J.C. Bradbury thinks Josh Beckett got the better of the deal with the Red Sox. There’s going to be a fairly weak free agent market for starting pitchers next year. If Beckett has a good year in 2010, he would have received a lot of money for a lot of years over the winter. Does that mean that Josh thinks he might not pitch that well in 2010?
There is of course, another explanation. When free agency started up, people thought the big market teams would soak up all the great players. Instead, free agents often went to where they wanted to play, either close to home or for a chance to win the World Series. (The Yankees offered Greg Maddux more money, but he wanted to play for a winner in Atlanta.) It’s quite possible that Beckett likes playing in Boston, believes he can win more championships playing in Boston and wants to stay there. So he took a discount in years, but a bonus in yearly salary. Makes sense to me.
Players are a bit spooked about collusion being talked about that will be addressed by the MLBPA and MLB in the offseason. That may have played a role.
Josh was diagnosed with shoulder problems with the Marlins and surgery at one point was contemplated. The condition prevented him from being insured until recently, and according to him this played a role in him signing the extension in 2006 (or 2007) and giving up a couple of FA years (that extension was his insurance).
After 3 seasons of 200 IP ball, apparently he is now insurable. However, he did not end the past 2 seasons very well. At the end of 2008 he missed some time and his problems might very well have been shoulkder related. Last year he had a very rough August. The Red Sox FO is notorious for not providing accurate information (supposedly he fell asleep wrong and pinched a nerve in 2008).
Also, during negotiations the Red Sox started to talk publicly about shoulder concerns (through an anonymous source). Josh probably recognized that the Red Sox walking away from him due to concern about his health would have some negative impact on the FA market (even w/o possible collusion to worry about).
And then Josh may have considered that he might end up in pinstripes if he went the FA route.
And lastly, remember Nomar. The money is on the table today. An injury in 2010 ensures that same money may not be available. With this extension, at the end of 5 years he will have earned 120 million or so. What will the extra 20 million do for him. So grab the 70 million on the table, and who knows, maybe that 20 million can still be had if he stays healthy. If not, it’s been good anyways. Smart guy.
Works pretty well for both parties. Red Sox get shorter years and an insurable contract. Beckett can rest easy and bank another 70 million over 4 years, and if he blows out his shoulder, the big loser is the insurance company, although losing a quality pitcher is a loss in and of itself, without regard to contract.
As for the reason given, remember, there are always 2 reasons, one is the reason given, the other is the real reason. Saying you took less money because you love Boston and the fans is a good reason, the fans eat it up, and it may be true, but it is not likely to be the main reason or only reason.