Clay Buchholz pitches six shutout innings in a rain interrupted game as the Red Sox downed the Blue Jays 5-0. Clay lowers his ERA to 2.26, giving him a quarter run lead over Felix Hernandez and a much better record at 15-5. Clay also had a good strikeout game, fanning seven batters.
So is he a legitimate Cy Young candidate? A low ERA is a good sign that one should win the award. He has a shot at 20 wins, especially if he keeps pitching like this. His FIP is over a run higher than his ERA, however, and he’s likely to finish the season with less than 200 innings. Hernandez has pitched better in terms of FIP, and may wind up with 240 innings (and a losing record). At the moment, I’d be inclined to vote for Hernandez. If Clay ends up with a 2.20 ERA and 20 wins, he’ll win the award going away.
Clay has a low K rate, meaning he is heavily reliant on his defense. His low BABIP may be because he is inducing weak contact, but it also could mean a bit of luck there.
As you pointed out, he is unlikely to pitch 200 innings. His W totals will be a the result of the 3rd highest run support among pitchers, unlike the poor King Felix and Cliff Lee.
His WHIP is not overly impressive, but his ability to strand runners and keep the ball in the park reminds me of Daisuke in 2008, but a more efficient Daisuke in terms of PC. Hopefully Daisuke did not get any Cy Young votes.
Historically, I am not sure a pitcher has won a Cy Young Award without pitching 200 OP in a full season, and least not for the 12 years I went back to check.
There should be 3 criterias for Cy Young. Low runs, high IP, and reducing reliance on defense (high K’s). Unfortunately, W’s are also a reality among the dinosaurs, so that makes 4.
Using ERA-W-WHIP-K/9-IP (ranking) of cy Young winners.
2009 Greinke 1-7-1-3-5 (total 17)
2008-Lee 1-1-2-9-2 (total 15)
2007-CC 5-2-5-9-1 (total 22)
2006 Santana 1-1-1-1-1 (total 5)
2005 Colon 8-1-3-8-7 (total 27)
2004 Santana 1-2-1-1-2 (total 7)
2003 Halladay 5-1-2-9-1 (total 18)
2002 Zito 3-1-5-5-5 (total 19)
2001 Clemens 9-2-12-2-9 (total 34)
2000 Pedro 1-4-1-1-7 (total 14)
1999 Pedro 1-1-1-1-8 (total 12)
In 2010, some of the candidates are
Weaver 7-14-3-2-5 (total 31)
Felix 2-29-4-7-1 (total 43)
Lee 6-20-1-11-3 (total 41)
Cc 9-1-20-21-2 (total 53)
Lester 10-6-12-4-9 (total 41)
Clay 1-2-13-33-35 (total 84)
Daisuke 2008 3-4-24-5-38 (74)
Maybe these rankings will change, but at the moment, Clay has not worked enough to be considered, and his W’s are a product of a lot of run support and defense support due to his low K rate)
Of course, the Red Sox PR machine will probably win the day.