May 7, 2010

Walk-off Wonder

Steve Dilbeck gathers praise for Andre Ethier over his ability to win games at the last second:

“I’ve managed some pretty good players, but the opportunities he’s had and as many times as he’s done it, I don’t remember anybody being as heroic as he’s been,” Torre said.

Ethier might as well have come to the plate wearing a red cape and with a giant “S” across the front of his jersey. Milwaukee reliever LaTroy Hawkins instantly knew the jig was up when he walked Matt Kemp to load the bases.

“I don’t know what it is, for some damn reason I keep getting up there in that situation,” Ethier said. “I can’t figure it out. I don’t know who else has that many opportunities to win games like that.”

Actually, quite a few batters had opportunities to win games like that. If we define a walk-off opportunity as having the winning run at the plate in the bottom of the ninth or later, Ethier has been in 44 of those in his career and picked up the GWRBI in 11 of them. That 25%, the highest percentage of anyone in majors, 2006-2010 with at least 20 chances:

Walk off RBI chances, 2006-2010, highest rate of conversion to wins.
Batter Chances GWRBI Percentage
Andre Ethier 44 11 25.0
David Ortiz 29 7 24.1
Nomar Garciaparra 22 5 22.7
Kurt Suzuki 36 7 19.4
Javier Valentin 22 4 18.2

The are 26 players with more opportunities than Ethier in that time frame. Adrian Gonzalez and Felipe Lopez are tied for the most with 59. Each converted just two. Ryan Zimmerman has nine GWRBI in those situations, second to Ethier, but is fourth in situations with 56. The worst performer is Hanely Ramirez with 50 opportunities since 2006, but no game winning RBI.

If you look at opportunities considered clutch in Ethier’s career splits, nothing stands out. He hits about as well with runners in scoring position as he does overall, and hits better with a lead than with the game tied or his team trailing. Put the game on the line, however, and he does become superman.

6 thoughts on “Walk-off Wonder

  1. Rob McMillin

    Except that yesterday the winning run was at third base. The sloppy way Hawkins was throwing, it was a wonder he didn’t wild pitch home the winning run.

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  2. David Young TBLA

    “If we define a walk-off opportunity as having the winning run at the plate in the bottom of the ninth or later,”

    Can I assume that also includes the winning run on the basepaths? Has to be, right?, because I know Ethier hasn’t hit 11 walk-off homers.

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  3. Katie

    David – Did you mine your own database for this info? Just curious how you came up with the game-winning chances.

    ReplyReply
  4. David Pinto Post author

    @Katie: The Day by Day database has batting events back to 1974. So I know the base situation and the score difference in the game, so I can figure out if the batter can drive in the winning run.

    ReplyReply
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