December 7, 2010

Reasonable Werth

J.C. Bradbury finds the Jayson Werth deal reasonable:

Yesterday, I learned that there are two crazy people in the world, Washington Nationals GM Mike Rizzo and me. Rizzo signed Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126 million contract, and I stated that Werth was projected to be worth $127 million in terms of revenue generation over this time period. I understand why this contract is universally hated. This is a huge contract, a long contract that takes Werth into his late-30s, and while most fans understand that Werth is good he’s not considered a superstar.

I agree that it’s not that far out. The problem isn’t the money but the risk associated with the years. Players might decline rapidly in their 30s, and if that happens early in the contract, the Nats have a lot of money going nowhere. Carlos Lee is a good example of what can happen halfway through a contract like this.

2 thoughts on “Reasonable Werth

  1. ptodd

    Thats why management does risk assessment.

    Looking at body type (weight, injury history, excluding injuries from getting HBP), players off season conditioning program/history (proxy for player character and motivation), lifestyle (drug/alcohol free, stable family life) etc and you may feel more comfortable with 7 years than for a player like Prince Fatso Fielder for 5 years, or CCChubby Sabathia for 6 years.

    Besides, long terms deals tend to get discounted. Werths value over the next 4 years may exceed what he is paid. This helps compensate for what may be overpay in the latter 3 years. Those who avoid risk completely do not win.

    Insurance companies take risks insuring you. If you don’t smoke, drink and are healthy they feel you are a good risk.

    Good hitting and good fielding OF’ers are a rare commodity these days. Werth the risk.

    ReplyReply
  2. Cyril Morong

    I think there have been some studies on what types of players age better than others, like weight. Anyone have links to those?

    ReplyReply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *