The division preview series finishes with the AL West. I like to examine the core of the team; the eight or nine batters, the five starters and the closer. As I did in 2009, I’m going to use value wins or WAR to get an idea how the core of each team is constructed.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

• Position player WAR: 25.5
• Starting Pitchers WAR: 13.3
• Closer WAR: 0.4
• Total WAR: 39.2

Reports of the Angels demise seem a bit premature. This is still a very good team. Some of what they lost with Chone Figgins going to Seattle they gained back by replacing Vlad Guerrero with Hideki Matsui. The projections for Brandon Wood at third aren’t very good, however, so they may not gain much from that move.

They also more than replaced John Lackey’s value with Joel Pineiro. They may not get a 4.8 WAR from Joel however. His last season with the Cardinals didn’t fit in well with the rest of his career. The Angels, however, seem to be good judges of pitching talent, so I suspect they saw something they liked in the former Cardinal.

In general, I’m very comfortable with their 39.2 core WAR. None of the older players are coming off such high levels that I would expect a big fall off, and there aren’t many of the younger players who I expect to do much better. One place they might have picked up some wins is with Scott Kazmir, but he’s starting the season on the disabled list, so once again the injury bug hit him.

Yes, the Angels aren’t quite as good as they were in 2009, but they are definitely good enough to challenge for another AL West title or the AL Wild Card.

Texas Rangers

• Position player WAR: 18.2
• Starting Pitchers WAR: 7.7
• Closer WAR: 1.1
• Total WAR: 27.0

I thought I would like the Texas Rangers chances more than I do. As I look at the lineup, there are a number of good players, but no superstar to carry the team. Both Josh Hamilton and Vlad Guerrero are capable of putting up better seasons than they did in 2009. Both going to 4.0 WAR would add five wins to the Rangers total, and put the offense on a par with the Angels and Mariners.

On the pitching side, the person who needs to post a superstar season is Rich Harden. In years he stayed healthy, Harden posted WARs over 4.0. That would add two more wins to the Rangers total. Those three players bouncing back brings the Rangers closer to contention.

I’m also interested in seeing how the rest of the starting staff performs this year. It’s the second season of Nolan Ryan’s program to condition his starters to go deeper in games. We saw some improvement last season, and we’ll see if that continues this year. Right now, however, the Rangers look like a third place team.

Seattle Mariners

• Position player WAR: 24.1
• Starting Pitchers WAR: 16.2
• Closer WAR: 1.9
• Total WAR: 42.2

The Mariners front office did a great job of improving the team to the point where they appear to have the strongest core in the AL West. They sport three players with 2009 WARs over six, and two more with WARs over 5.0. Two of those sixes came from other teams as the Mariners signed Chone Figgins and traded for Cliff Lee. They join holdovers Felix Hernandez, Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro Suzuki.

Those five players, however, account for about 75% of the team’s core WAR, meaning there isn’t a lot of depth on the team. If one of them gets hurt (Cliff Lee, for example) or Chone Figgins falls back to a more normal (for him) 3.0 WAR, there aren’t many players who might pick them up. In other words, the core value of 42.2 WAR is very soft.

Even with a soft improvement, the Mariners are definitely moving in the right direction. With a little luck, everything goes right and they compete for the division and/or the wild card.

Oakland Athletics

• Position player WAR: 12.3
• Starting Pitchers WAR: 7.9
• Closer WAR: 2.4
• Total WAR: 22.6

I have little doubt the Athletics offense will be near the bottom of the AL in runs scored this year. A full year of Cliff Pennington could add a couple of wins to that total, but there’s little in the way of other batters who might out perform their 2009 WAR.

The Athletics, however, did set themselves up to trot a good starter to the mound every day. The starter’s WAR above includes zeros for both Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer, coming back from injuries that kept them off the mound in 2009. Both pitch well when healthy. A full season from both, plus improvements as Anderson, Braden and Gonzalez mature could bring this rotation on a par with Seattle’s, but with more depth.

With a good starter on the mound every game, and a low scoring team, the A’s should play a ton of close games. That means they have a chance to get lucky and win the close ones, especially with their excellent closer Andrew Bailey. I don’t think this team has a great chance of winning the division, but if they can squeeze out enough close wins, they might surprise me.

I also have to believe if the A’s find themselves in contention with a low scoring team, that Billy Beane will find a bat in July. My best guess for this year, however, is that the team continues to improve the pitching staff, then they try to expand the offense next season.

Prediction

Here’s how I see the division finishing, with the team chances of winning the division:

1. Seattle Mariners, 35%
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 34%
3. Texas Rangers, 20%
4. Oakland Athletics, 11%

This is a tough one. Based on depth, I like the Angels better. Best on star players, I like the Mariners better. The Rangers and Athletics are too dependent on players injured last year making come backs to rank higher.

Thanks to FanGraphs for the Win Values and CBS Sports for the depth charts.