The Astros have their first winning streak of the season as they come back late to defeat the Cubs 3-2 in ten innings. Carlos Lee’s horrible slump continues, however, as he goes 0 for 5 on the day. He’s not 4 for 48 on the season, a .104 BA with no extra base hits, no RBI and only one walk.

Most opening season slumps are simply bad streaks that haven’t had a chance to overcome a small sample. Sometimes, the batter is doing something well (like Mark Teixeira and Nick Johnson drawing walks). Lee’s slump is starting to get into the realm of being unlikely, however. He’s a career .290 hitter, and the chance of a .290 hitter getting no more than five hits in 48 at bats is .0019, or 0.2%. Another way of looking at the same thing is that in 48 at bats, a .290 hitter will knock out between 8 and 20 hits 95% of the time.

It’s even worse when you look at these same stats in terms of OBP. With only one walk and no hit by pitches, Lee only reached base six times in 49 PA, a .122 OBP. He’s owns a .342 OBP, and the probability of him reaching base no more than six times in 49 PA is .00045, or 0.045%. The 95% confidence interval for reaching base would be 10 to 23 times.

The upshot is that Carlos is doing significantly worse than we would expect. This may not be a simple, early season slump. I’d say the odds are good that either Lee is hurt, or at seasonal age 34, we’re seeing a fall-off in his abilities.