview series continues with the AL Central. I like to examine the core of the team; the eight or nine batters, the five starters and the closer. As I did in 2009, I’m going to use value wins or WAR to get an idea how the core of each team is constructed.

Minnesota Twins

Joe Mauer

Joe Mauer looks to repeat his MVP performance as the Twins move into Target Field. Photo: Icon SMI

  • Position player WAR: 25.7
  • Starting Pitchers WAR: 12.7
  • Closer WAR: 0.7
  • Total WAR: 39.1

The Minnesota Twins look like the class of the division going into 2010. The organization did a great job position the team for the inaugural season of Target Field. They come off 2009 with a playoff appearance, then added strength to the team to increase the likelihood of another division win this season

The big strength for this team lies on the offensive side. Mauer, Span and Morneau combined for a WAR of 15.3 in 2009. That is equal to the Tigers offensive total, and higher than the starting lineups for the other three teams. The additions of J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson help make them solid up and down the lineup.

The starting staff is solid, and the four young starters are all between 26 and 28 (seasonal age). All are veterans now, and should be ready for one more level of improvement. If Liriano is finally fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, the Twins could also challenge for the best rotation in the division.

The Twins core should take them close to 90 wins. I can easily see them running away with this somewhat weak division.

Detroit Tigers

Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander was one of two players in the division with a higher WAR than Joe Mauer in 2009. Photo: Icon SMI

  • Position player WAR: 15.3
  • Starting Pitchers WAR: 12.9
  • Closer WAR: 0.7
  • Total WAR: 28.9

The Tigers lineup looks to have much more upside than downside in 2010. Part of that is Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen realized their downside potential last season. Those two may bounce back and add three or four wins the the position player total. Austin Jackson plays in the majors for the first time, so he could add one or two wins also. I suspect the Detroit starting nine are four or five wins better than the above total.

The pitching could also be better, as Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis each get a shot at reversing negative seasons. Willis pitched better this spring, but his walk totals are still high. If he can get them down to four per nine during the regular season, he won’t be great, but he should survive. I like Bonderman’s spring walks and strikeouts better than Dontrelle’s. At this point, I’m not very optimistic about either.

Verlander, Scherzer and Porcello, however, still give the Tigers a solid rotation. Finding two more decent starters will go a long way toward keeping them in contention.

Chicago White Sox

Carlos Quentin

Carlos Quentin hopes to return to his 2008 form. Photo: Icon SMI

  • Position player WAR: 12.0
  • Starting Pitchers WAR: 15.0
  • Closer WAR: 0.4
  • Total WAR: 27.4

The White Sox look like they’ll have an outstanding rotation in 2010. The weakest pitcher is Freddy Garcia, and he at least posted a 1.6 WAR in 2009. I suspect both Jake Peavy and John Danks will be better in 2010, possibly adding three to five wins the the rotation total.

The offense holds a number of question marks, however. Chicago appears to be depending on players like Alex Rios and Carlos Quentin to come back from poor seasons, and Mark Teahen to realize his potential now that he’s out of Kansas City. Further development by Gordon Beckham will help as well. Like the Tigers, the downside happened to players in 2009, so the White Sox are more likely to be better than the 12.0 WAR for offense.

The White Sox and Tigers are very similar teams, but I like the White Sox upside potential more than the Tigers.

Cleveland Indians

Grady Sizemore

Grady Sizemore needs to combine with Shin-Soo Choo to give the Indians two elite players in their lineup. Photo: Icon SMI

  • Position player WAR: 13.1
  • Starting Pitchers WAR: 3.8
  • Closer WAR: 0.2
  • Total WAR: 17.1

The Indians are going to need a lot of things to go right in order not to finish in last place.

  • Grady Sizemore needs to bounce back from a poor season.
  • Fausto Carmona needs to pitch like he did in 2007.
  • Jake Westbrook needs to show he’s fully recovered from Tommy John surgery.

Mitch Talbot showed great control in the minors, but not in his brief 2008 stint with the Rays. He could possibly add a couple of wins to the Indians rotation total.

I’m just not optimistic about the Indians offense. Choo and Sizemore should be great, but there’s not much surrounding them at all. Lucky for Cleveland, they’re in the same division as Kansas City. The ineptness of the Royals front office may allow the Indians to finish out of the cellar.

Kansas City Royals

Zack Greinke

Zack Greinke lis the other pitcher to post a better WAR in 2009 than Joe Mauer. Photo: Icon SMI

  • Position player WAR: 5.4
  • Starting Pitchers WAR: 16.1
  • Closer WAR: 1.8
  • Total WAR: 23.3

The Royals look to send out the best rotation in the division, thanks in large part to Zack Greinke. None of the starters are horrible, and Luck Hochevar has the strikeout and walk rates needed to bring down his ERA considerably.

On offense, however, there just isn’t much upside. Billy Butler may break out and double his WAR to five. Mike Aviles might stay healthy and put up better numbers. Jose Guillen should be better just being put a DH, since his defense can no longer hurt the team. There’s just not enough there to turn this team into a winner. There may be enough, however, to keep them out of last place.

Prediction

Here’s how I see the division finishing, with the team chances of winning the division:

  1. Minnesota Twins, 40%
  2. Chicago White Sox, 25%
  3. Detroit Tigers, 24%
  4. Kansas City Royals, 6%
  5. Cleveland Indians, 5%

I may have the Royals and Indians too high here, but this division always fools me.

Thanks to FanGraphs for the Win Values and CBS Sports for the depth charts.

1 thought on “AL Central Preview

  1. Pingback: FtFP: Previews, links, and game reactions | Kings of Kauffman | A Kansas City Royals Blog

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