With one week of play in the books, offense is down about 0.4 runs compared to the first week of 2009. This surprised me, because the weather was good. When I looked further, however, I couldn’t see the reason offense was down:
| Statistic | 2009 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|
| Runs per game | 9.59 | 9.15 |
| Home Runs per game | 2.13 | 2.08 |
| On base per game | 25.42 | 25.37 |
As you can see, the difference in home run rates and on base rates can only be seen if you carry the calculation out two decimal points. So players are basically hitting home runs and getting on base at the same rate, but scoring many fewer runs. What happened?
Teams did not hit with runners in scoring position the first week. In 2009, teams went 432/1584, a .273 batting average. This season teams are 390 for 1607, a .243 BA. Since there is a 50 run difference between 2009 and 2010, 42 more hits with runners in scoring position would have more than made up the difference.
So I don’t think the low scoring will last. The intrinsic ability to generate runs, getting on base and hitting for power is the same. With enough games played, things should even out.