January 1, 2011

Delusions of Granduer

Via BBTF, NESN writer Eric Ortiz believes the 2011 Red Sox could be the greatest team of all time:

The 2011 Red Sox possess all the pieces to have a season for the ages. If everything falls into place and the breaks go their way, they could do more than set records and become champions. They could do more than take their place on Immortality Peak and end up being mentioned in the same sentence as legendary clubs of the past: the 1929 A’s, the epic Yankees teams of the ‘30s, the 1970 Orioles, the 1976 Reds.
The 2011 Red Sox could accomplish a feat that has never been done. They could unseat the 1927 Yankees as the greatest major league team of all time.

I’m sorry, I just don’t see it. The Red Sox built a foundation to be a very good team for a long time, but I just don’t see how replacing Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez with Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford makes the Red Sox better. The idea that the team will be better, as far as I can tell, comes from the idea that:

  1. Boston players won’t be injured as much in 2010 as 2011.
  2. John Lackey and Josh Beckett will bounce back from poor seasons in 2010.
  3. The relievers signed this off-season will be better than the relievers who pitched in 2010.

Of the major injuries to the Red Sox in 2010, two of them were to younger players, Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia. The team is still carrying a number of older players, three of whom (J.D. Drew, Kevin Youkilis and David Oritz) should be playing every day. Youkilis should have a lot more strain on his body playing third every day, so we’ll see how he holds up.

Lackey and Beckett could bounce back, but both are old enough where that isn’t a certainty. However, the Red Sox have an ace in Jon Lester, so the two don’t need to improve that much over 2010 to help the team get better.

Relief pitcher are small sample sizes in action. It’s very easy for great bullpen staffs to go down the next year by sheer luck. Hopes for a better bullpen are easily shattered.

Should the team be better in 2011 than they were in 2010? Sure, but if Boston had done nothing, the team would have probably gotten better as they were likely to be healthier, and pitchers in both the rotation and bullpen would likely have bounced back from poor seasons. I would not be surprised if they took the division with between 95 and 100 wins, but I doubt they’ll be the 1998 Yankees, let alone the 1927 Yankees.

5 thoughts on “Delusions of Granduer

  1. James

    That’s NESN. You aren’t supposed to take them seriously.
    Fortunately, there are other Sox Nation media sources that are a little less fanboyish.

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  2. Mr. Furious

    The only way the Sox meet those expectations would be if they somehow ended up in the NL Central.

    I’m a Sox fan and I just don’t see it. They don’t have the rotation, and they still play 40 against the Rays and Yanks.

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  4. pft

    You are absolutely right of course. You have to beware of what you read in the Boston media. NESN and the Globe are owned by the Red Sox, and other outlets are influenced to some degree as well. The media in Boston is basically a Red Sox PR arm, and this is the season to sell season tickets, so the PR machine is working overtime.

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