Dan Uggla turned down a four-year, $48 million contract from the Marlins. Both Ken Rosenthal and J.C. Bradbury wonder why. One reason might be that he produced $78 million worth of value in his Marlins career, and was paid about $14 million for it. Bradbury thinks $48 million is a fair offer:
I estimate Uggla to be worth approximately $51 million over the next four years ($12.75 million per year). That’s in the same ballpark as the Marlins’ offer, plus Uggla still has another year of arbitration, when he will likely get a little less than his market value.
Uggla, I suspect, wants an unfair offer, something that pays him for his past performance as well. He’s 31, however, so his remaining good years are limited. If he doesn’t sign, the Marlins might very well trade him to a contender during the season, giving him a chance at the playoffs in 2011. While he might not do better as a year-older free agent after the 2011 season, I doubt he will do worse (barring injury). So holding out gives him a chance for a playoff berth in 2011 and a good contract in 2012.