Everything went right Friday night for the massive tie scenario, a three-way tie between the Braves, Giants and Padres. The loss by Atlanta set up a split of their last two games with Philadelphia, while the Padres win over the Giants kept the whole scenario alive. The probability of the tie happening is up to 0.115, or about 1 chance in 8.7. Based on the Pythagorean winning percentages and the log5 method, both the Padres and the Phillies have a .48 chance of winning a single game against their opponents. The Padres need to win two games, and the probability of that is .48*.48 = .2304. The Phillies need to split, which is 2*(.48+.52) = .4992, almost 1/2. (There are two ways for the Phillies and Braves to split, the Phillies winning either today or tomorrow.) Multiply those two probabilities together and the result is .115. Click on the graph for a larger view.

Today, the following results would be best for a massive tie:

• Atlanta loses to Philadelphia. This game doesn’t matter that much, but a Braves loss and a Padres win mean they are tied for the wild card going into Sunday. Even if the Padres lose, a Braves loss means they stay alive for a wild card tie and a playoff game Monday.
• San Diego defeats San Francisco. The Padres need to win both today and tomorrow.

If the tie happens, the Padres host the NL West division playoff game on Monday. The loser then flies to Atlanta for a wild card playoff game on Tuesday, since Atlanta won the season series against both teams. If Atlanta wins that game, they play the NL West winner. If the NL West wild card entry wins, they play the Phillies.