The Phillies did their best to kill the chances of a five-way tie in the National League by defeating the Braves Monday night. However, they did increase the chances of a four-way tie between the Braves and the three wild card contenders. We can still get a tie at 93 wins:
- Colorado Rockies 11-2
- San Diego Padres 10-3
- San Francisco Giants 9-3
- Atlanta Braves 7-4
- Philadelphia Phillies 3-8
Note that if you drop the Phillies, you get the standing for a four-way tie, and if you drop the Braves, you then get the results for the most likely tie, a three-way in the NL West. The following graph shows the latest probabilities of ties (click for a larger version):
With the Red Sox losing Monday night, the three-way tie in the AL East is almost dead. With the NL West back in action tonight, the following results would help along the massive ties:
- Tampa Bay defeats the New York Yankees
- Philadelphia either wins or loses against Atlanta. I’m leaning toward Philadelphia winning, as the four way tie is much more likely at this point.
- Boston defeats Baltimore
- San Francisco loses to the Chicago Cubs
- Colorado defeats Arizona. At this point, the last place team really needs to keep winning.
- San Diego defeats the Los Angeles Dodgers
Update: Thanks to Baseball Think Factory for the link. A commenter there wonders how the tie would be resolved among four teams for two spots. The three NL West teams would play a two-day single elimination tournament to determine the NL West winner. The three remaining teams would then play a two-day, single elimination tournament to determine the Wild Card winner.
The way things stand right now, the Rockies have the best head-to-head record among the three NL west teams, 20-13 against SF and SD combined. They would likely choose a bye. The Padres have the second best record (SF plays SD and Col. three times each, but would need to sweep to change this), and would host game one. The winner of that game would host the Rockies. If the Rockies win the West, the Braves would get a bye in the wild card round, and SD would host the Giants again. The winner would then host the Braves. So it’s possible that the Giants finish at home against SD, fly to SD for a playoff game, win, fly back to SF, lose, fly back to SD, win and they fly to SF for their final chance at making the playoffs!
Please correct me if I’m wrong on this:
If the Padres, Giants, Reds and Braves all finish with the same record, then you’d see:
Padres/Giants one-game playoff for the division
Loser/Braves one-game playoff for the Wild Card
If the NL West team gets the Wild Card then they’d play Philly, with Phillies getting the home field advantage. But who would have home field advantage in the Cincy/NL West Champ series?
If the Braves get the Wild Card, how would it be determined whether the Reds or NL West champ get the Braves and which travels to Philly? Also, does the division champ automatically get home field? If not, is it a coin flip to determine home field in the Braves series?
@David: Home field between two teams with the same record is determined by a series of tie breakers, the first being head-to-head record. The Reds have a losing record against all three of the NL West contenders, so if the Reds and the NL West winner finish with the same record, the NL West winner would get the Braves if they are the wild card, and the NL West winner would get home field if the Wild Card comes from the west.